Tuesday, 16 June 2009

US Open

A great result last week with Brian Gay winning by 5 shots and bolstering the bank to all most the +240 mark. Once I exceed +240 units I up my ante to 20 units each week until it dips back under, when I revert back to 10 units.(over +360 the weekly units increase to 30 and so on). So, with the US Open on this week perhaps its best the bank is just under the 240 (always a difficult event to get the right result) and so with great discipline I will remain with just 10 units this week again.
Its difficult to assess who is coming into the 2nd major of the year in true form, and the probable winner is taking shape in Tiger Woods who won on this course in 2002 to beat Mickelson by 3. Tigers performance on the final day at the Memorial has me convinced that Tiger has the fight back, and the know-how to win this. Its 20 years though since Curtis Strange was the last man to win back to back US Opens, but Tiger likes to create and equal records giving me another reason he will prevail come Fathers Day. So my approach for this years Open is to take the betting w/o Tiger Woods market and opt for players who have shown decent form lately and who just might put in a good show. Steve Stricker has always given a good account of himself in the majors and is well worth a punt at 22/1. Whilst Bethpage is more suited to the longer hitters, David Toms form this year has been excellent, has won a major before, and can go close. Two of the consistent performers on the US tour this year without winning, and may be a great punt are Ben Crane & Dustin Johnson, the latter having had a number of top 10 finishes already this year.
I would not discount the chances of Paul Casey this time round and is in excellent form, but sometimes when you expect to do well it doesn't quite happen, and I feel although he may finish top 10, thats about the best he will do. Geoff Ogilvy's odds are too skinny but this course will suit him but at 16/1,it is not enticing enough. Of my regular fancies, I do think Ross Fisher & Alvaro Quiros will do well, both being big hitters, and was very tempted to have some small money on them but have opted for the Americans instead.

Bank Balance after last weeks event (YTD) +232.01

US Open Selects:
1.5 units e/w S.Stricker @ 22/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1.5 units e/w D.Toms @ 45/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1 unit e/w B.Crane @ 110/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1 unit e/w D.Johnson @ 80/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)