Farmers Insurance (San Diego) Open 2022 - Torrey Pines North & South Courses.... (& LPGA selection)

 It's a Wednesday start on the PGA Tour this week.......apparently NFL takes over the weekend so the PGA bring this event forward a day to keep sponsors & TV people happy. I'm not complaining as it means we can get cracking early and with Dubai starting early hours Thursday we should be treated to some great golf this week. The LPGA also looks to be a quality event too, where I'm backing Lydia Ko to go one better than twelve months ago @ 10/1. The kiwi showed real signs throughout 2021 that her game was coming back and a more settled Lydia Ko could do some damage this season. Think the price is more than fair given her recent form.

At Torrey Pines, Jon Rahm will be delighted to be playing competitive golf at a decent course ! Moreso at one that he has tasted US Open success here last June and also when he won this event back here in 2017 before posting finishes of 7-2-5 in his last three visits for the San Diego Open. 15/2 best price might be tempting with 6 & 7 places abegging but I'm going go chance just two players here this week in the shape of Tony Finau & Lanto Griffin.

Finau loves Torrey Pines and has suggested for a while that a WIN will come here at some point. 2nd last year followed a run of 6-13-6-4-18-24 at the Farmers despite missing the cut at the US Open at a much different setup. He did however, go on to eventually capture his second PGA title in August and Tony Finau is a more accomplished player these days and is surely to win again soon and this venue gives him a great opportunity to do so @ 28/1 - 5 places (there was 28's - 7 places readily available Monday)

Lanto Griffin seemed to enjoy his week's work at the American Express and can follow up with a solid week here @ 66/1 - 8 places. 7th and 12th in the past 3 visits (mc in between) suggests that he's au fait with the courses and having posted 3 TOP-10s already in his 7 starts this season. The 33 year old who hails from North California is taken to keep his form up

Selections

2 pts e/w Tony Finau @ 28/1 - 5 places

1 pt  e/w L. Griffin @ 66/1 - 8 places

2 pts e/w L. Ko @ 10/1 - 6 places

Dubai Desert Classic 2022 - Emirates GC, Dubai, UAE

 

The Desert Swing moves on from Abu Dhabi up to Dubai this week, a journey of just over one hour. I wonder if this will be the last time that the entourage will travel by car and if the hyperloop will be operational in twelve months time when that same journey should take just over 12 minutes instead. The UAE continues to attract huge investments and it was inevitable in the end that its commercial power would influence the tour before finally taking over. The Dubai Desert Classic will be the second of the 5 Rolex Series throughout 2022, the first being completed in Abu Dhabi last week before we all meet up again down the road at the Jumeirah Estates in November. Thomas Pieters grabbed his first Rolex Series title last week and the Series can boast another "top" player winning as Pieters has Ryder Cup experience to complement his other 5 victories to date on his resume. The Series in its short history has shown that the top players are tending to prevail and I believe that will continue here at The Emirates GC and that Rory is the man to beat. Collin Morikawa will like to make his trip to the Middle East a success on the course but I'm sure his fiancee, will see the trip a success after all the shopping, and that could be a distraction for him for sure,but the course will suit this elite ball striker. However, despite the heavyweights teeing it up here I'm happy to get some each way value further down the market

I think there is a bit of value in both Laurie Canter and Adri Arnaus here having shortlisted the Englishman last week. Canter was 4th here twelve months ago and despite a missed cut in Abu Dhabi I reckon he will be better suited to this track then last week's. The 60/1 - 7 places is tempting as is the same price on Arnaus. Whilst Canter now sees himself inside the OWGR TOP-100, the Spaniard is ranked ~40 places higher but he is heading in the same direction as Canter and can improve on his 9th & 3rd place finishes the past two years at the Emirates. 

Our winner last week in action at The Emirates

I'm completing my staking plan this week with Robert McIntyre, Lucas Herbert, Antoine Rozner,Garrick Higgo, and Thorbjorn Olesen. I have never gone with 7 players before and yet despite the obvious market leaders surely to contend, I think it's worth chancing the stable here. It was nearly 8 as well but deemed Joachim B Hansen just a little short for my liking but I do expect him to go well.

McIntyre has excellent course form albeit it just from two events in the books. He might be just 40/1 in the market and I had to think this one over a bit before pulling the trigger but his 3rd & 8th here are eye catching whilst the Aussie should be setting higher goals this year following a win at Mount Juliet last summer and a PGA Tour win last October in Bermuda. Not to mention he was victorious here two years ago following 7th on debut and he defended quite well when finishing T-25 in '21. He has shaken off the dust already in January when playing in Hawaii at the TOC so he should be ready to go and @ 50/1 he is decent value. 

