DP World Tour Championship 2020 - Earth Course, Jumeirah Estates, Dubai

 The curtain falls on what has been an extraordinary European Tour season and one that the Tour committee can be proud of producing given the circumstances that hit them. They are rewarded with a fairly strong field too this week where 5 Major champions are in the field with current PGA Champion, Collin Morikawa teeing it up with his compatriot and regular Dubai and Europeantour supported Patrick Reed. Indeed, its Reed who leads the Race to Dubai and if he can produce a similar results to his last 4 visits here then he's most likely to be the coveted European Tour Race to Dubai Champion. Reed was only a lowly 28th last year but was 2nd in 2018, and 10th in both 2017 & 2015 on his two only other appearances. He quite rightly heads the betting ahead of Tyrell Hatton who has produced some superb golf over the last few months and will be hoping to finish the year off in style.

Tommy Fleetwood will try go one better than twelve months ago and Viktor Hovland arrives on the back of his 2nd PGA tour victory last week, whilst Sungjae Im gets an invite to make his debut. Its a competitive looking field as is there but throw in the likes of hat-trick seeking Bezuidenhout, Fitzpatrick, Wallace, Wiesberger, Pieters and Andy Sullivan, then  its bound to be an interesting week ahead and gives us the viewer a nice send off for 2020. 

There are a lot of players arriving with half decent form under their belts, well we expect that given its the usual TOP-60 who qualify for this but there's one player I'm keen to be onside with this week and that's Aaron Rai who took out the Scottish Open the week after almost winning at Galgorm Castle. He was 3rd at Fairmont St. Andrews later that same month before taking a well deserved break before reappearing last week in Dubai on the neighbouring Fire Course for a lowly 50th placing. Having shaken off the cobwebs and settled in for the week, the Englishman has found his comfort zone on the Europeantour and will surely make his intent known for the season ahead and go in search of climbing into the World's TOP-50. Course form though is a slight put-off, but we have a much improved player now and one that should find this course to his liking despite his apparent lack of distance off the tee. Very apt in bogey avoidance this year and his approach game has been very strong, if he can hole his share of putts and put in an improved performance on the greens he could go very well @ 66/1 with 7 places a begging.

Winner at Valderrama and the aforementioned Galgorm Castle this year, John Catlin has made huge inroads in his touring like and he sees himself here this week as a rank outsider. Winning the Irish Open as well as at Valderrama shows his potential and given that he's won plenty on the Asian Tour, the American won't be fazed this week. Afterall, he won on debut in Ballymena and won at Valderrama having missed the cut on his previous visit. Like Rai, he may lack off the tee but he's similar in that he is accurate and does hole more putts; at least this season anyway. He's a bit of value in my book @ 125/1 with the 7 places on offer

Lastly, I will keep Wil Besseling on the staking plan this week despite there being a risk of fatigue with the Dutchman. 8 TOP-20s from his 19 starts this year assures us he's had a good season having been promoted from the Challenge Tour. No other reason than to stick with him one last time for the season finale in the hope that he clicks @ 150/1 - 7 places. 

I was tempted by Martin Kaymer this week but the 40s on offer seemed to hold the last 3 days which is a fair price. He's definitely one to watch in-play for me.

Selections

0.75 pts e/w A. Rai @ 66/1 - 7 places

0.75 pts e/w J. Catlin @ 125/1 - 7 places

0.25 pts e/w W. Besseling @ 150/1 - 7 places

Mayakoba Classic 2020 - El Chameleon GC, Mexico

 4 selections for me this week and again it's a case of simply keeping the faith with players I've backed of late,who have performed well and can do so again and hopefully bring some profit in.

Chez Rescue is added to the stable due to solid course form here as too is Joel Dahmen. They join Chris Kirk and Joaquin Niemann for the week ahead where tidy accurate play will prevail.

Selections

1 PT e/w J. Niemann @ 40/1 - 6 places

1 PT e/w J. Dahmen @ 66/1 - 8 places

 1 PT e/w C. Reavie @ 60/1 - 8 places

0.50 PTS e/w C. Kirk @ 100/1 - 8 places 

Golf in Dubai Championship 2020 - Jumeirah Estate Golf Resort

 Dubai hosts the final two events of the European Tour and we have a Wednesday start for this event to be played at the resort on the Fire Course ahead of next week's finale to be played on the Earth Course. 

I'm backing three players for this,one who has been part of a few staking plans this season and who I feel has had decent results without really clinching the one that would make his season complete and that is Wil Besseling. Three TOP-20s from his last 4 starts shows he's in fine form and the Fire Course should be to his liking here to continue a run of good results. 

I'm also going back in on Alexander Bjork who will probably be glad to see the end of the season and look forward to the new one but his game is not that far away and he's my idea of a player under the radar this week. The Swede has UAE as well as extended Middle East form when finishing 6th at the Qatar Masters earlier this year and 12th at the Earth Course twelve months ago. He is a lively contender @ 66/1 (60/1 7 places)

Finally, a bit of a stab with my final selection in the shape of Clement Sordet but I was close to putting him up in a few tournaments year but decided to keep an eye, but it's been a disappointing season so far for the Frenchman. However, I'm hoping he might be motivated this week for his Dubai challenge as he has form in neighbouring Oman and his game like Bjork,is improving. 

I'll be back tomorrow with my Mayakoba Classic picks but I will not be getting involved in the South African Open.

Selections

1 PT e/w W. Besseling @  50/1 - 7 places

1 PT e/w A. Bjork @ 60/1 - 7 places

0.50 PTS e/w C. Sordet @ 200/1 - 8 places 

Alfred Dunhill Championship 2020 - Leopard Creek, South Africa

 Apologies once again, but have run out of time for a preview this week. That said having re-read last week's, perhaps its better that I don't rush them going forward as even I struggled to enjoy reading it, it was that badly written! Anyway, I have had a look at a number of potential players for this week's event at Leopard Creek, which is such a stunning course, and I'm not altogether convinced the outright market leader should be the price he is so hopefully someone further down the list can take this one out and we can get onboard. I like Brandon Stone for sure, but he's too short for me this week, indeed I had him nearer the 18-20/1 price range.

I think the following players have a chance of winning this week and have backed them accordingly. I had considered Richard Bland here also in both the outright & TOP20 markets but wanted to leave it at a maximum of 10u risk for the event

Selections

1 pt e/w M. Schwab @ 33/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w L. Canter @ 33/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w G. Higgo @ 33/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w J. Campillo @ 40/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w W. Besseling @ 59/1 - 7 places

RSM Classic 2020 - Sea Island Resort, Goergia

 A very good field tees it up at Sea Island Resort in Georgia following a successful Masters last week at Augusta. Two courses as usual for the RSM Classic will be in play this week; The Seaside & The Plantation, with the former to be used for the weekend. making it in play for three of the four rounds. We have 150 players, with former winner, Bill Haas now withdrawn having tested positive for Covid-19.

Whether those that played last week have the focus and strength to comedown from the emotions of The Masters remains to be seen, but things are indeed different this year and the players may just pick up where they left off here and go into the week as per normal. Yes, in the past, the RBC Heritage usually follows the week after, but this year it's later (The Masters) and we have the RSM Classic at Sea Island instead. At the RBC Heritage , the trend showed that those that were playing the weekend at Augusta fared poorly the week after with perhaps one exception when Matt Kuchar finished T-5. It may in some small part be due to the exertions and high emotions in playing both the iconic Major and the course and all that it entails. I'm not quite convinced that this will follow the same trend this week. Schedules for all have been changed throughout 2020 and I genuinely believe a lot of the players are very grateful to be able to continue plying their trade and this seems to be reflected in the quality of the fields each week and in particular here, a week after the Masters to see such a strong one and which was emphasized by OWGR exponent, @Nosferatu on twitter the other day when he revealed that the OWGR SOF for this week is estimated to be 52 pts compared to a best of 42 previously. I also believe the tour is as strong now in quality than ever before and that players realize they do need to compete to their best to make their way...the days of the old "journeyman" making cuts may not change significantly but you need to make more cuts than ever to keep that all important tour card. Whilst you can argue than any player on tour tees it up every week hoping to play his best to win, some do give up and resign themselves to the "there's always next week" mentality when the cut-line looks to be out of reach or indeed the TOP-10 etc. There is certainly a lot of value in the up and coming players this week but the question is just how many do we get onside with? 

Do we oppose Webb Simpson, the market leader purely because he's 1. too short or 2. played well at Augusta last week ? Does Webb represent any value at all @ 9/1? Perhaps not or indeed the price might actually be fair based on his course and tournament form not to mention the consistency he has shown the past 18 months or more. Between the McGladrey Classic as previously known and the RSM when they stepped in, there has been 10 editions, with Simpson having teed it up in 8 of them. 12th on debut back in 2010, he has since been beaten twice in playoffs (2011 & 2019), not to mention a 3rd place finish in 2018 with a weekend 63-65 to fall just one shot short. The 2018 run followed his withdrawal after 2 rounds in 2017 when lying 12th so that he could attend to his father who's health had deteriorated before passing away the week after. This tournament is close to Webb Simpson and having gone so close in the past, he would like to win this to mark his father's anniversary. As a punter, I feel he cannot be ignored this week even @ 9/1. I haven't looked at the Joburg Open in too much detail this week but have backed Webb and Garrick Higgo in a double, thinking that was best how to get onside with Webb. But I'm now pulling the trigger on him to win for the blog. 

Joacquin Niemann is added to the staking plan firstly on the back of my theme to stick with players who I have tipped and backed previously this year. The Chilean has provided decent returns for the blog already this year and I think he can go well here this week given his iron play is ideal for the shots required to score well. He had a run for 65th here two years ago on his only visit but recent form in the new 2021 shows he's in great nick with 3 TOP-20s from his 4 starts (incl. a T-10 @ The CJ Cup). No debut at Augusta last week but he's surely heading for April invitation and he will be fresh having not played since 17th @ the ZOZO Championship. 35/1 does give us a bit of value in my opinion as I had him 25 - 28/1 for this one.

Former winner, Kevin Kisner surely goes well again this week at a decent 40/1 ? Winner in 2015, Kis also finished 4th in 2014 & 2017 to complement a 7th (2018) and 20th (2013). Missing the cut last week is nothing of concern....he'll be better suited for Sea Island.

