Monday, 25 May 2009

European Open

Ross Fisher defends his title at The London Club this week, and will be feeling very confident after his gallant effort on Sunday at Wentworth.It was an unlucky bid, his eagle putt on 18 looked in and I felt if he got it he would have won the playoff, but to be fair Paul Casey is a class act and despite yet another 2nd place for me the balance was slightly increased so not a bad result, despite Quiros having a disapointing weekend finishing T 16th, when, after the luck on his 36th hole, it looked as if he might challenge. At 40/1 this week, which has me tempted but he needs to find his putting game so I will relunctantly sidestep Alvaro this week. Ross Fisher is too short at 12/1 so I will opt for Martin Kaymer at 28/1, the German had up and down rounds (2nd & 3rd) before posting a good effort on Sunday and I think he can win this week.Thomas Aiken will win on tour this year and is in decent form so he is kept on again this week. Reducing the numbers to select each week, I will also have a small interest in Raphael Jacquelin, who is in very good form and having qualified for the US Open at Walton Heath I'm sure he will bring that confidence into this week.

Bank Balance after BMW Championship (YTD) +147.63

European Open Selects
2.5 units e/w M.Kaymer @ 28/1
1.5 units e/w T.Aiken @ 50/1
1 unit e/w R. Jacquelin @ 100/1

Monday, 18 May 2009

BMW Championship

So another Irish Open passes without a collect, in fact a fairly dismal effort it has to be said with all four selects missing the cut. That meant I hadno shout the weekend,but thanks to Shane Lowry who provided great interest from an Irishman's point of view the weekend as he completed the fairytale success at Baltray. It provides some consolation in that no-one would have tipped him to win his national Open. However, the bank remains healthy (+143.75)and its back into the saddle for this weeks event which sees the strongest line-up in Europe this season. With the top 3 in the betting market having all won in The US last month (Stenson, Casey & Cabrera)it makes this weeks event very competitive. Whilst Cabrera should go well, again I like to look for the value bets and despite a bad weekend at Baltray, Lee Westwood showed great form the first 2 days last week and I have to have an interest at 25/1 as the course will suit his driving. Others to have an interest in this weekend are Ross Fisher at 33/1,Alvaro Quiros at 66/1 (just cannot pass up these odds for this quality of player) and a small punt also has to be had on a player in excellent form at present in Thongchai Jaidee at 80/1. lets hope the weather improves and our luck returns !

Bank Balance after Irish Open for year to date (YTD) = + 143.75

BMW Championship Selects

2 units e/w Lee Westwood @ 25/1
1.5 units e/w Ross Fisher @ 33/1
1 unit e/w Alvaro Quiros @ 66/1
.5 units e/w Thongchai Jaidee @ 80/1

Monday, 11 May 2009

Irish Open

A very disappointing effort both in Italy & Sawgrass last week, very little to shout come Sunday, Martin Kaymer lying 17th heading into Sundays round but he had a disaster to finish 55th! This week sees one of the strongest line ups for the 3 Irish Open at Baltray, Co. Louth in a long time and a tournament that I have not much success on the betting front for a few years, perhaps that could change this weekend. There are quite a few in the shakeup, McIlroy loves links golf, his caddy knows the place inside out, not to mention Rory has been a visitor many times. At 14/1, though its tempting, but with the bank doing quite well (despite no return last week) I think the value is to be sought again as Paddy Power offer 6 places for e/w betting. I was tempted to make it a total South African invasion this week in the shape of Schwartzel,Oosthuizen, Sterne and Aiken but its the latter two that I will take a punt on.Richard Sterne is a very consistent performer and has the short game to do well in Co. Louth and Thomas Aiken is becoming a golfer to be reckoned with in every tournament as his top 5 finish in Italy proves. Both are at 50/1 which is good value for these consistent performers. A little interest has to be had in Mark Brown, the kiwi originally from Wellington who will be quite used to weather conditions and the links format and at 125/1 cannot be left out of my permutations. Alejandro Canizares had dipped last year and for awhile earlier this season but his 14th finish last week after 24th in Spain the week before suggests the spaniard is moving back in the right direction.

Irish Open Selections
1.5 units e/w R.Sterne @ 50/1
1.5 units e/w T.Aiken @ 50/1
1 unit e/w M.Brown @ 125/1
1 unit e/w A. Canizares @ 100/1

Tuesday, 5 May 2009

Italian Open & Players Championship

Another profitable weekend last week with Peter Lawrie finishing tied 3rd in Spain, means I will look at spreading my weekly 10 units for the time being across both the European Tour & PGA as the latter heads for Sawgrass which is always a fascinating tournament to watch. Whilst it is considered the "5th major" its worth remembering that past winners do reflect the elite of the tour, despite Tiger only winning once at Sawgrass. The only notable outsider in recent years being Craig Perks. This year however may suggest the winner may come from "the pack", and for that reason Zach Johnson who has shown good form this season already is selected to do well at 55/1. European challengers should come from Garcia, Stenson, Harrington,Donald & Casey but I will have some interest in Martin Kaymer at 8/1 to finish in the top ten.

Players Selections:
1.5 units e/w Z.Johnson @ 55/1
1 unit M. Kaymer to finish in top ten @ 8/1

The Italian Open, sees the favourites lining up in the shape of Molinari, Schwartzel and Soren Hansen. I always like Soren but at odds @ 16/1 its an event to look for better value. Alvaro Quiros was tipped last week and he had two great rounds (68 & 67) sandwich either side of 75 & 76. A sign of a winner by posting the 67 on Sunday when not in contention ensures I keep the faith and at odds of 22/1 he has to be taken. Alexander Noren at 20/1 maybe a bit short in the betting but this is an ideal tournament for the Swede who should have won by now and as he is fresh I am finding it hard to ignore him. With some punts being placed on Sawgrass, I have to have an interest in Noren despite Hennie Otto being on offer @ 90/1.

Italian Open Selections

1.5 units A.Quiros @ 22/1
1.5 units A. Noren @ 20/1