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Tuesday, 30 June 2009

Open de France

Nothing much to say about last week's effort, easily the worst tournament for me this year with both men not only missing the cut but finishing practically in the bottom 20. So roll on this week ! This could be anyones this week although there is quite a good field and the difficulty in picking the winner is reflected in the bookies prices in that they seem unable to separate the real contenders. I am confident that Lee Westwood can return to a challenging position this week and even at odds of just 18/1 I have to have an interest. Lee had a reasonably good US Open and maybe pumped up for this.
The value bets this week I am opting for are Fabrizio Zanotti, reason being quite simply at 100/1, he is an exceptional player who can give me a run for my money and win.Gonazalo Castano had an exceptional March/April this year and at 66/1 he may just return to challenging form this week also. Padraig Harrington returns this week and although I have a sneaky feeling Padraig might just have a good week, his odds of 25/1 may normally be good value but his latest form doesn't inspire the confidence over the hunch.

Bank Balance after BMW International (YTD) +212.01

Open de France Selects:

3 units e/w L.Westwood @ 18/1
1 unit e/w F.Zanotti @ 100/1
1 unit e/w G.Fdez Castano @ 66/1

Wednesday, 24 June 2009

BMW International

Hopefully the European summer is finally upon us and we can have a tournament without the rain & wind playing havoc to the outcome. No joy at the US Open last week but again another tournament ruined by the weather. Some of the fancied golfers to win in Germany this week may and I hope, be feeling the effects of their efforts at Bethpage last weekend so its a punt on two of my previous tips this year who I believe will win this season. Alvaro Quiros will like the course this week and although only 25/1 I fancy him to produce a good showing this week. Thomas Aiken has been playing better than just good this season and at 66/1 I cannot ignore him. He will be refreshed too coming into this and if he has good opening round I expect him to challenge come Sunday. Others I fancied are Fasth (good German soil record) but I think the bookies have got it right this week at 40/1 which is a bit skinny for a player who is only starting to show solid form and Fabrizio Zanotti, who is quite tempting at 100/1. I have decided to stick with the two picks in good faith they will deliver soon. (Ross Fisher considered last week but omitted and finished 5th)

Bank balance after US Open (YTD) + 222.01

BMW International Selects

2.5 units e/w A.Quiros @ 25/1
2.5 units e/w T. Aiken @ 66/1

Tuesday, 16 June 2009

US Open

A great result last week with Brian Gay winning by 5 shots and bolstering the bank to all most the +240 mark. Once I exceed +240 units I up my ante to 20 units each week until it dips back under, when I revert back to 10 units.(over +360 the weekly units increase to 30 and so on). So, with the US Open on this week perhaps its best the bank is just under the 240 (always a difficult event to get the right result) and so with great discipline I will remain with just 10 units this week again.
Its difficult to assess who is coming into the 2nd major of the year in true form, and the probable winner is taking shape in Tiger Woods who won on this course in 2002 to beat Mickelson by 3. Tigers performance on the final day at the Memorial has me convinced that Tiger has the fight back, and the know-how to win this. Its 20 years though since Curtis Strange was the last man to win back to back US Opens, but Tiger likes to create and equal records giving me another reason he will prevail come Fathers Day. So my approach for this years Open is to take the betting w/o Tiger Woods market and opt for players who have shown decent form lately and who just might put in a good show. Steve Stricker has always given a good account of himself in the majors and is well worth a punt at 22/1. Whilst Bethpage is more suited to the longer hitters, David Toms form this year has been excellent, has won a major before, and can go close. Two of the consistent performers on the US tour this year without winning, and may be a great punt are Ben Crane & Dustin Johnson, the latter having had a number of top 10 finishes already this year.
I would not discount the chances of Paul Casey this time round and is in excellent form, but sometimes when you expect to do well it doesn't quite happen, and I feel although he may finish top 10, thats about the best he will do. Geoff Ogilvy's odds are too skinny but this course will suit him but at 16/1,it is not enticing enough. Of my regular fancies, I do think Ross Fisher & Alvaro Quiros will do well, both being big hitters, and was very tempted to have some small money on them but have opted for the Americans instead.

Bank Balance after last weeks event (YTD) +232.01

US Open Selects:
1.5 units e/w S.Stricker @ 22/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1.5 units e/w D.Toms @ 45/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1 unit e/w B.Crane @ 110/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)
1 unit e/w D.Johnson @ 80/1 (w/o Tiger Woods)

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

St Jude Classic

Yet another disappointing end to last weeks tournament with the weather once again playing havoc to the scores on moving day, Saturday. My select Ross Fisher was nicely placed after 2 rounds and lay just 3 off the lead going into the final rd but two doubles on the front nine put paid to his chances.
This week there is no event on the European Tour, so in order to get into the mood for next weeks 2nd Major of the year, two selections are chosen for the St Jude Classic. David Toms should go well at this event ( 2 wins and 6/7 top 10 finishes the past 9 years) but at 16/1 the odds are a little too skinny. My two selections have good form at this event especially "Freddie J" (Jacobsen) and at 66/1 he has to be considered this week. Brian Gay has the stats to suggest he will go well on this tight course and the odds of 35/1 are just about right to have a flutter.

Bank Balance after Wales Open (YTD) +127.63

St Jude Classic Selections

2.5 units e/w B.Gay @ 35/1
2.5 units e/w F.Jacobsen @ 66/1

Monday, 1 June 2009

Celtic Manor Wales Open

A poor field tees up in Wales this week,well not as strong as the past 3 weeks with the big guns eyeing up Bethpage next week. Ross Fisher leads the betting and rightly so, and even at 12/1 I am very tempted. Looking through the field its hard to see who is coming in with good form from last week, especially as the back nine at London GC seemed to play, or at least seem to appear by the scorecard, as a "crazy golf" course, with my man, Thomas Aiken certainly feeling the effects of the fourteenth and fifteenth on Saturday when lying just one off the lead, he ran up a triple & quadruple to miss the cut!Nonetheless some players are still continuing to show good form week by week.These are Stephen Dodd,Gary Orr, Chris Wood and Anthony Wall in particular. Of the four I would pick Wood (40/1) but I will sidestep him (costly last week sidestepping Quiros who placed and should have won!).Francesco Molinari has played very well last month and I will have to have interest in him this week.Shiv Kapur has also been playing quite well and at generous odds of 175/1 he too has to be considered. So this week its a few units on Fisher to win(think he by far bext player in field), Moinari & Kapur

Bank Balance after European Open (YTD) +137.63

Celtic Manor Wales Open Selects

3 units win Ross Fisher @ 12/1
2.5 units e/w F.Molinari @ 25/1
1 unit e/w S.Kapur @ 175/1