Chris Kirk and Talor Gooch complete my staking plan here at loner odds. The former has been backed by this blog already this year and along with Niemann, he is kept onside here as form this year is encouraging and he returns to a track that he too has won before(2013). Kirk went to college in Georgia and has a strong affinity in this area having been raised near Atlanta. As written in previous post, Kirk is recovering from personal issues and returned to the Korn Ferry Tour this year where he took out the King & Bear Classic in Florida with a -26 winning score. Since that unexpectant victory, Kirk has played consistently without really threatening leaderboards but the hope this week that for a "home game" he can raise his game a bit more @ 150/1! Gooch is borderline priced for me @ 55/1 with 8 places having priced him @ 50s. I wanted to leave him out for Zach Johnson instead but am drawn to his chances here this week. He may only be 1/3 visits here (23rd last year) but his recent form is eye catching with returns of  4-35-5 in his last 3 starts and he may be ready to continue this form having had the week off last week following the strong 4th placing at a tough Houston Open.

Selections

2 pts WIN W. Simpson @ 10.50

1 pt e/w J. Niemann @ 33/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w K. Kisner @ 40/1 - 8 places

0.50 pts e/w C. Kirk @ 150/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w T. Gooch @ 55/1 - 8 places

 

The Masters 2020 - November @ Augusta National

 We usually grow impatient around the end of January, early February counting down the weeks and tournaments to the first Major of the year, but for The Masters 2020, we've had to wait forever it seems! Augusta National should look completely different this week to what we are used to seeing unless the groundsmen have imported bucket loads of azaleas and produced some magnolias on the drive up to the clubhouse! Indeed we wont have any spectators, sorry, patrons to roar the players on making Augusta National a very cold and strange arena for the players this week. Not only will spectators be missing but the players will have limited backroom team members available to them for the week at the course; just player and caddy and their coach plus one other can attend. It will be a Masters like no other...except we do expect the likely contenders to be on top of the leaderboard come Sunday. 

Augusta is long any time of the year but it should play very long this week in the midst of autumn and will, as always, favour the big hitters. That of course lends weight to the Bryson DeChambeau show and his chances to go back to back in Majors. He heads the market but I'm not sure he should. Augusta though has proven over the years though that its not just being big off the tee; a good approach game is a definite prerequisite to donning the green jacket as is the nuance to putt well on these slick, super fast greens. Whether the greens run as fast this week as they normally would in April remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if the course is ready to go and presented as close to what it can be should it have been an April date. 

For me, Dustin Johnson showed in Texas last week on his first appearance following recovery from COVID-19 that his game is there and in great nick and he holds the form he showed in the FedEX Cup playoff series. DJ has the power too for Augusta and he managed to eagle three holes in his 3rd round here back in 2015. As Justin Ray of the 15th Club has pointed out, DJ is a combined -29 for his past 5 appearances here with only a 2020 out of form, Jordan Spieth scoring better. The more I look at the field the more open it appears but it certainly looks like the winner will emerge from the leading contenders and of those DJ & Rory McIlroy interest me the most. As a big Justin Thomas fan, I'm reeling that I can't get onside with him as well, but having considered the potential winner from the three as well as Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau , its the World Number One & the Grand Slam-chasing McIlroy who I think are the best options. DJ has served his time and has been unlucky in some Majors, but he'll arrive this week in as good a nick as he has ever been for The Masters and if he keeps his putter hot he'll be the man to beat.

Rory McIlroy has had a "poor-ish" season by his own standards, but the Major winning Irishman didn't win an awful lot of tournaments back in 2011 when he started his Major haul, much like Brooks Koepka, saving his best for the big ones. Recent fatherhood may explain some dip in form throughout this year and with COVID-19 very dominant also, the season's results will not have bothered him as much as he prepares for the one and only goal he set from the outset and that was to complete the Major Grand Slam and become just the 5th golf in history to achieve the feat. Rory's tee to green game, his controlled draw off the tee and his sharp approach play are all ideal for Augusta and if he eliminates the mistakes he can focus on the mission at hand and enter the history books....

I've been backing Shane Lowry (100.00 - 120.00) and Bubba Watson (55.00 - 80.00)  for a couple of months now so I've got plenty of value onside already but as the week looms, Bubba @ >30/1 is still worth considering. (I had written Shano's chances off until he played well at Houston but he needs to control that driver if he's to produce a decent Augusta result).Gunning for his 3rd jacket here, Bubba brings recent form into the week on a course he simply loves. 4th last time out at the ZOZO Championship and 7th the week before at the CJ Cup, Bubba is in great form and his approach play is very strong of late...he simply loves Augusta where his results prove such ; 12th last year and 5th the year before having won in 2014 & 2012.

 Jason Day could be a factor but its very difficult to back this guy not knowing whether he will suffer from man-flu or something else and withdraw on you. Rickie Fowler has been too quiet this season to really consider but could give you a run for your money in the TOP-10/20 markets @ 6/1 & 2/1 respectively. Justin Rose is a player I've backed a few times here just like I did with Lee Westwood and whilst both have contended very well, it's hard to see either of them winning it now but there is some value in their prices with 8 to 10 places abegging with most bookies this week @ 67.00 & 111.00.

Adam Scott won at Riviera earlier this season and for me could very well be the dark horse...if you consider a former Masters Champion a dark horse. Another, like DJ & Tony Finau and unfortunately, Sergio Garcia, who will miss the tournament this week,  tesed positive for COVID-19 last month before returning last week in Houston.  However, 40/1 although fair isn't enough for a bet although some 45s are still available.

Selections

3 pts e/w D. Johnson @ 10/1 - 10 places
2 pts e/w R. McIlroy @ 14/1 - 9 places

1.5 pts e/w B. Watson @ 30/1 - 8 places

0.50 pts e/w J. Rose @ 66/1 - 8 places

0.25 pts e/w L. Westwood @ 110/1 - 8 places

  

Houston Open 2020 - Memorial Park, Houston Texas

 Not used since 1963 and since undergone renovations, Memorial Park, Houston is essentially a new course for us this week on the PGA Tour. It looks like it will be low scoring with the greatest challenge likely to come on the bermuda, sloping greens. Once week before the Masters, the field sees Dustin Johnson return to action following COVID-19 as well as Phil Mickelson who does tend to like playing and winning the week before a Major.

I've opted for three very good value selections this week as per below. ( I will now focus on a preview ahead of the Masters so no real preview and insight to the three selections other than Chappell has already shown some form since his return to the tour lately, whilst McCarthy & Redman have been shown solid form the past few months and could have their eyes on winning soon at decent prices if not contend strongly to bag a TOP-10/20)

Selections

1 pt e/w Doc Redman @ 40/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w Denny McCarthy @ 60/1 - 8 places

0.25 pts e/w Kevin Chappell @ 250/1 - 8 places

1.5 pts TOP-20 Kevin Chappell @ 10/1

Bermuda Championship 2020 - Port Royal GC, Bermuda

 I wasn't going to get really involved in the Bermuda Championship this week, but the more I look at Henrik Stenson's price, the more I feel inclined to have an interest. 

A links type-ish course with loads of wind forecasted the weekend, will try the patience of a saint and perhaps suit The Iceman and Ireland's Padraig Harrington (who makes a surprise trip). The Open Champions should have both the type of game needed here as well as the experience to stay patient and when looking at the market leaders I can't figure out the Swedes price @ 40/1 with 8 places abegging. Stenson sits outside the OWGR TOP-50, just, and he may see this week as an opportunity to gain some points, in his warm up for Augusta in a couple of weeks. If OWGR rankings are your thing then only defending champion, Brendon Todd at #41 ranks better, with Will Zalatoris  at #59 (Stenson #54). The KFT graduate may well indeed bring the better form of late but is he really a THIRD of Stenson's price ?

The price is too tempting to leave this event alone....I made him 25/1 -28/1 against this field where he wont need driver off the tee for most of his round and if he gets a fast enough start he may just be the one they all have to beat. His mid day tee time playing alongside another Open Champion, Stewart Cink and Pat Perez is favourable too.

Selection

2 pts WIN H. Stenson @ 46.00

2 pts E/W  H. Stenson @ 40/1 - 8 places

Cyprus Open 2020 - Aphrodites Hill, Paphos, Cyprus

 A new tournament and a new venue this week on the Europeantour as the Euro-Bubble heads for Cyprus. We have very little to go on in terms of course experience only that it will or should I say be wind affected but as nearly always in Cyprus, the weather looks to be excellent for the week ahead with pleasant high-20s forecasted. The course looks like it will yield a ton of birdies again this week and having seen a poorish field last week where we got a very unexpectant winner, I'm not going to dive in here, but keep it to a minimum after such a great week in California for the blog last week.

Nicolas Colsaerts @ 50.00 on the exchange is a bet for me here this week following his strong showing last week and the "Belgian Bomber" may find Cyprus not too dissimilar to Mauritius where he has been attached to Anahita GC there for some years now. Having won the Open de France this time last year too, autumn has been good to Nico over the years and he can ride the form he showed last week into another challenge at a resort that should be to his liking. He was 2nd behind McGowan in the SG:A and if he is dialled in in Paphos, he can ride a wave of confidence in a field he really should be competitive in. 

Selection

2 pts N. Colsaerts WIN @ 50.00

2 pts e/w N. Colsaerts e/w @ 40/1 - 7 places

Italian Open 2020 - Chervò Golf Club, San Vigilio di Pozzolengo, Brescia , Italy

 A new course hosts the Italian Open this week, stepping in as so many tournaments have had to do this year as a replacement to ensure schedule continuity. We don't have a Rolex Series status associated with the event this week but its not too bad a field teeing it up on the backdrop of Lake Garda.

From photos shared around if the course, it looks to be a birdie fest on the cards this week which will suit the longer hitters and those with a hot putter. 

I'm backing just one player this week, Marcus Armitage who has been in decent form of late posting 2 7th place finishes at last week's Scottish Championship & the UK Championship sandwiched with a 50th in Portugal & T23rd at the Irish Open. His lack off accuracy may not be an issue this week, time will tell but if he's striking it decent enough and makes his share on the greens he can outplay his odds of 60/1 - 6 places here. At 85.00 on the exchange he's worth a dabble for the much needed Win to ignite his career and bring some stability into his life that he's been working very hard to achieve.

