ISPA Handa Championship 2024 - Taiheiyo Club, Gotemba Course, Gotemba, Japan

Selections

2 pts e/w Y. Paul @ 25/1 - 7 places
2 pts e/w E. Ferguson @ 35/1 - 8 places

The Masters 2024

Selections 

2 pts E/W J. Thomas @ 35/1 - 8 places

1 pt E/W T. Olesen @ 200/1 - 8 places

1 pts E/W C. Kirk @ 275/1 - 8 places

But.......c'mon Rory !! 

Valspar Championship 2024 - Copperhead GC, Palm Harbor, Florida

I found little value in this week's PGA event - well worth revisiting after the event to see how the shortlist fared and where my tissue varied to actual SP etc 

I'm going with 3 only here, really looking for a TOP10

Selections (Total outlay 6pts)

0.5 pts WIN M. McNealy   @ 65.00   / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 6.60

0.5 pts WIN K. Yu              @ 170.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 13.00

0.5 pts WIN A. Novak        @ 200.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 14.50

Singapore Classic 2024 - Laguna Golf Resort, Singapore

 We're up to 229 selections and counting after Xander Schauffele whimpered out at Sawgrass on Sunday last ! Think the potential Masters winner shortlist will be quite small in 3 weeks as there does not appear to be too many "fighters" on the PGA Tour at present who want to win a gold tournament. 

We move onto The Valspar Championship at Copperhead this week where the "snake pit" will sort out the winners from the also-rans whilst the DP Tour returns to Laguna Golf Resort in Singapore.

It may be a decent field in fairness but I'm again struggling to find real value, mostly due to my own tissue perhaps being way out of kilter but as alluded to a few weeks ago, the approach now is to back win on the exchange and take TOP-10/TOP-20s and see can we get some coin back into the bankroll.

Player	My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Shane Lowry	Current Form	10	10	10.3	13
Matthieu Pavon	Current Form	15	15	18.1	15
Rasmus Hojgaard	Multi	15	15	19.1	19
Tom McKibbin	Multi	19	21	23	23
Jordan Smith	Strategy	26	26	33	26
Thriston Lawrence	Strategy	23	26	31	23
Zander Lombard	Multi	31	31	41	29
Richard Mansell	Course	34	34	39	36
Ewen Ferguson	Current Form	31	34	45	31
Alejandro Del Rey	Course	34	41	39	51
Alex Fitzpatrick	Current Form	56	51	78	46
Paul Waring	Course	56	51	78	56
Frederic Lacroix	Current Form	61	61	74	51
Grant Forrest	Course	71	67	118	81
Jesper Svensson	Current Form	67	67	83	81
Ugo Coussaud	Current Form	71	81	98	67
Daniel Hillier	Fancy	81	81	127	67
Johannes Veerman	Current Form	101	101	176	91
Aaron Cockerill	Current Form	81	91	157	101
Guido Migliozzi	Current Form	101	111	176	81
Ockie Strydom	Course	126	126	196	67
Gavin Green	Current Form	111	101	176	81
Haotong Li	Current Form	91	126	176	101
Max McGreevy	Current Form	151	176	225	111

My 24-man shortlist

From the shortlist, there are players I just know don't have it to challenge come Sunday but they continue to be there or thereabouts and it's the bet that they can turn in some TOP-10s that keep me interested. The shortlist will need to have 20-30 players going forward if looking at the TOP-10/TOP-20 markets anyway. Tom McKibbin may prove to be a winner at some point but I don't see value at all in his price here when compared to market leaders Lowry, Casey, Pavon and indeed Rasmus Hogaard. However, Shane Lowry is yet to show his worth when a short priced favourite but he is in great form just 3 weeks out from Augusta and he's hard to ignore totally but at the price presents no opportunity here. Ugo Coussaud joined The Birdie Club non moving day list recently but I'm willing to give him one more go here. It really is beyond a joke now to see my selections nearly every week go from inside 2 or 3 shots off the lead after 36 holes to....no hope come Saturday evening....Coussaud owes me now! Not that Max McGreevy does however but he's a very interesting runner here. Max has plenty of experience overseas having spent a season on the PGA China Tour before earning his Korn Ferry Tour card and subsequently winning (then losing) his PGA Tour card. Not so sure Laguna will suit him off the tee but I have to play him anyway where he could surprise.

I was keen to reduce the numbers in y staking plans going forward but thought there was merit in taking Richard Mansell on @ 30/1 - 7 places as well as Frederic Lacroix @ 60/1 & Daniel Hillier @ 80/1 .

Missing out are Hojgaard,Migliozzi, Li & Ferguson who were seriously considered.

Selections

0.5 pts WIN U. Coussaud @ 110.00   / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 10.50

0.5 pts WIN M. McGreevy @ 300.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 18.00

0.5 pts WIN R. Mansell @ 38.00        / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @   4.80 

0.5 pts WIN F. Lacroix @ 60.00         / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @   6.80

0.5 pts WIN D. Hillier @ 130.00        / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @  10.00

The Players Championship 2024 - Sawgrass, Ponte Verdra Beach, Florida

 Selections

2 pts e/w X. Schauffele @ 22/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w T. Fleetwood @ 45/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w S. Burns @ 40/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w J. Day @ 55/1 - 8 places

0.5 pts e/w A. Novak @ 200/1 - 8 places

Astara Chile Classic 2024 (KFT) - Prince of Wales CC, Santiago, Chile

 Selections

1pt e/w R. Castillo @ 28/1 - 6 places

1 pt e/w M. McGreevy @ 33/1 - 6 places

Puerto Rico Open 2024 - Grand Reserve GC, Puerto Rico

 Selections

1 pt e/w R. Campos @ 55/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w N. Lashley @ 40/1 - 8 places

