Tuesday, 7 February 2012

Omega Dubai Desert Classic 2012

After the high winds at Qatar last week, the desert swing switches to Dubai at The Emirates GC where Rory McIlroy heads the betting at 4/1 ! I wouldn't take Rory at any single figure price let alone 4s, he doesn't win often enough to have the confidence to back him when favoured to do so. Yes, of course, he will be up there and may just win it, but there is no value taking those odds. I could say the same about Martin Kaymer at 9/1 with Ladbrokes, but he will be smarting after the missed cut in Abu Dhabi and he did finish well last week despite never being in contention to win. At slightly better value is Lee Westwood at 11/1 with Boylesports but he has never won on this course before so there is doubt there.Hard to ignore both of these though this week, but the likes of Quiros, Hansen, Bjorn & Hanson will no doubt have a thing to say also. Further down the betting there is Nicholas Colsaerts who has been playing terribly well the past few weeks except for Sunday, the counting day. The Belgian is good enough to win and at 35/1 he may be just worth chancing each way. If he can focus on ball striking the weekend and let things happen he could do it and its hard to let him go.

I will however be having a punt on my favourite Alex Noren @ 66/1 with Bet365. The big hitting Swede is well suited to this course and is still overpriced for this and I feel more confident in backing him for a top 5 finish or better a win than the likes of Bjorn or Anders Hansen. He is taken over Tom Lewis @ 150/1 who I really think could be a real force on the tour. Perhaps a good e/w on the Englishman over the Belgian might have been a better call but Colsaerts is in form and is given an extra week to produce.

TIP 1: 2 pts WIN M.Kaymer @ 9/1 Ladbrokes

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w N.Colsaerts @ 35/1 Boylesports

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 66/1 Bet365