Selection

1 pt WIN M. Armitage @ 85.00

1 pt  E/W M. Armitage @ 60/1 - 6 places

ZOZO Championship

 The ZOZO Championship will be hosted by Sherwood GC at the foot of the Santa Monica hills in California this week, deputizing for Narashina GC, Tokyo due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Hopefully this co-sanctioned Japan/PGA Tour event will return to Japan next year and for the next 4 years. With that in mind, we can discount "ZOZO form" and instead to look at recent events played at Sherwood CC, which the defending champion, Tiger Woods has particular success on winning numerous times at his invitational Hero Challenge event. 

We have a limited field this week too so we can fully expect top of the market to prevail. Course correlations seem evident with Muirfield (The Memorial) and RBC Heritage and that immediately points me to Patrick Cantlay @40.00 on the exchange (28/1 e/w general). Cantlay has decent form at both tracks (he won The Memorial last year following a 4th place finish the year pervious and finished 3rd & 7th on his last starts at The Heritage). Two TOP-10s his his last 9 starts is OK, but he should be happier here  Sherwood CC as too being back in his native state.

He's my only bet this week on the PGA Tour

Selection

1 pt win P. Cantlay @ 40.00

2 pts e/w P. Cantlay @ 28/1 - 7 places

CJ Cup 2020 - Shadow Creek, Nevada

 No time for a preview this week. No bets for me in Scotland ,just the CJ Cup of interest

Selections

2 pts WIN C. Morikawa @ 28.00

1 pt e/w B. Watson @ 60/1 - 7 places

0.5 e/w A. Long @ 150/1 - 7 places

Shriners Hospital for Children Open - TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas

 Collin Morikawa has a home game this week and I cant get my head around his price of 20/1 - 8 places for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open to be hosted yet again at TPC Summerlin, where a strong tee to green game is required as well as the ability to post a good few birdies. The new PGA Champion is a Las Vegas residence and we should note that local boys do tend to go well here.

Winner of the Workday Open before capturing his first major title at TPC Harding, Morikawa has also posted a T-20th at the BMW Championship and a 6th at The Tour Championship before starting the US Open in nightmare fashion last time out. Refreshed and sleeping in his own bed, should be to his advantage this week and he's a must bet for me here.

Joaquin Niemann has been to good to me of late and I also couldn't believe the 70s on offer for the Chilean here where that tee2green game should see him contend. TOP-30s  at the US Open (23rd) & The BMW Championship (28th) followed up his strong performance at Olympia Fields when finishing 3rd behind DJ & Rahm. Having risen to the TOP-50 in the world this year, better things are surely ahead for the 21 year old and he can go better than his 10th place finish at Summerlin two years ago @ 50/1 - 8 places

Selections

1.50 pts e/w C. Morikawa @ 18/1 - 8 places (* price dropped since draft preview above but still think price is fair)

1 pt e/w J. Niemann @ 50/1 - 8 places

BMW Championship 2020 - Wentworth GC, London

 The European flagship event is the BMW Championships, being held this week at Wentworth Golf Club near London. As per the "normal 2020", the event is staged much later in the year than usual, but provides us with the European's best lineup since February. Race to Dubai "leader", Patrick Reed makes his way over to compete having done so last year when finishing 4th on debut. He heads the market of Tommy Fleetwood, who looks to improve on his 3rd-2nd finishes in his past two European events, @ 11/1

Wentworth is not everyone's cup of tea, just ask Padraig Harrington, but it has shown over the years that experience here is key to a good week. That Reed should finish 4th last year at first attempt sayss something about his calibre and he can't be ignored, despite finishing 5 shots behind fellow Masters winner, Danny Willett. This is a ball strikers course and time again we've seen course specialists do well here and Simon Khan stamps that more than anyone else when quite a substantial percentage of his careers earnings have been from this event alone. I put up Shane Lowry  for the US Open last month but he hated every minute of it and did well to hang in there and improve his position over the weekend before heading back to Ireland for a well deserved break. He should be fully rested now and raring to go on one of his , if not his favourite course this week. The Irishman should have won in 2014 only to see Rory McIlroy get over his split from Caroline Wozniacki that week by pipping him on Sunday. Shano's form here though over the years is fantastic! (11-15-6-mc-6-2-12-68-4-65 ) and I am expecting a bold showing this week to finally cap it off with a win.

I haven't backed Justin Rose in quite a while, perhaps thinking Rose was content with life since he bagged his Olympic gold medal and went chasing corporate dollars, but having ditched the honma clubs six months ago, he looks like he's piquing for another win. He too has decent form here ; 8-12-38-25-50-2-mc-10-mc-2 and I also like the stat highlighted by Justin Ray following Sergio Garcia's win last week below and think Rose may be motivated to keep his winning streak going and he is not without a big chance here this week @ 18/1 or 24.00 on the exchange outright.

"Garcia has now won at least one official event worldwide every year since 2011. Only two other players have an active streak of 10 years or more with a victory: Yuta Ikeda (2009-2019, 11 straight) and Justin Rose (2010-19, 10 straight). Neither Ikeda nor Rose have won yet in 2020."

Rose has been quiet throughout 2020, and so has many in fairness but he hasn't been exactly non-competitive either. 9th at Harding Park can be seen as a positive as too can his T-25 at The Northern Trust, 3rd @ Charles Schwab and T-14th at RBC Heritage. I think JR will be motivated hugely here to keep that yearly win streak going

Finally, Marc Warren continues to show form and he's had decent results at Wentworth over the years too with 7 TOP-30s in his last 11 visits including being runner-up in 2013 to Matteo Mannasero having lost in a playoff along with aforementioned Simon Khan. A win last February in Qatar was followed up last week with a 4th place in Scotland so he can be confident his game is in order for a go here and @ 150/1 - 8 places he's well well worth a punt as to is the 11/2 (6.50) in the TOP-20 market.

Selections:

1.50 pt e/w Shane Lowry @ 25/1 - 7 places

1.50 pts e/w J. Rose @ 18/1 - 8 places

0.25 pts e/w M. Warren @ 150/1 - 8 places

2.5 pts TOP-20 M. Warren @ 11/2

Scottish Open , Renaissance Club & Sandersons Farm, Jackson CC

 A very frustrating week last week on all sides, counts and whatever else was thrown at a golf punter. Firstly The Corales Puntacana Championship staged in the Dominican Republic was a disaster to trust the scoreboard, a trait that occurs all too often when the tour and other tours head to "lesser golfing nations" where they rely on volunteers as always to help the day to day course management of the spectators and the hole by hole scoring. Unfortunately for this blog, we were the victims of day-1 scoring being recorded inaccurately. In Ballymena, the blogs punt on Calum Hill had a bit of a run only for some further frustration to show. The Scotsman had only one bad hole on Thursday and one bad hole on Friday but both proved costly with an 8 on the 10th hole in the opening round and a 7 on his closing hole Friday which was obviously played in the dark to avoid early tee time on Saturday. It proved costly to the player and added to my frustration for the week when a par would have left him within 3 of the lead. He is forgiven though and I'm willing to chance him this week at The Renaissance Course where he finished 26th last year. Galgorm Castle played surprisingly tougher than expected last week, due mainly to long wet rough but I don't expect the course itself to play as tough this week although the links-type course will be exposed to some autumnal weather including wind! Hill can be backed @ 90/1 - 8 places

I'll complete my lineup in Scotland with Renato Paratore @ 70/1 - 8 places and Erik Van Rooyen @ 25/1 - 8 places

Over on the PGA Tour, I have sided with Doc Redman @28/1 - 8places, Denny McCarthy @ 66/1 - 8 places , as well as Mark Hubbard @ 100/1 - 8 places and a minimal amount on Patton Kizzire@ 150/1 - 8 places

Selections

Scottish Open 

0.75 pts e/w Calum Hill @ 90/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w Renato Paratore @ 70/1 - 8 places

1.5 pts e/w Erik Van Rooyen @ 25/1 - 8 places

Sandersons Farm

1.5 pts e/w Doc Redman @28/1 - 8places, 

0.75 pts e/w Denny McCarthy @ 66/1 - 8 places 

0.50 pts e/w Mark Hubbard @ 100/1 - 8 places 

0.25 pts e/w Patton Kizzire @ 150/1 - 8 places

Irish Open 2020 - Galgorm Castle GC, Ballymena, Northern Ireland & Corales Puntacana (PGA)

 Webb Simpson nearly produce place money last week in an enjoyable US Open at Winged Foot. Bryson de Chambeau played superb golf over the week but in particular the front-9 on Sunday to the dismay of many. His style is not my cup of tea, I don't think the power game that he has produced his sustainable for him but it'll be fascinating to see how he goes at Augusta in a few weeks time.

Onto the Irish Open this week which is now being played at Galgorm Castle Gold & Spa Resort in Ballymenna, Northern Ireland who have stepped in at last minute to host the event as Irish Republic restrictions are in place to tackle the spread of COVID-19, meaning Mt Juliet cannot fulfil their hosting duties. With Galgorm deputising, it's good to know an agreement has been reached for the Co. Kilkenny club to host next year, please God if all goes well in curtailing the disease that has impacted all our lives. Its probably good news for MT Juliet touring pro representative, Gavin Moynihan as he is woefully out of form and indeed so much so, that even a return to Irish soil this week probably won't be enough to re-ignite his poor season. Still, of the Irish contingent to tee it up this week, hope sides with the Open Champion, Shane Lowry who leads the market. Of the others, Cormac Sharvin and Jonathan Caldwell should arrive in confidence following recent good form and would be good TOP10/20 bets this week. As the majority of this field are made up of Challenge Tour players in essence, it could be a week that Padraig Harrington pulls a surprise....he's been chomping at the bit to get going again and with the Ryder Cup captain putting his plans on hold for another 12 months at least, we can be assured he's up for the challenge ahead this week. I think he's worth chancing here this week @ 80/1 with 8nplaces on offer. He's been out with the Irish lads playing the K Club of late and working to get ready - he needs no further build up other than he's motivated to win his "5th Major" ...again !