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 - Bay Hill, Florida

 Selections

1 pt e/w P. Cantlay @ 18/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w R.Fowler @ 100/1 - 7 places

Jonsson Workwear Open 2024 - Glendower GC, Edenvale, South Africa

 Selections

1 pt e/w U. Coussaud @ 55/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w K.Davidse @ 2001/ - 8 places

HSBC Womens World Championship 2024 - Sentosa Golf Club - Tanjong Course

Selections

1 pt e/w L. Maguire @ 45/1 - 6 places

.5 pt e/w C. Wannasaen @ 175/1 - 6 places

Cognizant Classic in Palm Beaches (The Honda Classic) 2024 - PGA National

 Selections

1 pt e/w B. Hossler @ 45/1 - 10 places

1 pt e/w R. Fowler @ 66/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w A. Bhatia @ 70/1 - 8 places

0.5 pts e/w C. Kim @ 150/1 - 8 places

SDC Championship 2024 - St. Francis Links, Eastern Cape, South Africa

 Selections

1 pt e/w U. Coussaud @ 60/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w J. Schaper @ 30/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w A. Rozner @ 25/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w R. Van Velzen @ 50/1 - 7 places

117 Argentina Open (KFT) - OLIVOS GOLF CLUB, Buenos Aires

 Selections

1 pt e/w Ricky Castillo @ 35/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w T. Widing @ 40/1 - 6 places

Honda LPGA Thailand 2024 - Siam Country Club (Pattaya Old Course) - Chon Buri, Thailand

 Selections

1 pt e/w C.Knight @ 33/1 - 6 places

1 pt e/w A. Furue @ 28/1 - 6 places

1 pt e/w L.Maguire @ 33/1 - 6 places

.5 pt e/w C. Wannasaen @125/1 - 6 places

Mexico Open 2024 - Vidanta Vallarta

 Selections

1 pt e/w T. Pendrith @ 28/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w V. Norrman @ 60/1 - 10 places 

1 pt e/w J. Bramlett @ 80/1 - 8 places

.5 pt e/w V.Perez @80/1 - 10 places

.5 pt e/w N.Xiong @ 1701/ - 10 places

Kenya Open 2024 - Muthaiga GC, Nairobi

Selections

1.5 pts E/W M. Kawamura @ 40/1 - 7 places

1 pt E/W N. Elvira @ 50/1 - 7 places

1 pt E/W J. Brun @ 66/1 - 7 places

1.5 pts E/W A. Cockerill @ 33/1 - 7 places

.5 pts E/W J. Wang @ 150/1 - 8 places 

***********************************************************************************

* Update Wednesday @ 17:30 (GMT)

Player	My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Thriston Lawrence	Course	15	17	15.7	17
Ewen Ferguson	Multi	17	19	16.2	21
Rikuya Hoshino	Current Form	19	17	15.7	23
Alex Fitzpatrick	Stats	23	23	29	26
Frederic Lacroix	Current Form	23	26	25	29
Jesper Svensson	Current Form	29	29	26	41
Aaron Cockerill	Multi	34	36	39	34
Connor Syme	Multi	36	36	35	36
John Catlin	Multi	36	41	35	46
Guido Migliozzi	Multi	41	46	41	41
Masahiro Kawamura	Multi	46	51	23	41
Shubhankar Sharma	Multi	61	61	64	91
Nacho Elvira	Multi	51	61	54	81
Ashun Wu	Course	61	67	59	81
Julien Brun	Course	67	61	64	61
Renato Paratore	Current Form	67	71	69	81
Santiago Tarrio	Course	91	91	88	111
Lukas Nemecz	Course	126	126	12.3	111
Jamie Donaldson	Multi	126	126	127	101
Marcus Kinhult	Price	101	111	98	91
Hurly Long	Course	151	151	17.2	111
JeungHun Wang	Multi	176	176	196	81
Joel Girrbach	Current Form	151	176	147	151
Craig Howie	Course	151	176	147	201

From my shortlist and final review I have had a niggly feeling about Connor Syme and noticed not just the Scotsman, but also Thriston Lawrence, Alex Fitzpatrick, Guido Migliozzi, John Catlin as well as Shubhankar Sharma all have relative course associated form that requires a second look. 

Lawrence was 2nd here 2 years ago to Ashun Wu (tying with our pick Cockerill & Hurly Long) but he also has showed up at Crans-sur-Sierre, winning the European Masters in 2022 and posting a T-10 at Valderrama last year, both courses with very relative form-lines to Muthaiga GC. 

Sharma has shown up at  Fanling (twice) & Wentworth, two courses that have seen winners of both this and the respective events.

Syme has shown up at Valderrama, Wentworth & Crans in the past couple of seasons and he's been backed by me only recently as well so perhaps jumpring ship this week is not a good idea. He was 3rd here in 2021 and hasn't missed a cut in his last 10 tournaments. He's now a best price @ 30/1 - 6 places / 28/1 - 7 places but perhaps a back bet on the exchange @ 42.00 / TOP-10 @ 5.30 is a better option.

Alex Fitzpatrick has followed his brother at Crans posting a T-5 there last year as well as posting some recent good form but Guido Migliozzi catches the eye with form at Crans & Valderrama whilst he won the Kenya Open at nearby Karen GC so should be hopeful of a good week here. He's best price now of 35/1 - 6 places / 30/1 - 8 places and also 42.00 / 5.40 on the exchange