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Wednesday, 27 October 2010

Andalucia Masters 2010

Valderamma hosts the Andalucia Masters this week where the world will be watching to see if Martin Kaymer can make it 4 in a row and become the new World Number 1. A Runners-up spot would get him that tag either and bookies have him at 13/2 favourite to win. Readers of this blog will know that I have tipped him in those last 3 events also but 13/2 is a bit too short for me. I do think he will be up there but the value bet is being sought again this week. Graeme McDowell @ 15/1 is my main bet this week, he has the accuracy and the patience required on this course and has 2 top 10s at the Volvo Masters on the course in 2007 & 2008. He should be well rested and will be keen to close the gap on Kaymer for the R2D title. Stephen Gallacher is another who has played well lately without doing much on the leaderboards and he too will be keen to move a towards a top 15 placing in the R2D. Thomas Aiken despite not showing attacking form the weekends is also playing well and is taken again in good faith to produce the goods soon. Ross Fisher is also due a big title and he too has the all round package similar to Kaymer to excel here.

TIP 1: 1.5 pts e/w G.McDowell @ 15/1 (Betpack); GMac is rested and is keen to go for the last phase of the R2D and has the accuracy required for Valderamma. Will challenge.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 20/1 (Betpack) ; the Englishman is due a big title, won the Irish Open this year and has the all round game to be a Major Champion. Course will suit him

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w S.Gallacher @ 66/1 (Boylesports). The Scotsman is playing well without getting results but can put a good tournament together here, excels in the bigger events. Worth a punt at these odds.

TIP 4: .5 pts e/w T.Aiken @ 100/1 (Paddypower). Played well the past 2 weeks without attacking Sundays. Needs to do so but well worth a punt at 100/1, can be anything this guy and I have to "keep the faith".


TIP 2: 1 pt e/w

Tuesday, 19 October 2010

Castello Masters 2010

Action heads to Sergio Garcia's hometown Castellon this week for the 3rd running of the Castello Masters. El Nino is the favourite to win, he did so in 2008 and finished tied 4th last year so he has a chance in fairness and his appetite should be helped following the Ryder Cup victory earlier this month as he begins his "comeback". I wont be backing him, always have found it hard to back him, its too skinny to find out if the local knowledge will be the 15th club this week. Last week, I sidestepped Alexander Noren @ 33/1, I stated I wanted to assess his form and that if he was around 50/1 I would invest. After an opening 65, I was beginning to rue that decision but he did slip, before finishing in a tie for 36th. I think he will take heart from his opening 65 & closing 68 last week and he will also like the course this week where he tied for 3rd in 2008 and he does seem to go well in tournaments that produce a feast of birdies. His odds are half of the 50s I wanted last week but the course and consistent form suggests he is ready to win again.Soren Kjeldsen is also a player that has shown a bit of form at this course in 2008 with a tied 4th. he will like this shortish course this week and I do expect him to go well after a good showing last week in Portugal. I really would like to "keep the faith" with James Morrison but he is making too many bogeys lately and he cannot afford to do that this week. I relunctantly will oversee him in preference for Oliver Wilson, who was in very good form last week despite a poor Sunday round. He HAS to win soon and this could be the week when most eyes will be on Garcia and his compatriot, Jose Maria Olazabal.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 25/1 (Betpack): Form is consistent the past 3 tournaments and has a liking for the course. Out early on Thursday in the 2nd group and if he can get going on the birdies will be a contender.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w S.Kjeldsen @ 28/1 (Betpack): Showing signs of a return to form and this course is tailored made for him. Well worth backing at these odds.