As per the last couple of months, I'm sticking with players that have made my staking plans and will go again with Wil Besseling, who finished 9th on this course at the Northern Ireland Open on the Challenge Tour in 2018. He's in form and if we are to see a birdie fest here this week, his long game will suit; just needs to bring a hot putter!. Calum Hill is a previous winner here (2018) and finished TOP-10 last year also....he has strong course form and recent form suggest this is a week to play him......His price is fair @ 40/1 - 8 places

Over on the PGA Tour, Chris Kirk I think is good value @ 60/1 8 places (Boylesports) or 66/1 7 places (general). A former OWGR TOP-20 ranked player, Kirk is making a comeback following some serious personal issues and he's already achieved a win this year seeing off this week's market leader, Will Zalatoris when winning on the Korn Ferry Tour in June. He finished 21st at the recent Rocket Mortgage Classic so form is holding. 

Charles Howell III, Mr Consistency, might go well at 28/1- 8 places so hes chanced also based on that consistency as shown when finishing 30th at Winged Foot last week after a 3rd place finish at the 3M Open back in July

Selections

0.75 pts e/w P. Harrington @ 80/1 - 8 places

1.50 pts e/w W. Besseling @ 35/1 - 8 places

1.00 pts e/w C. Hill @ 40/1 - 8 places

0.75 pts e/w C. Kirk @ 60/1 - 8 places

1.00 pts e/w C. Howell III @ 28/1 - 8 places

US Open 2020 - Winged Foot, NY

 The second of the Major of the year is upon us this week as we head back to Winged Foot GC for the first time since 2006, where Australian Geoff Ogilvy prevailed by becoming the first player ever and still to this day, win a Major without breaking par in any round. His winning score of 285 (+5) was the highest winning score in a Major and we can expect high scoring this time too! Since 1970, Winged Foot has yielded the highest scoring average of 74.45 and we play it this time round in the 3rd week in September when climate conditions shouldn't be as severe as when normally played for in June. That said the weather forecast is very good for the week ahead and we should see slick greens in play.It's the greens that will add to a players score this week even if he avoiding the penal rough.

I enjoy these type of Majors, and having really enjoyed Olympia Fields in Illinois last month where Jon Rahm saw off Dustin Johnson to win the BMW Championship, I fully expect to see the players who have been in form the past 6 weeks or so to be on the leaderboard again this week. Whilst US Open winners of late have been top drawer though, we have seen many triple figure priced players hitting the podium. I backed Shane Lowry during the Northern Trust, before he duly missed the cut and he did little to restore my confidence last week when missing the cut at The Safeway Open, but he's backed and he still remains one to consider as an outsider for the week. The Open Champion has some US Open form, notably pushing Dustin Johnson in 2016 at Oakmont having posted a TOP-10 the previous year at Chambers Bay.  He was 28th last year at Pebble Beach. Lowry likes the big events, the big story. He won his National Open as an amateur in 2009, has won a Major and a WGC (Bridgestone 2015) and he's clearly pushing to make Padraig Harrington's Ryder Cup Team for next year. Aside from the Irish Open win in 2009, the Portugal Masters is only other win on his résumé, but his short game has got him to these titles and he'll need it here this week too...if he gets the big stick to behave this week, he has a fair shout. 100/1 - 7 places available

Martin Kaymer is still searching for his first win anywhere since his romp to the US Open at Pinehurst in 2014 and he really should have won on both his last two starts.Whether its the scar tissue from Abu Dhabi 2015 when losing a 10-shot lead that still haunts him or not, the affable German is knocking on the door a long time now for one more win....and he is not without a chance this week if the head is good. It always is though as his demeanour on course is exactly what top players need and have. He has been superb tee to green this season as are his returns on the Europeantour this season (8-16-13-10-mc-mc -3-2) He won't be fazed by the occasion, arrives in very good form and is a big-time player. Whilst his chipping is a concern, a solid start on Thursday can focus the job at hand and it is imperative he does start well. I wanted to hold off with the write-up until the tee times were announced but will hope he has a morning start and take the 110/1 - 8 places on offer.

I do however think Webb Simpson can win his second US Open this week. From his 9 US Opens to date, he has only missed one cut, winning in 2012 and posting a further 3 TOP-20s. Twice winner on tour this year ;Phoenix Open and RBC Heritage, Simpson since the last win has posted 3 TOP10s and 2 TOP-20s from his 7 outings; he's in form! If its a steady player, a patient player that we want on our staking plan this week with a little bit of value @ 25/1 - 28/1, he's one for the shortlist. At 22/1 with 10 & 11 places on offer , punters will bring a lot of action.

I considered Patrick Reed, Tyrell Hatton, Adam Scott and Joaquin Niemann as well as Finau & Rahm. I so wanted to get on board with JT this week but his game is not where he'd like it to be, but I wouldn't completely write him off. His results have been decent with a win thrown in for good measure but he'll need his A-game this week. Rory has the long game and skills to contend and he was tempting @ 18/1, but as alluded last time out- he hasn't posted a TOP-10 since the golf restart....perhaps his mind was quite rightly elsewhere. He has one eye on Augusta, so we'll see him sharpen up over the next month and it could easily happen here. 

There's no doubting that Jon Rahm and Dustin Johnson are the two form players coming into the week but I'm not quite convinced that "Rahmbo" is only one point bigger than DJ in the betting. Yes Rahm is starting to show a winning consistency and a penchant for the difficult tracks, but he looks for his first Major this week where his patience will be tested again and again.  DJ for me @ 10.00 looks value in respect to his competitors prices....I had priced him at 15/2, with Rahm @ 10/1. DJ has only the one Major in his locker, (so too has many other great players over the years...it's not easy winning these, despite what Brooks thinks) but of all the Major's, it's the US Open that seems to be DJ's best Major to compete in. He's won one from his 12 attempts to date and posted further 3 TOP-5s! His all round game is on fire at present and for me ...is the man to beat this week. I don't expect an upset this week....the market leaders are all in decent form and one of them should see victory come Sunday evening.

Selections:

2.5 pts WIN D. Johnson @ 10.00

1.5 pts e/w W. Simpson @ 25/1 - 8 places

0.75 pts e/w M.Kaymer @ 110/1 - 8 places

0.75 pts e/w S.Lowry @ 100/1 - 8 places

Portugal Masters- Ana Inspiration - Safeway Open 2020

 It was another very close thing last week, when Connor Syme took the first round lead at Valderrama and stayed in contention the weekend to eventually double bogey the 72nd hole and fall one shot short of a place payout. It meant a loss of course for the week, but taking the positives, its good to have contenders the past few weeks, meaning I must be looking in the right places. It was gut wrenching also to see Martin Kaymer come up short again as he seeks to stop the winless run. He will win soon.

As mentioned in previous posts, recent selections have been kept onside in the staking plans with one or two having received the chop in between. One of those was Wil Besseling but having notched a TOP-5 last week he has to return to the staking plan this week. The Dutchman is 8/11 events this season with 4 TOP-20s of which 3 are TOP-5s! He tops the SG:OTT rankings presently, and sits in the top-20 for accuracy too gaining almost 6 shots on the field. He leads the GIR stats too, gaining 9 shots, and if he has the putter anyway warm this week he could be in for a good one. 50/1 7-places

 Marcus Armitage duly performed the week after I dropped him from the staking plan last month but I'm keen to chance him here again. He's widely available @ 80/1 7-places. The Englishman had a TOP-20 on his last visit to Dom Pedro GC three years ago and arrives on the back of a mc in Andalucia but a TOP-10 at The Belfry and a brace of TOP-20s at The English Championships and Hero Open.

Lastly, I will add Ashun Wu & Chris Paisley (who I was on last month also) to the plan. I've opted for Wu over American, Johannes Veerman who should find Dom Pedro up his alley this week and can improve on his eye-catching TOP-10 at Valderrama. However at 55/1 I will pass and instead get with the Chinese player @ 80/1 7 places. Wu was 7th here three years ago, 44th the following year. He played "OK" last week and is sure to find a visit here more to his liking than last week. The price is too big to ignore for someone. He posted two TOP-15s before lockdown in Mauritius & Riyadh as well as a TOP-10 in Dubai so with a tourney under his belt,he could be ready to go!Chris Paisley has Dom Pedro form-line of 5-12-5 for his last 3 visits...he has strong course form and his price is more than fair @ 45/1 6 places.

Ana Inspiration

Over at Mission Hills GC, the 2nd Ladies Major takes place this week without the defending champion Jin Young Ko due to COVID-19 travel implications. I have to chance Kydia Ko here this week though at a course the kiwi has won on before and who is showing she is almost back to her very best when , lets face it, she should have won the Marathon Classic last month , finishing 2nd. She posted back to back TOP-15s in her next two stats in Scotland, before closing with a nice 66 LTO in Arkansas. At 25/1 5-places she may give us a run for our money here

Safeway Open

The new PGA Tour season gets underway this week for 2021. The PGA have dubbed the new season as "Super Season" with 50 events in the schedule. It will be strange to see the 2020 US Open and Masters being staged before the year is out though.

Two selections here for me; Mark Hubbard (again sticking with a player we have been on in recent weeks) and Bud Cauley. Hubbard racked up 7 TOP-20s last season with a TOP-20 posted recently at the Wyndham Championship. Both 50/1 7 places

Selections

1 pt e/w W. Besseling @ 50/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

0.75 pts e/w M. Armitage @ 80/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

1 pt e/w C. Paisley @ 45/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

0.75 pts e/w A. Wu @ 80/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

1.25 pts e/w L. Ko @ 25/1 - (1/4 - 5 places)

0.75 pts e/w M. Hubbard @ 50/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

0.75 pts e/w B. Cauley @ 50/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

Andalucia Masters 2020 - Valderrama GC

 We went close last week....very close with both Benjamin Hébert & Joaquin Niemann holding the lead at one stage on "back-9 Sunday". Whilst the Frenchmen in all honesty never looked like taking the title, he did play quite consistently over the four days. Perhaps a bit more aggressive golf might have got him over the line. Niemann on the other hand gave me a real sweat Sunday night but I can't complain, the drama that unfolded between Rahm & DJ on a fantastic Olympia Fields was really enjoyable. Let's hope we don't have to wait another 17 years for PGA action again there...it was a real Major feel last week! I did have an in-play bet on Bubba after RD-3 @ 50.00 and although it didn't happen quick enough for him on Sunday, there was a lot of positives to take from his form both here and the previous couple of tournaments so I've had added him to my Masters staking plan @ 55.00. With Augusta likely to play longer in early November than it does in April, the two time Masters Champion might just have an edge of his competitors in 2 months time.