The Frenchman could be one of those mercurial players but on a course where big hitters and ball strikers will or should do well, he may just click. A T-10 last year suggests he does like the track and given his two DPT wins to date have come in Qatar & Dubai, he may be a player that just wants to play well in this part of the world. 100/1 - 8 places doesn't look right

Higgo is a fascinating runner for me here this week. Like Rozner,  90/1 (8) & 100 (7 places) seems wrong to me and I can't leave them out. Two left handers on my staking plan may also seem wrong but Higgo returns to this part of the world having played on the PGA Tour of late. As with Herbert, Higgo too has tasted PGA Tour victory and will relish a return to this tour to execute a "smash n grab" if he can. 

Regular blog readers will know I'm happy to chance Olesen at the prices whilst he attempts to climb back up the rankings and the Dubai Desert Classic has been good to him over the years as well, with 4 TOP-8 finishes in his last 7 visits. The 125/1 - 7 places is too tempting to pass on. 

Selections
1 pt e/w L. Canter @ 60/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w A. Arnaus @ 60/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w R. McIntyre @ 40/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w L. Herbert @ 50/1 - 7 places 
0.75 pt e/w A. Rozner @ 100/1 - 8 places
0.75 pt e/w G. Higgo @ 90/1 - 8 places
0.75 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 125/1 - 7 places

Abu Dhabi Championship 2022 - Yas Links, Yas Island UAE

 The DP Tour finally gets going in 2022 following the aborted South African Open in December. The SA Open did however proceed as a Sunshine Tour only event which Daniel Van Tonder duly won. So, with just the Joburg Open,which saw many UK&I players withdraw after day-1 due to the OMICRON outbreak in the books, the Abu Dhabi Championship is met with great enthusiasm and excitement this week boosted with the 2021 Race to Dubai Champion and current Open Champion, Collin Morikawa headlining. Rory McIlroy & Victor Hovland also tee it up and Adam Scott makes a surprise appearance too.

Given this is the first event for the vast majority of the field, it is hard to overlook those that have played in Hawaii recently and brushed off any dust and that points towards the market leaders. However, this event is renowned for producing some shock storylines over the years but as the tournament moves from Abu Dhabi GC to Yas Links, perhaps that "voodoo" will be lifted. With 8 places on offer, I'm chancing some value plays in the hope that one or two can hit the placings. I do expect the three market leaders to contest this and if they shouldn't prevail there is always Shane Lowry, Tyrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood and the aforementioned Adam Scott in behind to take up the mantle!

I'm going to give another chances to some recent selections this week and in my research I noted two players that I actually backed for this tournament last year who I'm keen to chance again. Thorbjorn Olesen will tee it up having put all his personal problems behind him in the courts last December and he may just relish a renewed approach at the beginning of a season where he looks to establish himself once again as a top player on this tour. Whilst he did withdraw just before the off twelve months ago, I'm happy to take the same view that a coastal course with some wind will be to his liking and can't pass on the 100/1 - 8 places on offer.

I sided with Thomas Pieters here and at the Saudi International last year to no avail although he posted a TOP10 in Riyadh. He subsequently went on to post 11 TOP20s in his 19 starts thereafter, winning the Portugal Masters last November in the process. Fatherhood appears to be suiting the Belgian well and the hope here is that he can kick start another successful season from the get-go here @ 40/1 - 8 places

Minwoo Lee, I put up for the BMW international last June and I'm ready to side with him here again, just @35/1 - 8 places. He won 2 starts after the BMW and arrives in top form this week having posted a T-4th last week in Australia on the back of a 16th at the DP World Tour Championship in December, 4th in Dubai, 8th in Portugal and a runners up placing behind Matty Fitzpatrick at Valderrama. That's phenomenal form and that price is just about fair for another bold showing this week given he's dusted off the Christmas downtime with a solid performance last week.

I can't leave Guido Migliozzi out here at a links track. Bolstered by excellent Middle East form as well, the Italian reached dizzy heights last June when challenging at the US Open when finishing 4th and he too should be well suited to Yas Links. He's probably the best value for me in the field this week and that he plays alongside Min Woo Lee & Robert MacIntyre for the first two days can be seen as positive as this group looks to be a strong one and I'm hoping they can feed off each other. 125/1 - 8 places is far too big....I'd have taken 66s anyway.

Finally, Alexander Bjork was kind to me last year and I' very happy to see 80/1 - 8 places for a player that pushed Collin Morikawa in Dubai last December when on @ 100s. Laurie Canter, Nino Bertasio & Marcus Armitage caught my eye for this as too did Victor Perez, Maverick Antcliff & Francesco Laporta. In the end I finalized on Francesco Laporta to complete my staking plan and reluctantly omitted Canter at 50s, as deemed too short.

