Wednesday 26 May 2021

Charles Schwab Challenge 2021 - Colonial GC, Fort Worth Texas

I have 4 selections this week on the PGA Tour, albeit speculative picks. I'm siding with guys that I think their short game will stand them in good stead at Colonial at the prices. Charley Hoffman has shown recently that his game is in good form. He has also played well here in the past where he missed the cut for the first time in 9 visits twelve months ago, an event that we shouldn't read into too much as it was the first event out of covid-19 lockdown. At 45/1 - 7 places Charley could be of some value here 

 Ryan Palmer may not be a prolific or regular winner on tour but he has and continues to accumulate a lot of cash out on tour and Colonial is a home game for the Texan this week - He is a member here and plays it more regularly than your local golf club member would at his/her club! I made Palmer 50/1 for the week and did so being conservative (40-50s) so to see him widely available @ 70/1 - 7 places is an automatic bet for me. A bunch of TOP-10s over the years suggests he should be lower in the market despite the quality of players in the field

1.96%Tournament /Course Form
My ShortlistBest OddsBetfairMy OddsMy % BookProbabilityValue (Y/N)T-10 OddsT-20 Odds2020201920182017201620152014201320122011
Ryan Palmer7671511.96%0.02YES6.53.4mc6mc703mc514531


I put up Camilo Villegas a couple of weeks ago only to see him withdraw but I'm willing to chance again here this week @ 150/1 - 8 places & 5/1 for a TOP-20 based on the comment made for the Byron Nelson that he was simmering for a good week

Lastly, I have spent some time looking at the chances of Andrew Putnam having posted a couple of good results at Colonial in 2019 & 2020 (3rd & 20th). The Washington State native could restart his season here having had good form in the past and put an end to the 6 missed cuts in his last 7 starts. Prior to that though, he posted two T-5s at Bay Hill and in Puerto Rico. Its a speculative punt for sure in the hope that Colonial will kickstart him again and if he can bring his putting prowess this week where he ranks inside the TOP-20 on tour presently, he could surprise.


Selections:
1pt e/w C. Hoffman @ 45/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w R. Palmer @ 70/1 - 7 places
0.5 pts e/w C. Villegas @ 150/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w A. Putnam @ 200/1 - 8 places


Tuesday 25 May 2021

Made In Himmerland 2021 - HimmerLand, Farsø, Denmark

 A competitive field descends on Himmerland, Denmark for Europeantour action this week, where Scotland's Robert Macintyre heads the betting marker where not only having finished runner up here last time to Bernd Wiesberger, but arrives in solid form having competed against fields of much higher standing than he is confronted in Farso. He may be young enough to recoup so soon after Kiawah Island and the travel but he's far too short for my liking this week.

My ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy Odds
Matthias Schwab262919
Justin Harding344426
Calum Hill313529
Joost Luiten415941
Guido Migliozzi464336
Alexander Bjork716751
Richie Ramsay8111461
Jordan Smith9113381
Chris Paisley111133101
Maverick Antcliff11114371
Pablo Larrazabal141209101
David Horsey141219111


From my shortlist above, I eliminated Joost Luiten based on price allowing for my tissue correction but then zoned in on 5 players that I think give me some value.(highlighted). I think Justin Harding is the better option than Schwab for the course we are faced with, despite the Austrian posting a T-10 in 2019 and the South African making his debut. Harding has posted 5 T-20s in his last 7 starts with a win secured in Kenya and @ 33/1 - 7 places -  I have to go back in again

Guido Migliozzi missed out in a play-off to Richard Bland LTO at The Belfry and like Harding, I had backed him in the Canaries to no avail but I am pleasantly surprised to see the same price available this week @ 33/1 as he looks to improve on his 2 T-5s and 4 T-20s from his 10 starts on tour this year. He finished a lowly 33rd in 2019 on his only visit to date but is clearly improving and growing in confidence on the tour and this week gives him a great chance to go one better than the previous event.

Like Harding & Migliozzi, Alexander Bjork has been backed already this year where I had hoped he would have gone better in the English Midlands but he's certainly rounding into decent form. He's only played 8 events so far in 2021 and has posted 2 T-20s, these coming in Tenerife & Qatar. Throw in the 30th placing in England and 21st in Gran Canaria, the Swede isn't far away and should his putter warm up here as we know it can, he could find being back in this part of the world will suit @ 60/1 - 7 places 

Lastly, I think it's worth playing Aussie, Maverick Antcliff at the price, 100/1 - 7 places. The Queenslander had a successful 2019 PGA Tour of China campaign and has shown plenty of glimpses that he will win soon on one of the elite tours. He may have been a distant runner-up to Garrick Higgo in the Canary Islands Championship but he doesn't miss many cuts, he posts a scatter of decent results that has seen him rise to world ranking of 200 and I'm sure he's going to win very soon on this tour.