I have no interest in the Tour Championship this week at East Lake. The FedEX Cup does not excite me one bit, never has and never will. The handicap system for the Tour Championship might seem like it could create such excitement but lets face it, they're all there for payday! DJ for me to take the FedEX Cup.

Valderrama hosts the Andalucia Masters this week unfortunately without Sergio Garcia, Jon Rahm and Rafael Cabrera-Bello due to COVID-19 travel restrictions etc. As the "UK Swing" and the "European Tour bubble" moves on to The Iberian Pensinsula for this and the next two weeks, it will be interesting to see if the form holds as it seemed to do in the "UK Swing". Valderrama though, is one of the courses that needs to be figured out, or in simple terms needs a player to have past experience on to excel here or win on. The market is headed by last week's champion, Rasmus Hogaard, Martin Kaymer and recent English Championship winner, Andy Sullivan with Belgian, Thomas Detry , who has had two runner-up finishes in his last 3 starts. Aside from the betting angle, I really do hope Martin Kaymer can notch up a win soon....form is temporary, class is permanent. Maybe this week!

I have two selections that I think could go very well this week. Both Scotsman! Calum Hill and Conor Syme are in great form.....the latter is 10/12 events this season posting 7no. TOP-20s! (5*TOP-10/ 2*TOP-5). He currently ranks 5th in GIR stats on tour, a great stat to bring to Valderrama not to mention 28th in the scrambling stats, a trait needed here. 40/1 is OK 

Calum Hill looks to continue his recent form here following back to back TOP-10s the past two weeks. Similar to Syme, hes 8/12 this season with 4 TOP-20s. Whilst Conor is strong off the tee in terms of accuracy, if Hill can bring his recent form into Thursday's opening round he may just improve further and make the 66/1 - 7 places silly come Sunday evening.

Jason Scrivener and Paul Waring came close to inclusion and I'll be keeping an eye on their scoring Thursday for a potential in-play bet 

Selections

1.5 pts e/w C. Syme @ 40/1 - 7 places

1.5 pts e/w C. Hill @ 66/1 - 7 places

BMW Championship & UK Championship 2020

 Very late this week to get my selections up on the blog, but I'm quite keen on a couple in Illinois and have had a dabble at The Belfry also. Blog is brief, apologies.

BMW Championship

Olympia Fields is bound to play tough this week. The course was used back in 2003 for the US Open and for the 2015 US Amateur which Bryson De Chambeau won. Jon Rahm also contended that year before being eliminated in the knockout rounds. (Ireland's Paul Dunne was beaten by De Chambeau in the quarter finals). A par-70 with just two Par-5s, the scoring should be much harder than what DJ produced last week. Its the 2nd of the 3 FedEX Cup play-off events with the TOP-30 moving on to East Lake next week.

I'm backing Justin Thomas here - yes he's gone off the boil in his last two starts but the course should suit his game. At 14/1 I think he gives a little bit of value; I had him @ 11/12's. I did also think Rory could bounce back here but the simple fact of not having one single TOP-10 in his 7 starts since the season restart does not read well and he's dismissed on form.

Joaquin Niemann is on the staking plan. He's had a great season and I think he'll like Olympia Fields where is ball striking should see him in contention. He's 13/21 starts this season - won the opening Greenbrier and has posted a further 3 TOP20s since. Form has dropped of late but the price allows for this. He can bounce back this week at a nice price @125/1 - 7 places.

Kevin Na I'm not sure I have ever backed but I like his outside chances here. He too won last Autumn and has posted a further 7 TOP-20s from his 18 other starts, but its his results at tournaments like The Amex (17th) , AT&T (14th) , WGC Mexico (9th) , Travelers (5th) , Memorial (9th) that offers hope that he can excel at a tough event @ 100/1 - 7 places.

Mark Hubbard has been chances a few times of late - he wants to get to East Lake and a TOP-20 here might do it for him. He's 9/2 to do so in this 70 man field

Wales Open - Celtic Manor, Newport,Wales

 We stay at the Celtic Manor for the rejuvenated Wales Open, not held since 2014 on the European Tour.

I kept the faith the past few tournaments with the same stable although I was too quick to drop Wil Besseling from the staking plan despite alluding to Celtic Manor requiring strong GIR stats which the Dutchman excels in. He duly opened up last week with a 67,  which would have given an opportunity to balance the book somewhat by laying something off during the end of that round.With golf betting in general, I find with the downswings involved, it can become frustrating to see someone you tip up and back one week, drop the next and he then goes in...you'll see this often, but it pays to keep the faith, as I call it, for a time whilst he's showing form as there was a reason to zoning in on that player in the first place.. Of course, we all have that golfer we fall over the cliff with, not to mention racehorse etc...its the thing about sports betting, we are drawn to it initially through our passion of the sport, yet once we get into long term betting, we have to try and extinguish the emotional aspect of it. With golf betting, the winners don't come too often, unless you are Ben Coley in 2020, so it should be easier to control the emotional aspect of it as opposed to daily horse racing. There may be an upcoming tournament where the course does not suit and if that's the case, he can than be dropped. I have consoled myself in that Min Woo Lee did pick up form and had a decent enough opening round too last week. However he faded the weekend. Moreover, Wil Besseling put in a TOP-20 performance, whilst Alexander Bjork all but for a slow start on the Thursday did play decent enough to finish T-27th. The "stable" are close, haven't been close enough for more returns but as we stick to the same course this week, I feel it's worth sticking to Bjork based on the same logic as last week's. Bjork is available Wednesday morning @ 40/1 with 6 places. Lucas Bjeregaard is playing awful at present; he was taken at a price last week, is bigger this week but its a no for me until he can show some form again.

The UK Swing did though have quite a number of similar fields, and it continues to do so with certain players showing some sort of consistent returns. As with all tournaments, there is an abundance of value in the field, the problem though is you cant get them all in the staking plan and the level of competitiveness in world golf has certainly increased the past  5 years or so, that its becoming much harder to pick the price big winner as they are becoming less of occurrence. I tried to adapt 3 years ago and put more effort in to T-10/20 markets but I concluded having had a run of bad results that the staking plan would need review if pursuing any further. At the end of the day, sports punters do need some emotion and that means some winners and no better feeling than landing a few nice double digit or even triple figure winners such is the case sometimes in golf betting. The win outright bet is here to stay.....its whether to change the pre-tournament approach to putting more emphasis on in-play betting that I need to look at and just take win only before the off and then bet accordingly in play. This game is getting harder for sure. All that said, I'll conclude my staking plan with Nicolas Colsaerts @ 70/1 - 6 places. He finished a lowly T-63rd last week but having had the run out I expect him to improve and perhaps challenge on Sunday.

Over at the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the Northern Trust, I do like the look of DJ's price as well as Rory's but have opted for the former. I do think Tony Finau has some unfinished business this season and was keen to have some interest but the 33s are too short for me. As with the PGA Championship, I am going to chance Mark Hubbard @ 200/1 - 1/5 10 places as well as Adam Hadwin @ 130/1 - 10 places

Selections (Wales Open & Northern Trust)

1.50 pts e/w A. Bjork @ 40/1 - 1/5 6 places

1.00 pts e/w N. Colsaerts @ 70/1 1/5 6 places

2.00 pts e/w D. Johnson @ 20/1 - 1/5 8 places

0.25 pts e/w M. Hubbard @ 199/1 - 1/5 10 places

0.25 pts e/w A.Hadwin @ 129/1 - 1/5 10 places

Celtic Classic - Celtic Manor, Newport, Wales

 The "UK Swing" moves to Wales this week, where a new tourney will be held at Celtic Manor, host venue of the 2010 Ryder Cup. We'll stay here for the following week too for the Welsh Open.

The course should be a challenge, and those most likely to fare well will be those with strong GIR and scrambling stats. Winners and those on the leaderboards over recent years have shown a trend of performing well at Golf Nacional also which can often help narrow the field. This is promising as I want to stick with Alexander Bjork yet again this week and can feel extra confident knowing he has form in Paris to boot. 3rd there in 2017 and 8th in 2018. We have no tournament form from Celtic Manor since 2014 but we do know its toughened up over the years and there is this strong course correlation to Le Golf Nacional. Good Ball strikers with scrambling nuance will do well here. Alexander Bjork is finding form having finished 3rd at The Hero Open and I can't omit him from the staking plan this week @ 40/1

Marcus Armitage is added for the week. I've never really looked at Marcus before but can't help notice his form this season, especially finishing 14th and 15th the past 2 weeks. He's 7/9 this season, finished 3rd behind Louis Oosthuizen & Branden Grace at Randpark,Johannesburg and seems to be settling down after some challenging years on the personal front. He has set his goals differently too this year and one of them is to win a tourney. Lets hope he's up for it this week @ 80/1 .

Finally, Min Woo Lee is kept in the staking plan or should. I wasn't on last week in the English Championship where he finished 6th having missed the cut the previous two weeks. He is however 4/9 this season which includes a W at the Vic Open, and 3 TOP-20s. He's fair enough price @ 50/1

Selections

2 pts e/w A. Bjork @ 40/1 (1/5 - 6 places)

1 pt e/w M.Armitage @ 80/1 (1/5 - 7 places)

1 pt e/w Min Woo Lee @ 50/1 (1/5 - 6 places)

* adding Lucas Bjeregaard to staking plan @ 125/1 e/w (7 places) - 0.50 pt e/w

Lucas is overpriced - been plying his trade on the PGA Tour earlier this year - hes missed 8 cuts there from 8 starts, returns to European action this week and hopefully it gives him renewed enthusiasm.

PGA Championship 2020 - TPC Harding GC, San Francisco

On to my last week of family holidays and although things are a bit different in 2020 than normal, we just couldn't go without a Major whilst on my holiday. Normally away for The Open in recent years, the PGA Championship tees up at Harding GC (hole by hole preview here), San Francisco on Thursday as the first Major of 2020.Brooks Koepka attempts to become the first player since Peter Thompson to win the same Major three years in a row. Brooks has found some form at the right time too. Under the radar a little, is the attempt this week of Jordan Spieth to complete the Grand Slam having won the Masters, Open & US Open already.