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w O.Wilson @ 25/1 (Betpack): Despite 4th rd 73 last week, has been getting back to his best. Should do well in this class of field and finally get the maiden win

Tuesday, 12 October 2010

Portugal Masters 2010

BANK BALANCE AFTER DUNHILL LINKS +332.87

Martin Kaymer duly obliged for the 3rd time in a row last Sunday and for the 3rd time, he also boosted this blogs profits by 36 pts for that win at St Andrews. His win also completed the blog's 3rd winner in 4 events so lets hope the good run continues this week when the tour returns to Portugal and the Oceanico Victoria GC. Hard to pick a true favourite this week but I think the bookies have it right in Ross Fisher but for me the odds of 14/1 aren't value enough for me to be backing him. After a good opening round last week, he faded away before a good 4th rd moved him back up to a share of 11th. No doubt at all though that Ross will go well this week but I'm after a value bet for a player I think can win. That should mean I would or should be looking at one of my old favourites, Alexander Noren, who has returned to form lately- 9th in Paris and t-17th in Scotland. He should be a runner this week too on a course he shot 62 on last year and has finished in the top 20 the past 3 years. But again, best odds of 33/1 dont represent good value for me especially as his form since injury has yet to be confirmed, granted the last 2 outings are encouraging and he returns to a course he clearly likes but if he was closer to 50/1 then yes I would be on. Danny Willett, although shorter in the betting, has been knocking on the door and is due to win soon and does have a great chance this week. Simon Dyson is a player that thrives on confidence and his bold showing at St Andrews on Sunday will see him in the mood this week. My third selection this week is for a player whose form has dipped the past couple of months but has great form in this part of the world this year alone with a win, a playoff defeat and a 6th placing, Thats James Morrison !

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w S.Dyson @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes): Form player who will be buoyed by his showing last week. Quite capable in this lineup and he will fancy his chances. Partnered too with the in form John Parry for the first two days.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w D.Willett @ 22/1 (Paddypower); Getting closer each tournament and can carry on that trend again this week. Maiden win is not far away and the course will suit.

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w J.Morrison @ 150/1 (Boylesports); Won the Madeira Islands Masters this year and was beaten by Alvaro Quiros in a play-off for the Open de Espana, and was 6th at the Open de Andalucia in March suggesting this part of the world is a good place for him. He missed cut last week but had top 10 in Paris in outing before so game not in bad shape. Well worth a punt at these odds.

Wednesday, 6 October 2010

Dunhill Links 2010

Bank Balance after Vivendi Cup & Tour Championship + 302.87

After a pulsating Ryder Cup on Monday, the action returns to Scotland tomorrow for the Dunhill Links where 9 of the victorious European team will be taking part. That immediately asks the question if these 9 are capable of producing the goods so soon after the Monday euphoria not to mention the late night beers ! Lee Westwood heads the betting along with Rory McIlroy but I am discounting both of these due to Ryder Cup exploits (different reasons but related to the Ryder Cup). McIlroy simply loves links golf but I do believe he is on too much of a high from Monday and may not be focussed for this week. Westwood should be tired and his injury is still not 100% cured. Of the team though, I do fancy both Martin Kaymer & Ross Fisher, the quiet men who are playing very well at the moment despite their singles defeats, in fact, those defeats may just trigger the duo into a good performance this week and the odds of 16/1 & 22/1 are great value. I have looked hard for a good value bet for a 3rd selection and to be fair there is plenty of value this week for the pro-am event but I am gonna stick with an old favourite of mine following his good result last time out, Alexnader Noren.

TIP 1: 2 pts e/w Martin Kaymer @ 16/1 (paddypower): Will be disappointed to lose so heavily on Monday in his singles match, has a good record in this effort and will be hoping to increase his lead at the top of The Race to Dubai with a win. Goods odds for his calibre with question of market leaders ability to produce goods following Monday's exploits.

TIP 2: 2 pts e/w Ross Fisher @ 22/1 (betpack): Another who will be disappointed with his defeat on Monday but seems to be gelling nicely with his caddie. Game sems to be near his best again and one of the best putters on tour. All round package and is destined for bigger things and can cement his top 15 placing in the R2D this week if not win.

TIP 3: 2 pts TOP 10 finish A.Noren @ 9/1 (paddypower). Been a frustrating year for the Swede but played well last time out and this format will suit him this week. He will be aiming to have a good couple of months and hopefully a top 10 wis in his grasp this week.

Please note odds for Kaymer are 16/1 and not 20/1 as previously communicated.