Wednesday, 13 July 2011

The Open 2011

Very hard to see any American winning this week with perhaps the exception of ultra consistent, Matt Kuchar. With so many American winners over the past 20 years of the Claret Jug, surely they should be considered but recent Majors have gone elsewhere and form suggests that trend is likely to continue. Royal St.George's may not throw up a big as a challenge as was hoped with dry fairways and greens and reasonable good weather forecasted with slight rain and wind the weekend supposedly on the cards. The fact the rough hasn't grown the way the R&A wanted means scoring could be slightly better than anticipated although the par of the course is now just 70 with only 2 par 5's. Emphasis will be on putting the ball on the fairway off the tee and making as many pars as possible, taking birdies when they come. Therefore, this week it should help those who are long and straight and in good form and thats the only way to approach the staking plan. Of course, The Open does throw up outsiders regularly on the leaderboards (who would have predicted the walk in the park by Louis Oosthuizen last year?).The 3 market leaders are obvious choices and Luke Donald should really be starting out as favourite. He is in the best form of anybody but the mind games could be a factor and I am just not comfortable with Luke Donald being a Major winner for some reason. I would love to see Rory win it and he is worth backing at 10/1 this morning with William Hill. I also like to chances of Lee Westwood, I don't believe he can go without winning one and his driving should be an advantage here, if he can just hole his share of putts. He had a decent outing last week in Inverness and his major form is uncomparable to anyone else in this field in recent years. Padriag Harrington, of course chases a 3rd Claret Jug and despite a dip in form he too is a major challenger this week. I do also like Martin Kaymer's chances, he is gradually getting back to top form and had chances last year, has won the Dunhill Links and will be at ease on this course and is great value at 25/1 with Paddypower who are paying 7 places.
I have to back Ross Fisher! I have said many times he is a Major Winner in waiting. Not in great form this year but like Kaymer has been gradually improving over recent tournaments and he is a must bet for me at 80/1 with Paddypower. Ross has good major form and he will have been disappointed to have missed out on the US Open last month, an incentive to do well here this week.
My outside bet this week is in the shape of Nicolas Colsaerts at 150/1 Paddypower. The Belgian hits it a mile and is gaining consistency week in week out. Has the game to challenge for a top 7 placing here.
Retief Goosen has excellent Open form without winning it but 8 top 20 finishes in the past 10 years is an incredible effort and I can see him going well again this week so I will have small investement of him at 50/1 with Paddypower also.

TIP 1: 2 pts win Rory McIlroy @ 10/1 William Hill

TIP2: 1 pt e/w Martin Kaymer @ 25/1 Paddypower

TIP 3: .5 pts e/w Nicolas Clsaerts @ 150/1 Paddypower

TIP 4: .75 pts e/w R.Fisher @ 80/1 Paddypower

TIP 5: .75 pts e/w R.Goosen @ 50/1 Paddypower

TIP 6: .5 pts e/w P.Harrington @ 40/1 Betpack (taken over Lee Westwood due to better odds and Rory selected at 10's)