Wednesday, 14 January 2015

Sony Open 2015

PGA action stays in Hawaii this week but we have a different setup to last week and a much bigger field as opposed to that of the Tournament of Champions which finished on Monday. Jimmy Walker will be looking to put the disappointment behind him very quickly here but he may have missed his chance last week and the best odds still available at 17.00 don't excite me at all. Same goes with Matt Kuchar who really disappointed last week but could be excused for rustiness and he does like Waialee GC this week but again 21.00 is just a bit short for a player that doesn't win often enough. Of the market leaders though, I do like the chances of last Monday's fast finisher, Chris Kirk @ 20/1. Kirk has stated in the past that this course and tournament is one of his favourite three courses and given the level of confidence he is at right now to complement his 62 on Monday, he must be a contender here this year.

Kirk finished 2nd twelve months ago and produced a TOP5 the year previously. His fifth visit could see him go one better and his game is the best shape of is career right now. The course will suit accurate players with strong GIR stats, it will suit those with a draw off the tee (right to left) and this is Kirk to a tee.

Kevin Streelman was tipped before the Christmas break and I'm happy to keep in my thoughts for the time being on a course that suits him. I think he is way overpriced @ 85.00 for the win and @ 7.5 for TOP10. A 26th place is his best effort to date, back in 2013 but he's been playing well of late and if the wind gets up he could be a contender. He's one to watch out for this season at this price and is kept onside for the time being.

I had fancied former winner Russel Henley for this but his strong showing last week has seen his price slashed since Monday and all the perceived value is gone as best price now is 25/1. Its a fair price but I'd prefer to take a chance instead on Paul Casey @ 90/1 with Betpack, & 10/1 for TOP10. 4.50 for TOP20 cannot be ignored either. Casey has shown he can play in windy conditions and on linksy type courses. A recent father, he will have enjoyed that first Christmas as one and will be fired up for 2015 as he too makes his comeback. Its ten years since his last visit here but there's been a few lean years in between, so he's taken on ability and price to do well this week. If he can get a decent start with an early start off the 10th tee, the Englishman can grab a TOP20 here.

My final pick this week is Jeff Overton on the back of solid Waialee form - 7th & 8th the past two years ! He also has a TOP20 from 4 years ago. Hasn't played since the Mayakoba in November but his TOP30 finish suggests his form is ok and if he wants to put his December descretions behind him and concentrate on golf rather than basketball and his beloved Hoosiers, then this is the place for him to do so.


Staking Plan

2 pts WIN C.Kirk @ 21.00
1 pt WIn K.Streelman @ 85.00
0.5 pts WIN P.Casey @ 91.00

1.50 pts TOP 10 K.Streelman @ 7.5

3.25 pts TOP20 P.Casey @ 4.50
2.25 pts TOP20 J.Overton @ 5.50