Tuesday, 28 February 2017

Tshwane Open 2017 - Pretoria CC

Following torrential rain last week in Johannesburg where the Sunshine Tour & Europeantour decided not to go to a Monday finish, action heads west for the Tshwane Open to be played at the exclusive Pretoria CC. I wonder if there wasn't a WGC event on this week, would the ruling bodies have gone to a Monday finish last week ? Weather forecast is much better this week and it looks like we will get 4 rounds in. The Tshwane Open has been cursed with bad weather in the past!

It was a frustrating week for us last week as our TOP10 bet, Dylan Fritelli hovered around the 10th placing all week before settling for a T16th just 2 shots back. Graeme Storm never got going and needed a low one to finish higher than his result of T38 and grab some T20 money, but it was an event to forget about. Over on the PGA Tour, both selections threatened to deliver tidy profit. Seán O'Hair did finish TOP20 and Jason Dufner double-bogeyed his 71st hole to shut the door on a TOP10 payout.

We go again

The Course


Pretoria CC is an old course and short at just 6800 yds over a par of 70. Its the home course to market leader, George Coetzee who won here two years ago with a score of 266 (-14). He needed a closing 65 to see of Jacques Blaauw by a shot who closed with a 61. However, they were both a few shots ahead of the rest of the field and so was Charl Schwartzel when he romped to a 8 shot victory twelve months ago with a score of 264. It's worth noting that just 20 players bettered par last year. Judging by twitter feeds during the week from the players practicing we must take note of the rough in play, putting emphasis on accuracy this week. David Horsey reckons though if it dries out it will be ok! With accuracy a premium, it should mean Thomas Aiken makes the shortlist, but its time to leave the Joburger off the shortlist for the foreseeable future as he just doesn't seem to perform when the opportunity for him to do so manifests itself.  In my opinion, George Coetzee, who is no stranger to the course having been brought up playing on the course, will be the man to beat this week.

For a flyover of Pretoria CC, have a look at this video here (might be an idea to watch with sound off 😉)





Selections


George Coetzee really should prevail here this week. He has the course knowledge to see it out and seems to be coming into form nicely for his home event. Dean Burmester is another in solid form and was runner-up to Schwartzel last year. He is just too short for me here. So why Coetzee @ 11.40 ? From my shortlist posted on Monday, I had big George priced @ 10.00 hence a small bit of value ? But that tissue was based on Romain Watell and Gregory Bourdy being in the field as well and given their withdrawals I revised his price to 9.00 and perhaps on reflection he could be considered even less than that. Granted he's not a formidable winner on tour but having returned to action following injury it's hard to ignore the progressive form and he really is a different player in South Africa, not to mention playing in his backyard. Given that the South Africans continually dominate these co-sanctioned events, George Coetzee is hard to ignore in this quality of field. As per my preview last week, I think some players should feel some fatigue having been on the road for a number of weeks, Ryan Fox in particular must be knackered at this stage, and so, those used to home comforts not to mention their own beds, should take advantage. James Morrison is in form but I would have liked a bigger price to get involved and David Horsey just missed out on the shortlist on the back of recent form where the results shout  a number of successive "MC"s . He has course form here and maybe a visit this week can re-ignite his season. Instead, I'll settle on just two picks this week and keep faith with Dylan Frittelli @ 34.00. He just missed out on some profit for us last week but in finishing TOP20 maintained the form of late. 14th last year and T10th the year before suggests augurs well especially as he could argue to be in much form this time round.

2.50 pts win G. Coetzee @ 11.40
1.00 pts win D.Frittelli @ 34.00

2.50 pts TOP10 D.Frittelli @ 4.50