Hoping to get proper previews going once I'm back, but this week's PGA Championship needs to be bet on with many bookmakers offering 10 & 11 places as the Championship takes centre stage. For me it's hard to look beyond Justin Thomas, who won his 13th PGA Tour title on Sunday. He came out of lockdown looking a little rusty but produced some decent results before grabbing a win. He should take the form into San Fran this week. I am putting more emphasis on recent form players for this week and based on that the defending champion is most likely to give Thomas a challenge. So too is Jon Rahm and of the two, its JT I want to be with @ 12.00

Recent form coming in to the PGA Championship over recent years is evident as per below where the winner had a decent outing in their lead-up tournament:

2019 Brooks Koepka - 4th
2018 Brooks Koepka - 5th
2017 Justin Thomas - 28th
2016 Jimmy Walker - 11th
2015 Jason Day - 12th
2014 Rory McIlroy -1st
2013 Jason Dufner - 4th
2012 Rory McIlroy - 5th
2011 Keegan Bradley - 15th
2010 Martin Kaymer - 22nd
2009 Y.E. Yang - 18th
2008 Padraig Harrington - 20th
2007 Tiger Woods - 1st
2006 Tiger Woods - 1st

Having already backed Shane Lowry @ 125/1 to win the November Masters, I'm quite excited to back him here @ 95.00 on the exchange and a little more @ 70/1 with 8 places. I've also backed Matty Fitzpatrick @ 65.00 before the final round yesterday, hoping he'd slow down and it's no surprise to see him come in further in the betting, but I wouldn't be jumping in @ 45/1 as he is now as I post. 50s maybe.  Bringing form into this week is essential and Matty is quite capable of winning this week. Both Shano & Matty were T6th last week.

Kevin Kisner @ 151 - 10 places is a must; thats value all day long. (T-25th last week)

With 10 places on offer, I think we could see an effort from Mark Hubbard,(72nd at Memorial but 12th @ Rocket Mortgage) Lanto Griffin(58th at Barracuda) & Wyndham Clark (35th at Barracuda) so they are added @ 400/1,300/1& 400/1


Selections:

4.75 pts WIN J. Thomas @ 12.00
0.75 pts WIN S. Lowry @ 95.00
0.50 pts e/w S.Lowry @ 70/1
0.50 pts WIN M. Fitzpatrick @ 65.00
0.25 pts E/W K. Kisner @ 150/1
0.25 pts E/W L.Griffin @ 300/1
0.25 pts E/W M. Hubbard @ 400/1
0.25 pts E/W W.Clark @ 400/1

Hero Open 2020 - Forest of Arden GC, UK

No time at all for write up as away with family and despite last week's poor effort,I'm looking at the same attack for this week.

1.50 pts e/w R. Fisher @ 40/1 (7 places)
0.75 pts e/w A. Bjork @ 66/1 (7 places)
0.50 pts e/w Minwoo Lee @80/1 (6 places)
0.50 pts e/w W.Besseling @125/1 (7 places)

British Masters 2020 - Close House GC, Newcastle UK

I'm away the next two weeks with the family for a holiday in Ireland so it's a very brief post to publish my picks for this week's British Masters hosted by Lee Westwood at Close House GC in Newcastle. Ireland's Paul Dunne won the event on this course in 2017,whilst his Walker Cup teammate,Gavin Moynihan joins him at the eleventh hour as first alternate, who also won a Europro event on the course. Former Challenge Tour graduates Eddie Pepperell and Marcus Kinhult have won the event the past two years.

It's a poor field really, but we can hardly complain given the ongoing pandemic and it's fantastic to see golf being played close to home once again. The host heads the market St dingle figures but I have 4 to take him on !



1.5 pts e/w R. Fisher ( yes I know) @ 30/1 ( 7 places)

0.5 pt WIN A. Bjork @ 70.00 / 1pt TOP-10 @ 6.40

0.5 pt WIN Min Woo Lee @ 65.00 / 1 pt TOP-10 @ 6.80

0.5 pt WIN Will Besseling @ 150.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-20 @ 5.10

Travelers Championship 2020 - TPC River Highlands,Connecticut

The OGWR top-7 will tee it up at TPC River Highlands on Thursday, meaning the tournament will have it's strongest OWGR ranking points on offer in history. Justin Ray of the 15th Club has highlighted that the Championship has never even had the top-2 in appearance together before. As with the last two weeks, we the TV viewers,will be treated to the world's best being on show following COVID-19 lockdown, and with the course essentially a birdie haven for the game's elite, those that have warmed up the past two weeks at The Colonial & The Heritage are bound to be honing in on their A-games for the week ahead and ideally better suited for a punt than those that tee it up rusty. Pity, because I was keen on Patrick Cantlay here but given he's too fresh against the leading players, he's reluctantly left out of my staking plan before the off.

Justin Thomas hasn't played well the past two weeks. He's finished 10th in Texas before finishing with a flourish at the weekend at Hilton Head to grab 8th,where his driver has misbehaved for both weeks not to mention some poor approach shots. I like the fact he's had the game time and arrives here where he would expect to perform better then the last fortnight. He doesn't have great course form though, although he finished 3rd in 2016 behind winner,Russell Knox and Jerry Kelly with a closing 62 proving he can play the course and score on it. Thomas was a little upset at the Florida stance on social distancing last week and he remarked how he kept his circle tight and had a chef traveling with his entourage to ensure it was a business trip with a professional approach for the job at hand, and I think he can build on the two results despite knowing he was far from his best by challenging for title number 13 on the PGA Tour. At 14.00 hes an outright bet for me this week.

Sergio Garcia is not a player I back often nor want to watch or cheer on often either, but I have started to warm to him a bit more since he married and settled down a bit, despite his tantrums in 2019. Recently turned 40, I'm hoping in pretty much the same vein as I mentioned Adam Scott for the Genesis, that he can emulate both Scott & G-Mac in  recent times by making the milestone a motivator to challenge and win soon again. His exploits at Hilton Head suggest his game is in fine nick and at a course where strong tee-to-green game is vital, the Spaniard is looking way overpriced for me this week @ 60.00 WIN, 6.00 TOP-10 and 3.30 TOP-20.

Selections:

2.50 pts WIN J.Thomas @ 14.00

0.75 pts WIN S. Garcia @ 60.00

5.00 pts TOP-20 S.Garcia @ 3.30

Players Championship 2020

No time for a preview this week but I am backing Justin Thomas for The Players.

2.0 pts WIN @ 20.00
4.0 PTS TOP-10 @ 3.35

Qatar Masters and Arnold Palmer Invitational 2020

Whilst the Florida Swing moves into its second week on the PGA Tour, the Desert Swing reaches its climax in Qatar this week, where we are faced with a new course in the shape of Education City GC.

In Qatar we have essentially a similar lineup to that of last week's Oman Open and based on that I have taken the same approach and gone in again on Ross Fisher & Paul Waring and added a third interest in Benjamin Hebert.

Fisher & Waring played well enough last week, the former falling out of contention over his final 4 holes on the Friday before climbing the leaderboard again on the Sunday. He's backed at 46.00 in the outright market to keep the momentum going here and I especially like the PM/AM draw he has this week. Waring is playing solid enough, and if he starts well on Thursday he could be a contender, and at 40.00 for the win, he is kept on the staking plan for the week. Frenchman, Benjamin Hebert is one I'm keen to get onside this week, particularly @ 60.00. He had an alright week in Oman despite travelling over from Mexico the weekend before, and he should be freshened up here to continue his solid form in the region and maintain strong par-5 scoring which looks to be key this week.

Qatar Masters Selections:

1.00 pt WIN R. Fisher @ 46.00   - 2.50 pts TOP-20 @ 3.00
1.00 pt WIN P. Waring @ 40.00  - 2.50 pts TOP-20 @ 3.00
1.00 pt WIN B.Hebert @ 60.00   - 2.50 pts TOP-20 @ 3.60


Bay Hill GC will host the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week without the presence of Tiger Woods. The field however is very strong with Rory McIlroy heading the market at a very short price. Well for me anyway. I've selected three players here who I think can go very well and the majority of my interest will lie in the T10/T20 markets.

Ball striking is required here and I'm looking at players who have shown form and who could make the top10/top20 here. They are Kevin Na, Ben An, Max Homa & Joaquin Niemann (despite coming in off two MCs). Kevin Kisner is another I may get involved in during in-play.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Selections

1.00 pts WIN B. An @ 50.00               - 1.50 pts TOP-10 @ 5.20
0.50 pts WIN K. Na @ 100.00             - 1.00 pts TOP-10 @ 9.60   - 1.50 pts TOP-20 @ 5.00
0.25 pts WIN M. Homa @ 100.00       - 1.00 pts TOP-10 @ 12.60 - 1.50 pts TOP-20 @ 5.10
0.25 pts WIN J. Niemann @ 180.00    - 1.00 pts TOP-10 @ 11.00 - 1.50 pts TOP-20 @ 5.00

Oman Open & Honda Classic 2020

Europeantour action restarts in The Middle East this week at The Oman Open outside Muscat. Al Mouj GC is a links type course which is prone to the wind, which is always a factor in this part of the world.................maybe except for this week if the forecast is in anyway accurate. Highest winds forecasted for the week is ~16 kmh so conditions should be ideal for some really low scoring.

I'd love to be onside with Martin Kaymer this week but the 16/1 best price doesn't want me to. I've looked long and hard at this event but I'm not overly excited. I couldn't convince myself not to get with an old favourite of mine this week  in the shape of Ross Fisher. Ross is 35/1 (7 places) or 55.00 on the exchange and 10.00 (TOP-5) and 5.50 (TOP-10). The Englishman had a quiet year last year although he seemed to come to life towards the end of it and his recent form is encouraging too. He finished 6th in both Abu Dhabi & Riyadh a few weeks ago and is a renowned links player. This is not a strong field at all here this week - if wind does get up, patience will be key and the experience will be advantageous. But signs are there already in 2020 that Fisher could be in for a good year, he turns 40 years of age later this year and if he wants to take inspiration in reaching that milestone, he only has to look at The Saudi winner, Graeme McDowell who also turns 40 this year. Lee Westwood, winner in Abu Dhabi suggests my first post here of 2020 on the blog was silly as the young guns still look to fire.

Paul Waring has missed the cut in Saudi & Dubai this season but he posted 2 TOP-20s in Abu Dhabi and in Dubai last November at the DP World Tour Championship. Currently 74th in the OWGR, his goal surely is to make TOP-50 and get into more prestigious events and accumulate bigger ranking points. Another with strong links/wind pedigree, the Englishman will be happy to kick-start his season back in this part of the world and he could go well @ 35.00 here. I wouldn't be backing him any lower though but the price is fair enough in this strength of field. He went 20/22 last year with 6 TOP-10s to boast on the back of his sole win at The Nordea Masters in August 2018. Consistency has seen him rise to 74 and he can get back on track here having visited the past two seasons, albeit unsuccessful visits when finishing mc-44.