Selections

1 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 100/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w G. Migliozzi @ 125/1 - 8 places
1.5 pts e/w T. Pieters @ 40/1 - 8 places
1.5 pts e/w M. Lee @ 35/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Bjork @ 80/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w F. Laporta @ 125/1 - 8 places

Sony Open 2022 - Waialae CC,Hawaii

 Let's hope for some wind this week in Hawaii as the PGA Tour hops over to another island in Hawaii for the Sony Open. Whilst I don't normally enjoy the birdie-fests that the tour throws up from time to time, I did enjoy watching the golf last week at Kapalua as the low scoring has certainly whetted the appetite for the year ahead. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas & Collin Morikawa look good to set the pace for the others to keep up with.

Talor Gooch leads my staking plan this week following a decent performance last week at the TOC. Gooch has kicked 2022 off more or less where he left 2021, and Waialae CC is a course that will suit his accuracy game from T2G. Gooch gives us some value @30/1 - 8 places given Bryson deChambeau has withdrawn . I had him @33s with BDC, so I'm more than happy to get onboard here especially as the RSM Classic has a strong correlation with this course. Gooch won the RSM Classic in the fall and was also 11th at El Chameleon GC for the World Wide Technology Championship which also, if not, has more correlation with Waialae. Despite his last 3 visits here yielding only one paycheck (a lowly 63rd), Gooch is a much improved player and can contend.

Cameron Young is a player I want to follow with interest this year and although I'm unsure if Waialae will suit, I can't ignore his TOP-30 at Sea Island following his 2nd place finish at the Sanderson's Farm at Jackson CC and from those outings he does look like a player that could be a regular on the leaderboards and with 200/1 - 8 places think he's worth including.

Si Woo Kim tees it up here ahead of defending The American Express next week. We have seen many times that a player can raise his game a week or two ahead of a tournament where they have performed or won at in previous years and it's encouraging to see the South Korean hit form of late, posting 3 TOP-20s in his 6 starts this season including a T-10 at Jackson CC. It's even more encouraging to see him available @ 50/1 - 8 places. He's the same price as course specialist Charles Howell III but I do prefer him over the 42 year old who has only won 3 times on tour to date, although the last win came in 2018 at the RSM Classic, a correlated event for this one. 

I was initially keen on Marc Leishman,Brian Harman, Abraham Ancer, Kevin Kisner & Corey Conners but concluded there wasn't much value there so I finalized my staking plan with Englisham, Aaron Rai @ 80/1 - 8 places and Max McGreevy @ 175/1 - 8 places. Rai is in form as he embarks on a PGA Tour career having posted posted a T-16 at RSM Classic, T-19 at Houston, T15 at WWT in his last three starts, which highlight performances at both El Chameleon & Sea Island. Now ranked 100 in the OWGR, 2022 goals & targets are the incentive to kick on and make the lineups at the WGCs and Majors. He'll make his debut here so thats a concern but the price is good for me on the back of recent form and ideal game for Waialae! Max as per previous previews is well capable of a shock result on tour in his rookie season and has already posted 2 TOP20s this season. My namesake obviously is a personal interest but at the prices currently being posted, I'm more than happy to have him included in the blogs P&L this year.

Selections

1.5 pts e/w Talor Gooch @ 30/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w Si Woo Kim @ 50/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w Aaron Rai @ 80/1 - 8 places

.50 pts e/w Cameron Young @ 200/1 - 8 places

.75 pts e/w Max McGreevy @ 175/1 - 8 places

Tournament of Champions 2022 - Plantation Course, Kapalua, Hawaii

 A strong field tees it up this week for the TOC in Hawaii and I'm dipping the toes in on the 2022 curtain raiser with the favourite, JT and Erik Van Rooyen.

JT has twice been a winner here and he'll look to get out of the blocks early and follow up on his 5th & 3rd place finishes at the end of 2021. A deserved favourite for the event he may be but without getting too hung up on whether he's value of not, he's a bet for me here.

Erik Van Rooyen could surprise this week @ 125/1 - 6 places. Recent winner of the Barracuda Championship, the South African makes his debut here and perhaps he has a lot of heavyweights to overcome at Kapalua this week but he's not out of his depth and could challenge a top-6 where his big hitting and a return to the form he showed last August/September not long after becoming a Dad, could see him pick up again. Having spent some family time over the Christmas period, EVR arrives in good form sporting a moustache that he may just keep a bit longer if he puts a good result on the board here.

Selections

3 pts e/w Justin Thomas @ 8/1 - 6 places

1 pt e/w Erik Van Rooyen @ 125/1 - 6 places