Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Sicilian Open 2011

Its back to the bread & butter stuff on the European Tour this week for an inaugural tournament to be play on the island of Sicily, Italy. Sadly, its a second tier field, but welcome all the same following the WGC events that proved disastrous for this blog. Its also sad that the sponsors dont see their national star players, the Molinaris & Mannesero supporting the event. Nonetheless, as always I will be looking for value in the field. I am very tempted to back Chris Wood who was beaten in a playoff back in January for the Africa Open, when I tipped him then, but I reckon he may feel the pressure to deliver here as he will surely see this as an opportunity to get that maiden win. There is no course form this week either to go on, but the weather forecasts that wind will be a significant factor and that excites me for the prospects of Shane Lowry. Its his first outing this year, has an early start and could be a great bet @ 80/1 Paddypower. He may be rusty but these conditions will suit him down to the ground and if he gets a good start then he could be there or thereabouts the weekend.
My second tip comes in the shape of Alex Noren. I can't ignore him this time round, in my view the best player in the field, its the lack of success that holds him back but he has shown good form since return from injury in the autumn last year and odds of 33/1 Paddypower are excellent for this calibre of field.
My third selection is once again a stab at an outside chance. I was contemplating backing Joost Luiten,Anthony Wall, or Robert Dinwiddie but felt their odds werent worth my 3rd tip as opposed to whopping odds for a former Major Champion ! Yes, Michael Campbell may have fallen off the face of the earth since victory at Pinehurst in 2005, but he has shown some level of improvement the past 4 months. His visit to the Middle East came unstuck in the wind (gales, but has been a good wind player so not a problem for this week)but there were a couple of very decent rounds in there. This time round he has an early start on Thursday which I believe is key for him to getting a solid start from which he can build from. he is also playing alongside Gregory Havret & Stephen Gallagher who will be solid and makes for a good threeball. the groups ahead & behind him are also of good quality so should settle him, should a Major Champion need settling. (the mind games are wrecking his scorecards these days). Its a bold decision to back him e/w- and to also back him for top 10 finish. 
This type of bet on a big odds player teeing off early on Thursday is one that I am considering on trading on Betfair in the future and would welcome any comments on trading the golf events from anyone who is currently doing this

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 33/1 (Paddypower); Quality player who should be winning again- this week gives him an ideal opportunity to do so.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 80/1 (Paddypower); The young Irishman is no stranger to windy conditions (winner of Irish Open at Baltray as an amateur) and makes his seasonal debut following a wrist injury in December in which he has taken his time to ensure full recovery. Early start on Thursday could be ideal for him too.

TIP 3: .5 pts e/w M.Campbell @ 300/1 (Betpack); Showed signs recently that the mistakes are being minimized and again an early start on Thursday should help establish his confidence for remainder of the week. Winners can get that winning feeling when in contention and 2011 could be good again for Cambo.

TIP 4: 1 pt TOP 10 FINISH M.Cambpell @ 25/1(Betpack).