Selections

1.75 pts e/w J. Harding @ 33/1 - 7 places
1.75 pts e/w G. Migliozzi @ 33/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w A. Bjork @ 60/1 - 7 places
0.75 pts e/w M. Antcliff @ 110/1 - 7 places



Monday 17 May 2021

PGA Championship 2021 - Kiawah Island, South Carolina

 We head from Texas back eastwards to South Carolina for the 2nd Major of the year to be hosted by Kiawah Island this week, where no doubt the Asian players are in confident mood following KH Lee's first PGA tour win at the Byron Nelson Championship and Hideki Matsuyama's Augusta win last month. 

Same can be said for the Irish contingent though, as Rory McIlroy ended his drought last time out by winning the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago and arrives here having won his second Major Championship at Kiawah Island by 8 shots back in 2012. The defending Open Champion, Shane Lowry and former PGA champion Padraig Harrington, make up that Irish stable for the week ahead and there's reason to believe they can all go well here. Like McIlroy, Harrington too has tasted success at Kiawah having won the World Cup for Ireland alongside Paul McGinley in 1997. Being an out and out links track subjected to wind, Shane Lowry should be right at home here also. I do fancy Shane to contend here this week despite drop in form of late. Kiawah is an ideal course with ideal wind conditions that will not faze him and should his driving game be on point this week, we can expect the Offaly man to challenge hard for his second major come Sunday. "Shano" may need to buck the trend of recent PGA Championship winners having already won in the current season with my selection, but he's 11/13 this season on the PGA tour this season with 2 TOP-10s coming at Sawgrass and at the RBC Heritage both of which are Pete Dye designs as is the case here at Kiawah. The Open Champion is an ideal fit for Kiawah and I have already placed a few quid on the exchange as high as 110.00 /120.00 over the past few weeks and @ 80/1 - 8 places for the each way markets.


If I'm angling in at links form, then double Irish Open winner, Jon Rahm cannot be discounted here. The Spaniard is in brilliant form without a win this season, but posting 11/12 with 7 TOP-10s from those 12 outings shows he's in fine fettle despite the personal distractions and excitement in becoming a father for the first time days before The Masters. He duly missed the cut the week after Augusta but thats easy to write off as nappy changing was the focus. He warmed up nicely last week without overly exerting himself to play all 4 days in McKinney. Twice a winner of the Irish Open at Portstewart and Lahinch, both links courses emphasizes his ability for this type of test and of the market leaders is the one I'd prefer to be with. "he's due a win" too.....he has contended in nearly all events this year, a surprisingly 5th place at Augusta amongst the personal excitement, a T10 at Sawgrass, and those TOP-10s all point to a big week here. He's now ready to go! I've taken the 17.00 on the exchange. I'm very keen on his chances this week


I think its a week to chance Martin Kaymer at huge odds too. The double Major Champion will also like the course this week. Often correlated to Whistling Straits where he won his PGA Championship in 2014, the German also took out the US Open at Pinehurst which also features links-type attributes. Kaymer's portfolio of victories includes Scottish Opens, Dunhill Links, KLM Open, The Players, Abu Dhabi Championships, and his recent form over the past 12-18 months has been solid despite scorning many chances to end the winless drought, which is a concern, but he could just find it here this week - there are no rules that he must win somewhere else before taking down another Major. Of course, there is the uncertainty that he cannot close out the deal these days so I've backed him @ 600.00 on the exchange with a view to trading should he go well. At 250/1 - 10 places, he's worth a small wager also.

I've considered both Tommy Fleetwood and Patrick Reed also, but felt their prices were fair enough. I'm looking forward to watching it this year more so then other years when for various reasons I've been away and missed a lot of the action so its just three before the off for me.


Selections

1.50 pts S. Lowry @ 80/1 - 8 places
4.00 pts WIN J. Rahm @ 16/1
0.50 pts e/w M. Kaymer @ 2501/ - 10 places







Tuesday 11 May 2021

Byron Nelson 2021 - TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas

 We have another new course for the PGA Tour this week, one week ahead of the PGA Championship to be played at Kiawah Island. Last week we were in Charlotte, North Carolina some 3 hours north of Kiawah but this week we have headed out west towards Dallas to play at TPC Craig Ranch. Those that tee it up next week will make the trip back ! That in itself, suggests the market leaders may be using this week as a pure warm up and dont be surprised to see some of those miss the cut as they focus on the second Major instead. Well....try tell Jordan Spieth that as he won in Texas the week before the Masters and he may find being back home this week to his liking. None of the market leaders are for me though here.


Camilo Villegas is of interest @ 150/1. The Colombian has shown solid form of late as he has slowly resumed life on tour following personal tragedy for he and his wife last July. 

PlayerAge
OWGREventsNo of Cuts madeNo of TOP10sNo of TOP20sHonda ClassicCorales (2021)Texas OpenMastersRBC HeritageValspar ChampionshipWells Fargo
Camilo Villegas39213178248mc17-2511-

A TOP-10 to add to two T-20s & T-25 shows he's playing well.


I put up Marc Leishman at Riviera where he finished a low 32nd but I'm willing to chance him again here at an event he has done very well over the years. From his last 10 starts at the Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest GC and TPC Four Seasons, the Aussie has banked a lot of top results....and cash to boot!

