Wednesday, 30 January 2019

Phoenix Open - RD-1 Threeballs

Two selections from opening round at TPC Scottsdale

EventPhoenix Open
StakeSelectionOddsTotal Cost of BetMarketResult
3.00B.Steele to bt Kim & Hughes2.403.00Threeball RD-1
2.00T. Mullinax to bt Power & Gay2.382.00Threeball RD-1

Tuesday, 29 January 2019

Saudi International 2019 - Royal Greens GC, KEAC, Saudi Arabia

The inaugural Saudi International creates many headlines within the political space this week, but I'm keen on some value players nonetheless and have created a shortlist of 13 players from which I've settled on 5 for the staking plan.

It should be windy, the course is shortish and a tight accurate game looks like the criteria this week.

My card this week :

Date31/01/2019Total Outlay10.00
EventSaudi InternationalTotal Returns0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
1.00Romain Langasque (1/5 - 7 places)81.002.00e/w0.00
1.00Aaron Rai (1/5 - 7 places)101.002.00e/w0.00
1.00Paul Waring (1/5 - 7 places)81.002.00e/w0.00
1.00Gaganjeet Bhullar (1/5 - 7 places)251.002.00e/w0.00
1.00Kurt Kitayama (1/5 - 7 places)201.002.00e/w0.00

As per trail towards the end of last season, I looked at dutching some of the players on the shortlist in the outright win only markets, giving me some opportunities to lay throughout the tournament. I'm going to record the dutching system here going forward as well. 

The weekly cards as per above will be accessible here

The 13 players from the shortlist this week being

Bryson Dechambeau15/2
Eddie Pepperell67/1
Ross Fisher81/1
Romain Langasque91/1
Aaron Rai101/1
Paul Waring101/1
Bernd Wiesberger151/1
Victor Dubuisson126/1
Gaganjeet Bhullar251/1
Paul Dunne226/1
Kurt Kitayama251/1
Alejandro Canizares351/1
Edoardo Molinari601/1

Tuesday, 15 January 2019

Abu Dhabi Championship 2019 - Abu Dhabi GC

A Wednesday start this week sees the first of the Rolex Series events on the European Tour of 2019 tee it up at Abu Dhabi GC in the UAE. Tommy Fleetwood goes in search of a hat-trick having won here the past two years and he's joined by the World's Numbers 2 & 3, Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson. The World ranking points on offer are significantly higher than on offer on the PGA Tour, with the SoF almost 60 points higher. The field is strong and boosted by the appearance of Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace, and Ryder Cuppers, Tyrell Hatton, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Henrik Stenson, Thomas Pieters,and Thorbjorn Olesen. Three time winner here, Martin Kaymer looks to start the year as always with a return to form on a course that has always fitted his eye.

As per my preview twelve months ago, its pretty much the same approach for me again this time round. I thought Kaymer couldn't be ignored at 33/1 last year, and with some signs of return to some consistency towards the end of 2018, perhaps he's better equipped for Abu Dhabi this week than he was in 2018, where he finished 27th. At 50/1 (6 places) this time round, in pretty much the same way of thinking as per the 2018 preview, it's a price that has to be taken for a player that performs so well on this course in Abu Dhabi.

Byeong-Hun An I made as a 28/1- 33/1 chance here so the 40/1 for a top ball striker who has Middle East form couldn't go un-backed. He tends to go well on these type of courses, has proven results in the UAE and at the price has to be taken.

Jeunghun Wang is capable of much more this season, and he too tees it up here knowing he brings UAE form having finished TOP-15 here the past two seasons. 150/1 is far too big for a player well capable of contending.( I make him 100/1 at worst) A three time Europeantour winner, of which one was in neighbouring Qatar, the South Korean tees it up early Wednesday alongside Jordan Smith and Fabrizio Zanotti.

I'll complete my staking plan with South African Erik Van Rooyen who makes his course debut. Again 100/1 is enticing considering the form he showed last season, grabbing T-10s in Morocco,Denmark, South Africa and Ireland, not to mention a T-20 at The Open. He's slightly favoured ahead of Shane Lowry, the Irishman will be motivated to make Harrington's Ryder Cup team and will want to hitting form throughout 2019 if he wants a chance of making the team for Whistling Straits.

Date16/01Total Outlay6.00
EventAbu Dhabi ChampionshipTotal Returns0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
1.00Martin Kaymer (6 places)51.002.00E/W0.00
1.25Byeonghun An41.002.50E/W0.00
0.25Jeunghun Wang151.000.50E/W0.00
0.50Erik Van Rooyen101.001.00E/W0.00

Wednesday, 9 January 2019

Sony Open Threeballs

Two Round-1 threeballs added to the week’s card

Brian Harmon should have a good week here and can see off Jim Herman and Jason Dufner @2.05

Sungjae Im is a player to keep an eye on this season. He could do anything this week but it’s a confident pick to beat Nick Taylor and Brandon Harkins @2.20

Monday, 7 January 2019

Sony Open 2019

Just two selections for this week’s Sony Open for me. I was tempted by Charles Howell but missed the 40s earlier and now at best price 33/1, he’s easy to leave out.

Instead I’ll take two players at decent odds to hopefully put in another solid performance here at Wai’alae GC. Chris Kirk has form here as too does Jamie Lovemark. The latter got married in Hawaii in Nov 2016 and has yielded two TOP-10s in 3 visits so I’m hoping good vibes this week kick in @125/1

Kirk has missed the cut here the last two years but he does have two TOP-5s to boot. He’s always done well on these green types and there’s a bit of value at 80s for the week.

I’ll update the card below perhaps on Wednesday with first round threeball selections should there be any.