Tuesday, 12 October 2010

Portugal Masters 2010

BANK BALANCE AFTER DUNHILL LINKS +332.87

Martin Kaymer duly obliged for the 3rd time in a row last Sunday and for the 3rd time, he also boosted this blogs profits by 36 pts for that win at St Andrews. His win also completed the blog's 3rd winner in 4 events so lets hope the good run continues this week when the tour returns to Portugal and the Oceanico Victoria GC. Hard to pick a true favourite this week but I think the bookies have it right in Ross Fisher but for me the odds of 14/1 aren't value enough for me to be backing him. After a good opening round last week, he faded away before a good 4th rd moved him back up to a share of 11th. No doubt at all though that Ross will go well this week but I'm after a value bet for a player I think can win. That should mean I would or should be looking at one of my old favourites, Alexander Noren, who has returned to form lately- 9th in Paris and t-17th in Scotland. He should be a runner this week too on a course he shot 62 on last year and has finished in the top 20 the past 3 years. But again, best odds of 33/1 dont represent good value for me especially as his form since injury has yet to be confirmed, granted the last 2 outings are encouraging and he returns to a course he clearly likes but if he was closer to 50/1 then yes I would be on. Danny Willett, although shorter in the betting, has been knocking on the door and is due to win soon and does have a great chance this week. Simon Dyson is a player that thrives on confidence and his bold showing at St Andrews on Sunday will see him in the mood this week. My third selection this week is for a player whose form has dipped the past couple of months but has great form in this part of the world this year alone with a win, a playoff defeat and a 6th placing, Thats James Morrison !

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w S.Dyson @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes): Form player who will be buoyed by his showing last week. Quite capable in this lineup and he will fancy his chances. Partnered too with the in form John Parry for the first two days.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w D.Willett @ 22/1 (Paddypower); Getting closer each tournament and can carry on that trend again this week. Maiden win is not far away and the course will suit.

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w J.Morrison @ 150/1 (Boylesports); Won the Madeira Islands Masters this year and was beaten by Alvaro Quiros in a play-off for the Open de Espana, and was 6th at the Open de Andalucia in March suggesting this part of the world is a good place for him. He missed cut last week but had top 10 in Paris in outing before so game not in bad shape. Well worth a punt at these odds.