213mcmc3123mc128

A runners up finish last time out in 2018 behind Aaron Wise followed some serious results in between three missed cuts and he's taken to repeat again @ 33/1 - 8 places


Selections

1 pt e/w C. Villegas @ 1501 - 8 places
2 pts e/w M. Leishman @ 33/1 - 8 places


British Masters 2021 - The Belfry

It's a Wednesday start on the European Tour this week to accommodate travel arrangements for next week's second Major at Kiawah Island.

This year's event is hosted by Danny Willet at The Belfry,scene of some great Irish golfing occasions during Ryder Cup,most notably Christy O'Connor Junior on 18 that day. A tree lined, immaculate course that will suit accurate, but aggressive players awaits.

I couldn't find much value in all honesty this week except for the players below who could have a good week at a course that will suit.

Selections

1 pt e/w A. Bjork @ 90/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w S. Hend @ 150/1- 8 places

Wednesday 5 May 2021

Wells Fargo Opening Round Threeballs - 2 selections

 I'm interested in two threeball bets tomorrow @ Quail Hollow and have added to the 2021 Threeball Tracker


Chesson Hadley to bt C. Schwartzel & P. RodgersBetfair3.251.00
Shane Lowry to bt K. Mitchell & J. DufnerBetfair2.301.00

Simmons Bank Open 2021, Korn Ferry Tour - The Grove, Nashville

 Carl Yuan went close for the blog last week having held the first round lead before parring the rest of the tournament to finish T-16th. He's definitely one to watch again this week even at 55/1.

I do however, want to get onside with the namesake again here although only @ 40/1, the price having moved out following a missed cut last week. That's probably a good thing as Max can easily shake-off that result and go close again here. McGreevy posted his first missed cut since the Lecom Classic but in the meantime has been beaten in a playoff and posted a further 3 TOP-20s. From his 2021 starts on the KFT the Oklahoma native has posted 2 T-10s and another 2 T-20s from those 7 starts as per my tracker below.

Max has a win under his belt from last July, has gone close again when losing that playoff five starts ago and is proven to date that he relishes the heat of the battle having had such a successful season on the China PGA tour. He's preferred over Chad Ramey here despite Ramey looking likely to win soon. With McGreevy 4 pts bigger in the betting I'm side with the man just two places below in The25 rankings. 

Season StatsRecent Tournament Results- Korn Ferry
Season StartsSeason WINSSeason T-10sSeason T-20sHuntsvilleVeritexMGM ChampEmerald ClassicClub Car ChampLouisianaLecom
7024mc281710212mc


I'll also include Andrew Novak into the staking plan @ 28/1. The North Carolina native has been in great form of late posting 4 T-10s in his last 4 starts as per tracker below. Indeed in those last 4 events he's posted 12 sub-70 rounds. 4 more here should see go very close.

Season StatsRecent Tournament Results- Korn Ferry
Season StartsSeason WINSSeason T-10sSeason T-20sHuntsvilleVeritexMGM ChampEmerald ClassicClub Car ChampLouisianaLecom
704475933436mc

Selections:

1 pt e/w A. Novak @ 28/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w M. McGreevy@ 40/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w C. Yuan @ 55/1 - 6 places


Wells Fargo Championship 2021 - Quail Hollow, Charlotte North Carolina

We have a decent field assembling this week for the Wells Fargo Championship, just two weeks out from the PGA Championship. Quail Hollow will again host this year, the venue having hosted the 2017 PGA Championship when JT captured his first and to date his only Major. Rory McIlroy also tees it up for the first time since Augusta and it's interesting to see not only his OWGR ranking slip out but also his odds to win (18/1) 

The market is headed by JT and Bryson DeChambeau who are then joined by John Rahm, Victor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Tony Finau, Patricks Reed and Cantlay,...... and the list goes on.....

Given the market leaders' competitiveness we have here, I'm chancing a couple of players at bigger prices who I think can put in a solid week. Joel Dahmen and Talor Gooch have course form. The former recently won at the Corales Championship whilst Gooch was 5th at Sawgrass before missing the cut last week.Gooch has posted for top 20s from his 16 starts this season whilst Dahmen has posted three top twenties to go alongside his win from his 16 starts. Indeed it's Dahmen who finished runner up here last time in 2019 and 16th in 2018 that looks to be of some value to me this week. 

Selections
1pt e/w J. Dahmen @ 70.00 - 10 places
1pt e/w T. Gooch @ 90.00 - 10 places 

Tuesday 4 May 2021

Canary Islands Championship 2021 - Golf Costa Adeje, Tenerife, Spain

 Dean Burmester really motored to victory on this course last week and following his compatriot's win the week before on Gran Canaria, whilst the party might have been good, I expect the South Africans are aiming for a clean sweep in the Canaries Swing this week.

In short, I'm happy to back Burmy to go back to back and complement the staking plan with another compatriot, Justin Harding.

Of the rest, I did consider Laurie Canter and Sebastian Heisele  but both were too short for me.

Wells Fargo & possibly the Simmons Bank Open on the Korn Ferry Tour this week may give better opportunities!

Selections

2 pts e/w D. Burmester @ 16/1 - 7 places
2 pts e/w J. Harding @ 18/1 - 7 places