Oman Open Selections:

1.00 pts WIN R. Fisher @ 55.00
2.00 pts TOP-5 R. Fisher @ 10.00
1.00 pts e/w P. Waring @ 36.00 (7-places)


If Al Mouj GC is toughened up by wind, then we can expect the same at The PGA National GC in Jupiter, Florida where a decent field, despite only Koepka from the OWGR TOP-10 participating, tees it up. PGA National is ranked 2nd toughest of the "standard PGA events" and the Bear Trap over the closing 3 holes lays testament to how difficult it is to prevail.

In much the same way as I wanted to back Kaymer in Muscat, I wanted to get onside with Rickie Fowler here but the price is too low for me to pull the trigger. Instead, Ryan Palmer who I backed at The Sony Open, is taken to keep his form going at a course where he has done well at in the past.4th Last year and 2nd in 2014 shows he's more than capable. 75.00 on the exchange available or 61.00 (7-places) are value for Palmer at PGA. The Texan can also be backed @ 7.80 (TOP-10) & 4.60 (TOP-20). I'll complete my staking plan this week with some value on Wyndham Clark & Brian Stuard - Clark is available @ 70.00 / 9.50 (TOP-10) / 5.00 (TOP-20) whilst Brian Stuard is available @ 330.00/ 19.00 (TOP-10)/ 8.00 (TOP-20). Stuard has decent form here having posted 4 TOP-30s in his last 6 visits. Lets hope he go slightly better this time round.

Honda Classic Selections:

0.75 pts WIN R.Palmer @ 75.00
1.00 pts TOP-10 R.Palmer @ 7.80
1.00 pts TOP-20 R.Palmer @ 4.60
0.25 pts WIN W. Clark @ 70.00
1.00 pts TOP-10 W. Clark @ 9.50
1.00 pts TOP-20 @ W. Clark @ 5.00
0.25 pts WIN B. Stuard @ 330.00
1.00 pt TOP-10 B. Stuard @ 19.00
1.00 pt TOP-20 B. Stuard @ 8.00


Total Week Spend: 12.25 pts (Season P&L = +30.30 pts)

WGC Mexico 2020 - Chapultepec GC, Mexico

Adam Scott duly delivered last week at Riviera for the blog which puts the new found enthusiasm for the year ahead in a positive light, and I'll try and add to that this week as we start the countdown to Augusta.

The WGC heads back to Mexico for the 4th year,where past results suggest those at the top of their game, striking it well and finding greens will prevail. It has also shown that European Tour based players fare well at Chapultepec GC but the victories have gone the way of Dustin Johnson (2) and Phil Mickelson. The course is at altitude which is a factor to take into consideration and perhaps those that have been here the past 3 years will have a slight edge.

I wanted to back JT this week. His missed cut last can be ignored. He's been solid here on previous visits and is surely to contend on a course where he has the required form and experience. At 10/1(14.00 on the exchange) he is quite tempting, but I've backed just two this week. Matty Fitzpatrick was backed in Dubai last month to no avail, but I'm more than happy to side with him again here considering he's proven playing at altitude (Crans, Switzerland). This will be his 4th visit to Chapultepec, where his best finish to date is 16th on debut. He's been in fine form of late and was unlucky not to win in Abu Dhabi and he's definitely a player who raises to the challenge in these big events. I think he's great each way value here and it would not be a surprise should he be rewarded for so many near misses the past 12 months or so. 7 places @ 50/1 will do me !

My second selection is a speculative one in that he's been returning to form the past 6 months on the Asian Tour, rising the OWGR rankings to climb back inside the TOP-100. This week gives him a huge opportunity to capitalize further and spring a surprise. I'm keen to have a chance in the TOP-20 market and the tiniest of interests in the win market, where he could present a trading option should he start well. Step forward Ryo Ishikawa. The Japanese star has been solid the past 6 months having yielded a win at the end of 2019 in Japan before dusting off the 2020 cobwebs by finishing 24th at the Singapore Open last month.It's hard to believe he's still in his 20's (28 yrs old) and having now reached number 85 in the OWGR rankings, he will surely be motivated to improve further and make use of these events to accumulate as many points as he can. He may be an 18 time winner as a pro, but he is yet to perform on the stage outside of the Japan/Asian Tour and the bet here really is to make top-20 @ 8.50 which he's well capable of achieving if bringing his form of late to Mexico

Selections

1.00 pts e/w M.Fitzpatrick @ 51.00 (7 places)
2.00 pts TOP-20 R. Ishikawa @ 8.50
0.25 pts WIN R. Ishikawa @ 800.00

Genesis Invitational & Womens Australian Open 2020

I love Riviera GC ! The Genesis Invitational is for me, one of the best tournaments on the PGA Tour outside of the Majors and the sentiment has to be felt by players alike as yet again we have a very strong field teeing it up in California this week making the SOF ~ 645 pts with 70 OWGR points available to the winner.

The tournament is not without it's shock winners over recent years but I'm approaching this week with the view that the victor on Sunday will be a well established player given recent form of the field assembled. Brooks Koepka for me isn't fully fit, so he's the one exception. JT should have won here last year and he's sure to contend here this week but I'm keen on 2 players at value prices this week; Adam Scott & Marc Leishman. The two Aussies arrive having won last time out, Scott taking out the Australian PGA Championship the week before Christmas and his compatriot winning at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. Scott is available on Betfair @ 42.00, Leishman @ 55.00 with TOP-10 prices available @ 4.50 & 5.60 respectively.

As per my preview for this back in 2017, I backed Leishman @ 75.00 then and @ 67.00 in 2014 and he duly missed the cut both times despite an opening 67 in 2017 and a 69 in 2014. He was 5th the previous year in 2016 and produced a 4th place finish last year with 4 rounds in the 60's. I'm very keen on him this time round considering his form since returning to the Tour after spending time to support his very ill wife and his 9 TOP-10s in 24 starts in 2019 have led him to an early success in 2020, winning the Farmers last month. I'll opt for TOP-10 market to cover the places instead of the 11.00 on offer for TOP5 where dead heat rules always seem to get in the way of strong field tourneys

Adam Scott is mercurial to say the least but as he approaches 40 years of age, I can see Scott challenging strongly this year. (can't believe he's 40 having seen him play at the K Club for The European Open back in 2000). Riviera requires ball striking, and indeed Riviera and Torrey Pines are the only courses on the PGA Tour to feature Kikuyu grass on both fairways and in the rough. West Coast specialists as well as Australians and South Africans have a distinct advantage playing on this with Scott having posted 3 TOP-10s in his last 5 visits on top of a further 2 TOP-20 s within a 6 tournament spell, I'm keen to be with the Adelaide man at the prices.

Collin Morikawa was considered, particularly in the TOP-20 market but the 3.00 was deemed too short given Riviera usually rewards those who have course form

In the Women's Australian Open to be played at Royal Adelaide GC, a links type course requiring accuracy, I'm backing Ireland's Leona Maguire @ 120.00 outright and @ 8.50 for TOP-10. It may be a big step up for former World Amateur No.1 but last week's 4th place finish will exude confidence in the Cavan native and she has to be backed at these prices as she sets about making her mark on the LPGA. The prices will reduce over the months ahead!

Selections/Staking Plan

1.00 pts WIN. A. Scott @ 42.00
1.00 pts WIN M. Leishman @ 55.00

3.00 pts TOP-10 A. Scott @ 4.50
3.00 pts TOP-10 M. Leishman @ 5.60

(Women's Australian Open)
0.75 pts WIN . Leona Maguire @ 120.00
1.25 pts TOP-10 L.Maguire @ 8.50

Dubai Desert Classic 2020

The Dubai Desert Classic is hosted yet again at The Emirates GC. I was lucky enough to walk the course this time twelve months ago and follow Matty Fitzpatrick, Thomas Pieters and Lucas Bjerrgaard in one group whilst also keeping an eye on Martin Kaymer and Rafael Cabrera Bello on the Friday morning before catching a flight home. The course was immaculate but the one thing that I was surprised at was how much it has changed since `Mark James won the inaugural event in 1989. The Emirates course is a fully established parkland course these days with the sand surrounding the fairways of little impact to these players. Its most definitely a ball strikers course and the roll of honour down the years shows a pretty impressive list of who's who of World golf!There has been 8 different Masters winner here as well as Open & US Open Champions seeing victory also down the years. Being "desert golf" its easy to speculate that this would be a links-type golf course but the maturity of the course of the years leads me to believe this is no longer the case. Strong tee to green game is required here and those players that played and excelled in that department down the road in Abu Dhabi are likely to be in the mix here come Sunday.

Tommy Fleetwood left it all too late in Abu Dhabi as he clicked into gear over the weekend. He said though afterwards he was delighted to start the year so strongly and he'll take that positivity into this week where he can boast a pair of TOP10s in his 10 starts to date. It's not great form considering 2 missed cuts to boot and some lowly finishing positions but this is a much established Tommy Fleetwood these days.He finished runner-up last week to back up his runner-up finish in Dubai last November at the World Tour Championship finale a couple of blocks away. Prior to these last two starts, Tommy took out the Nedbank Challenge. Needless to say hes been in cracking form since the Autumn and last week's 2020 debut will do him no harm here this week.

Matty Fitzpatrick perhaps should have finished higher than his 16th placing 12 months ago when he tied alongside Fleetwood having started so well, but I was very impressed with his course management on that Friday morning and the way he was building his new relationship with Billy Foster on the bag. Perhaps this was highlighted more so by Thomas Pieters woeful course management that day but the Sheffield youngster was deadly with his approach play and there was a lot to like last week in Abu Dhabi too.

Last week I briefly mentioned those on my shortlist that were considered before finalizing my staking plan and this list included Fitzy, Wiesberger and Cabrera Bello, all three who have to be seriously considered here! Pieters,who was initially on my staking plan last week but dropped at the last minute once I had missed the price, is not considered this week having witnessed his game-plan during Round-2 at The Majlis last year. So as for Fitzpatrick, I expect a bold showing this week considering he was 4th in Abu Dhabi in the SG:ATG with +1.65 strokes.

