We haven't had a winner on the blog since Martin Kaymer's victory at Pinehurst in June, despite a number of placings, but last week's effort was probably the worst week in quite awhile with none in contention at any time throughout the two tournaments. Hopefully, that's the bad week out of the way and we can find some profit this week in Holland where Joost Luiten looks to defend his home National Title that he won after beating Miguel Angel Jiminez in a playoff twelve months ago.
The
course is par 70, 6600-yard course with 3 par5s and 5 par3s. Ireland’s Darren
Clarke won here in 2008 and it’s a course that Irish players have fared well on
in the past. A fellow tipster on twitter tweeted this morning that Clarke's average score at Kennemer is 66.38 over his last 8 rounds, that's the best of anyone in the field this week including two time winner, Simon Dyson. One such Irish player with a good track record here is Damien
McGrane. From his last 6 visits on this course, the Meathman has pocketed results
of 3- 4-20-MC-3-9 so he should be quietly confident of posting a decent score
again this time round. Peter Lawrie who produced an excellent 62 on Saturday in
the European Masters boasts two TOP10s here and given his position in the order
of merit he could do with a big week in Holland. He has a huge incentive and
we’ve seen it happen many times when players raise their game at the end of the
season to keep their card. Graeme Storm is the latest such example. This time
last year we saw Justin Walters secure his card with a heroic effort to finish
second at the Portugal Masters so soon after the passing of his mother. On the
bubble at 110 is Gareth Maybin, who like Lawrie has hit a bit of form lately
and he’ll need to play well over the next few weeks if he is to secure his
card. I mention these Irish players as Kennemer has been kind to Irish players as well as the British players. It is very much a linksy type course where accuracy is key moreso than power! It's a Harry Colt design so perhaps that's another reason why they do so well and as Ross Fisher, forever a player in my betting thoughts each week, has won here before (his first win on tour) he comes into consideration this week despite letting me down last week. As mentioned, so too does Darren Clarke who I felt was getting near his best and backed him also last week.
Referring back to those players now scrapping for their 2015 card, I do like the chances of a player that has hit form in his last couple of tournaments to go well here. Lee Slattery has produced two TOP10s in Switzerland and Italy in his last two starts.
The Englishman can boast a best 4th and another TOP15 at Kennemer
and he is taken to keep the momentum going and play well again this week. He
missed the cut twelve months go despite a solid 66 in round two, but arrives
this week having played the weekend in Crans in 65 and 66. Lee is now best price 80/1 which I think is great value given his recent and course form.
Local hope Dan Huizing has not had the best of seasons on the full tour is has to be said but recent results show that the Dutchman is starting to produce some solid results. His last five events read mc-35-23-mc-12. He sits at 137 in the Race to Dubai so will need some good results over the next few weeks if he is to retain his card and this week represents a golden opportunity to perform well. He'll take positives from his fellow countryman winning on home soil last year.
With Darren being a little short @ 80/1 despite his course record, I will opt for Damien McGrane instead @ 100/1 to reproduce a fine performance around Kennemer given his record as mentioned earlier in the post. Damien seems to love it here and he has been in decent form of late having narrowly missed out in Russia he has hinted that a good week is coming for some time.
I have to include Pablo Larrazabal this week @ 80/1, a price I think is over generous. Yes, he missed the cut in Crans as he did the previous event at Valhalla but Pablo is the sort of player that can get on with the job the week after and put in a challenge. Prior to the PGA Championship, Pablo was last seen at Firestone and Hoylake, so having returned to the standard fare in Switzerland, missing the cut and arriving in Holland early, I expect the Spaniard to be in the mood to improve on his T9th finish from twelve months ago. Incidentally he was T2nd at the Silversumsche Golf Club in 2012 so being in Holland may just be the ticket !
If you fancy winning a place in the Pro-Am at the Portugal Masters in October and passes to the tournament on the Thursday, why not enter here for a chance to do so including 3 nights B&B at the Tivoli Victoria Golf Resort (*flights not included)
Staking Plan (8.5 pts)
1 pt e/w Ross Fisher @ 40/1 Betfair
0.5 pts WIN L. Slattery @ 80/1 Betfair
0.5 pts WIN D. McGrane @ 100/1 Betfair
0.5 pts e/w P. Larrazabal @ 80/1 Titanbet
1.5 pts TOP10 L.Slattery @ 15/2 BetVictor
1.5 pts TOP10 D. McGrane @ 11/1 Betpack
1.5 pts TOP20 D. Huizing @ 5/1 Ladbrokes
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