Tuesday, 2 July 2013

Open de France 2013 - Le Golf National

Over 80,000 spectators attended the Irish Open at Carton House last week where th course proved to be a hit as much as eventual winner, Paul Casey. It was fantastic to see Paul return to the winners enclosure and to do so at the Irish Open and hopefully he will kick on and now and rise up the world rankings. I say it was fantastic but from a betting perspective it wasn't as I backed Casey the previous week ! In fact he had been on my shortlist 4 times recently but overlooked for Carton House.
I've been very happy with my 10 or 12 man shortlists on the European Tour this season which has listed the eventual winner a number of times. I just need to ensure when I finalize my staking plan that I'm not leaving that eventual winner on the bench as has been the case recently. Because those shortlists are hitting the posts and "dropped" players are capitlizing without the burden of my hard earned cash on their shoulders, I'm approaching the next 2 weeks as I did for the Irish Open. I'm looking for players that are playing better than their results are showing and those that have an affinity for the course/tournament. Richard Sterne didn't get the result I was looking for last week but he played solidly enough and therefore I have to stick with him here. He is a player I daren't "dump" having seen Casey go in last week. The South African returned a 74 last Sunday when out of contention but he played beautifully and will be warmed up for Paris. He is generally available at 50/1. So what of those players on the shortlist not on my final selection? Well, I don't see the value in backing Luke Donald @ 14/1, but with regret I'm leaving Ian Poulter (25/1) out. Despite his outspoken views on the course a number of years back, Ian has supported this event a lot and has decent form and could be a contender. He was next on the list. Pablo Larrzabal is playing very well and will be disappointed not to have done better last Sunday. Former winner here too in Paris but he could be tired after recent efforts. Castano is always worth a place on any shortlist whilst Jamie Donaldson at just 40/1 was overlooked for another 40/1 shot.



Regular readers of the blog have probably been wondering when I'm putting up Ross Fisher. He was a popular pick last week but I opted to "wait & watch" and hopefully that will now pay off. Le Golf National is a top course of around 7300 yds where accurate driving is essential and a hot putter is required. Fisher is having a good season having decided to play the PGA Tour full time with his excursion back to Europe planned for this period to run into The Open at Muirfield. Ross has played 4 events in Europe lately having played Wentworth, Bro Hof, Muchen Eichenrid and Carton House with results of T32-8-T18-T22. He missed the cut last time out on the PGA Tour but recorded a TOP 10, his first of the season, at the Wells Fargo Championship before that. Ross is one of those players "simmering" and this is a course that suits despite not having played here the past 2 years. I'm taking the 40/1 with 6 places on offer.Hopefully he gets late/early draw as I feel Ross seems to perform better when faced with this draw. (silly observation of mine)

My third pick this week is David Lynn who finished T4th here last year. Lynn, like many of his European counterparts is playing most of his golf in America this year and its fair to say the Englishman is having an excellent season with 10/15 cuts made including 3 TOP 25s. He lost in a playoff to Derek Ernst at the Wells Fargo to boost his earnings and Fedex Cup points. Hopefully he brings that form here that we saw at Augusta and Sawgrass. The 66/1 on offer is too big especially with the 6 places a begging.

I'm adding a fourth & fifth pick this week again in the shape of Thorbjorn Olesen and local hope and one of those players that I don't want to "dump", Victor Dubuisson. The Dane has gone off the boil a bit lately which maybe explains the 50/1. That's OK with me as he is well capable of producing the goods any given week and he's rested and relaxed. Thats after 3 straight missed cuts, but form beforehand wasn't too bad! 3 TOP 10s in 7, including T6th at Augusta shows the potential. He missed the cut here last year but was T2nd in 2011. I'm expecting a good outing this week.

Dubuisson is a player that I like greatly and a player that is maybe trying just a bit too hard lately. He missed the cut at Carton House with  mutli coloured scorecards. Plenty of birdies mixed with bogeys and double bogeys meant he missed out for the weekend but his game is not at all bad at the moment. Frenchmen have done ok in their National Open recently and Dubuisson might be inclined to try a bit too hard again this week to do well or he may just feel relaxed being home....I'm not abandoning ship again, not with 100/1 on offer.

My 8 point(unit) staking plan is as follows:

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w R.Sterne @ 50/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 40/1

TIP 3: 0.75 pts e/w D.Lynn @ 66/1

TIP 4: 0.75 pts e/w T.Olesen @ 50/1

TIP 5: 0.5 pts e/w V.Dubuisson @ 100/1

All my picks are with Betpack who are paying 6 places this week


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