Matt was very unlucky not to win on tour last year but I don't expect him to be waiting for the W for much longer. This is a big year and I feel we will see a lot of the Englishman over the next 9-10 months. He's not a bet though @ 12/1 with the bookies, but I'l back him on the exchange at 20.00 instead.

I wanted to see how Martin Kaymer played last week and I was impressed. He has opened at 40/1(now into 33s) for the Dubai Desert Classic and thats much better then my 28/1 tissue. Kaymer has decent form here, has reunited with his long term caddy, Craig Connolly, and looks to make a charge for the Ryder Cup team. 4 TOP-4s in his last 9 starts augurs well and indeed during the lean times he still managed a yield of 24-19-23 the past 3 years at The Dubai Desert Classic.

Renato Paratore bucks the trend in comparison to the two players above but he's a player I think can improve greatly this year too. No real form here at The Emirates GC to write about (mc-mc-42-26-13) but his recent form suggests he could improve on that here this week. A TOP-20 at the Dunhill was followed up by a runners-up placing in Mauritius, indeed it was a 3-man playoff where he lost out to Rasmus Hojgaard. He opened his 2020 campaign with a nice 21st placing last week. The price attracts me in here as the Italian could out perform the implied chances and he's included in the TOP-20 market @ 5.00

I will chance a bet on Romain Wattel putting in a decent effort this week. Having lost his card, the Frenchman will be keen to return to tour ASAP and this week gives him a chance to go about climbing the points ladder. He played on the Mena Tour last week in a Dubai Desert qualifying tournament, The Area Shootout at the Ras Al Kaimah and duly won the 36 hole event by 6.Much lower grade of course but the result and performance will do his confidence a load of good. He has shown form here before too, finishing 16th twelve months ago, 3rd in 2014 and a 12th in 2012. He's not without a chance of making the cut and producing another one of these finishes again and so he's chanced in the TOP-20/40 markets @ 12.00 & 4.50


Selections:

1.50 pts M. Fitzpatrick to win @ 20.00
1.00 pts e/w M.Kaymer @ 34.00 (1/5 - 7 places)
2.00 pts R. Paratore TOP-20 @ 5.00
1.50 pts R. Wattel TOP-20 @ 12.00
3.00 pts R. Wattel TOP-40 @ 4.50

Abu Dhabi Championship 2020

They used to use the tagline "Expect the Unexpected" for this Tournament, but I'd wager no-one expected the downfall of Martin Kaymer here in 2015 when infamously, he let a 10-shot lead in the final round slip to lose out to Gary Stal. The German hasn't won anywhere since. The former World Number One and two time Major Champion tees it up this week once again looking to find a result on a course that he has won three times on, as well as a further 4 TOP-6s. At 50/1 he'll have his backers,;he was tempting for me also but I've decided to not chase Martin Kaymer returns just yet, he does owe me nothing over the years, so whilst I do expect a big year from Kaymer, it's a watching brief for me here this week.....I will expect the expected!

This Championship is now part of The Rolex Series and that means that we should  start looking at the cream of the entries. Open Champion, Shane Lowry defends this week and he warmed up nicely last week by finishing runner-up to Wade Ormsby in Hong Kong. The Irishman has a Major, a WGC and a Rolex Series win under his belt and his goal this year is obvious....make the Ryder Cup European Team. He won't be the only player motivated to get a good result here and grab as many points as possible and they'll have to compete for those points against some high competition, including an American invasion in the Middle East in the shape of Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka, Bryson de Chambeau towards the head of the betting market. Of these three, it's Cantlay I'd prefer, but @ 10/1 I'd rather look for a bit of value down further. I'll do so,well aware that these Rolex Series events are being taken out by the leading golfers about, with just a couple of exceptions to date.

Thomas Pieters is (was) on my staking plan here despite trying to talk myself out of it. You take a chance on the Belgian Bomber each week and I've pondered whether I should take the 30/1 here or leave for another day, but his course form can't be ignored. This is a ball strikers course and Pieters has been fairly consistent since he took out the Czech Masters last August, finishing TOP-10 in 6 out of the next 10 tournaments. (as I review this post before publishing, Pieters' odds have dropped significantly enough for me to discard from the staking plan this week and be talked out of it!)

From my shortlist, I looked long and hard at Matty Fitzpatrick,Bernd Wiesberger,Danny Willett, George Coetzee,Ryan Fox, Rafael Cabrera Bello and Pablo Larrzabal. Of these, the price that stood out most for me was that of 75/1 - 80/1 about George Coetzee. Bernd Wiesberger's price is slightly better then expected, only just whilst the kiwi, Fox's @ 110/1 - 7 places was better than my 100s. Coetzee is my selection in the each way market here @ 75/1 - 8 places. Coetzee showed a gradual return to form towards the end of 2019 following time off through injury and he played nicely last week in Johannesburg to finish 6th. He recorded two TOP-25s in Mauritius & the Alfred Dunhill previous to that. I actually had him @ 55/1 for this week. He did miss the cut here the last two years and whilst there have been course changes over the recent years, he does hold Middle East Form and indeed posted 3 TOP-10s between 2012 -2014 here.Well capable in the wind, big George is a play at the price.

The aforementioned Ryan Fox arrives fresh for the new season, so it remains to be seen if he can hit the ground running. His last three visits yielded 27-39-19. A brace of TOP-30s in December though at the Australian Open & PGA championships suggest that his form is decent enough and he won't arrive totally cold, and hes taken in the TOP-20 market @ 5.50 to maintain that sort of form for a return.

Selections:

1 pt e/w George Coetzee @ 76.00 - 8 places
3 pts TOP-20 Ryan Fox @ 5.50

Sony Open 2020

Waialae GC hosts the Sony Open once again in Hawaii this week where the first full field of 2020 assembles. Justin Thomas heads the market having won last week at Kapalua GC in a winners only field from the 2019 season. JT looks to do the double-double having won both the TOC & Sony Open in 2017. Winners of the past 6 Sony Opens all played at the Tournament of Champions the week previous, suggesting that they have an edge on their competitors in terms of having "warmed up". I'm leaning the same way with my picks for the week in that Kevin Kisner teed it up last week, played well before just missing out on a TOP-10. With the run out under his belt, hes taken to follow up with a solid performance again this week. I had made him a 30/1 - 33/1 chance this week so was pleasantly surprised to see 50/1 available. He has course form and the signs were there last week that his game is in good nick.

Ryan Palmer is not a player I'd consider too often, mostly because of his lack on wins on tour over the years. However, I can't ignore his level of consistency over the past few months with 6 TOP-20s in his last 11 starts since he missed the cut at The PGA Championship at Bethpage . Of his 4 PGA Tour titles, one came here at The Sony Open 10 years ago! He likes the wind and he too warmed up nicely last week finishing 17th. 80/1 with 8 places has plenty of value


So, 4 golfers between South Africa and Hawaii and I've opted for 3 mid-30 year olds ! They're a lot younger than I, but we'll get plenty of chances to back the kids down the line soon!

Selections:
1 pt e/w K. Kisner @ 50/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w R.Palmer @ 80/1 - 8 places

South African Open 2020

Welcome back to the blog....it's been quite awhile since I last wrote a proper preview, despite putting up selections throughout 2019. Having missed the weekly challenge of doing the research,pricing the field, looking for some value and then writing the preview, I feel compelled to tackle it again this year in earnest as the year ahead on both the Europeantour & PGA Tour look to be exciting prospects from both spectator & betting point of views.

It hasn't been easy the past 2-3 seasons,and the P&L certainly reflects that, but I note other reputable golf tipsters have found it tough going of late also. Others though are doing well which is heartening and it motivates me to turn it around this year. It's evident that the quality of the competition is much higher than it was 5 to 7 years ago, the elite normally get the job done most weeks these days. Its getting harder to identify where the golfer will outplay his odds nevermind when he will! Something has to change if we are to re turn to profitable ways, so, as I tried to over the past 3 years, before returning to each way betting last year, I believe by concentrating on the TOP10/20 and other side markets may be the better option for some tournaments over others.The young guns are also taken to deliver more often than the "35yr old plus veterans". He say this as the South African Open looks likely to be contended by the experienced players like Louis Oosthuizen, Charles Schwartzel and perhaps Richard Sterne and George Coetzee, all in their 30s! With a field of 240 in Johannesburg this week, we should expect to find some value. However, I do think Oosty will be hard to beat here...there's no doubting how much this National Title means to him and his fellow compatriots. He will be up for this!

Min Woo Lee @ 50/1 is very tempting for me with 7 places or  45/1 with 8 places on offer. The Hojgaard twins, Rasmus & Nicolai @ 60/1 & 250/1 respectively are also appealing this week with the former having won in Mauritius.

Its the opening event of the year, there is a bit of rust about, a 240 man field with tournament host, Louis Oosthuizen in fine form of late.He had a decent performance at The Presidents Cup too. Its small stakes to start this week with a couple of better chances to punt in Hawaii.
Min Woo Lee is taken @50/1 e/w. The Aussie is in great form. TOP-3 at The Australian PGA Championship followed up TOP-3 at the NSW Open. two weeks prior. He's not as rusty as others here following competitive golf right up to Christmas Week.

Former readers of the blog will be aware of my respect for Irishman, Gavin Moynihan. The Dubliner lost his card and missed out at Q-School in November but will have limited starts available on the Europeantour along with the Challenge Tour. He will be confident following a good end of last season despite the disappointment, the highlight of his season having finished T5 at Le Golf National at the end of October. Gavin was 9/16 events on tour last year with the solo T5 in Paris and a further 3 TOP-20s to boot. He's seen his good mate, Paul Dunne start his professional career in flying fashion whilst he struggled to settle. Now the Greystones man is in the same boat, looking to kick start his career once more and we can be assured that both of them will work hard in 2020 to fulfil their dreams. For me, the Portrane double Irish Amateur Champion is the better golfer of the two,and this could be his breakthrough year. With a superb short game, a tight short track as presented over both Firethorn & Bushwillow GCs may give him the opportunity to kick start his season very quickly. I'm backing him to put in a solid effort here and grab at least a TOP-30 @ 5/1.

Selections:

1 pt e/w Min Woo Lee @ 50/1 (7 places)
4 pts TOP-30 Gavin Moynihan @ 5/1