The 2nd of the WGC events takes centre stage this
week at the newly re-vamped Blue Monster Course at the Trump International at
Doral, Florida. Over $200M has been spent re-shaping, redefining and
essentially toughening up the course since Tiger won by 2 shots here 12 months
ago on a score of -19. There’s water everywhere now and there’s bigger greens,
so all the known reads from years gone by should count for nothing this week.
We’ll know soon enough what the player approach to the new course will be as
the first hole now appears to be a lot more challenging than previously and it’ll
be interesting to see the score stats on this hole compared to previous opening
rounds. But, in conclusion, we definitely have a new course, it remains to be
seen does it finally live up to its name as being a monster, at 7600 yards, it
should be.
It’s a highly competitive event this week with so many
players in form, and therefore this could go to anyone. Is Tiger fit enough to
compete and can Rory bounce back from a very disappointing final round last
Sunday? If he takes the positive from
that fantastic 2nd shot onto the 72 hole, he will be ready for this
one no doubt but, of course, us punters can’t back him with any level of certainty
with a doubt of his ability to close the deal at the minute. He could easily
have 3 wins under his belt in 2014, he should really have 2 in his locker but
he doesn’t! So is there value to be had this week? Given the field, there has
to be, and whether it is a case of taking a fair price or backing players that
are considered over-priced this week, it will be challenging for nay punter to
find the winner. I am looking at players that have both recent form and Doral
form to some extent. It’s an event where the cream normally rises to the top
and as per shortlist that I tweeted Monday; it’s these players that I’m hoping
can get in the mix come Sunday.
I don’t normally back Henrik Stenson but he’s over-priced
for me this week. Of course, most recent form suggests he is not playing his
best but if we go back to end of 2013 the Swede was in brilliant form and
despite changes (clubs etc) he has been working away on his game and will be
well freshened having spent time in Florida leading up to this in the company
of his tour buddies, Justin Rose, Lee Westwood, Graeme McDowell and Ian
Poulter. Gmac’s BBC blog post the other day did suggest that the players are
really relaxed this week which for me could really be the key to taking on the
re-vamped course and at the price available,
Stenson cannot be ignored.
I’ll echo that again with the aforementioned Graeme McDowell
and Ian Poulter. The latter may not be as prolific in the strokeplay events on
the PGA tour but he has the game to score well this week. He did suffer an
early exit at the recent matchplay but seems to be in good shape to challenge here;
after all he does have decent form in both WGC events and in Florida. I think
he’s worth chancing here. Graeme McDowell had a disappointing week last week
but he’ll be up for it considering the mates are playing too. It’s a local
event for him and has spent recent days playing rounds of golf with his Dad,
will be really relaxed and could be a big contender. 5th last year
and a player that is becoming an ever present on big tournament leaderboards,
GMAC is a definite inclusion on the staking plan. I’ve read somewhere that 20 from the last 24
winners here and either lived in Florida at the time of their win or had won in
Florida prior.
I’m sidestepping Jason Dufner this week and I hope I don’t
regret it. He made the shortlist based on price, thinking he was a bit big but
changes to the green could impact on his suspect putting so he’s reluctantly
left out to accommodate a punt on Charl Schwartzel. The former Masters champion
is playing well of late and has been for quite some time and could very well be
simmering for a long awaited win on US soil. Everything about Doral suits his
game and he’s included too. I expect a strong showing.
My final addition to the staking plan is a play on Kevin
Streelman who continues to represent some value on the books. Quite capable of
winning any given week and his price really is too big.
Staking Plan (8 pts/units)
1 pt WIN Stenson @ 41.00
0.5 pts WIN
Poulter @ 101.00
1 pt e/w McDowell @ 46.00
1 pt WIN
Schwartzel @ 46.00
.50 pts WIN
Streelman @ 150/1
TOP 10
1 pt Poulter @ 9.00
1 pt Streelman @ 11.00
1 pt Schwartzel @
4.33
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