Wednesday, 5 December 2018

South African Open 2019 - Randpark GC, Joburg

A shift in schedule sees the South African Open taking the shape of previous Joburg Opens where over 230 players will tee it up at Randpark GC in Johannesburg this week. As always with these co-sanctioned tournaments in South African , we can expect one of the home players to prevail and the market is lead by former Open Champion, Louis Oosthuizen. He's in good company though with fellow countrymen,  former US Masters champ, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Dean Burmester, Erik Van Rooyen and Justin Harding all claiming strong claims to their National Open title this week.

My shortlist this week settled on 12 players, of value in some way. Of the 12, 6 players showed considerable value, highlighted green in the below list. If I dutched the 6 players in the outright win market for accumulative odds of 10/1 (11.00), looking for a return of 275.00, I think we could trade successfully throughout the 4 days.

I want to get Gavin Moynihan into the staking plan though as the Dubliner is in form and the course should suit. A TOP-10 in Valderrama in October was followed up by a successful Q-School campaign and a further TOP-20 (T-11th) in Mauritius last week. At 6.00 for a TOP-20 here is about fair so chancing either a TOP-10 @ 15.00 or e/w for 8 places (paddypower) @ 101.00 or 7 places @ 151.00 (skybet, betway,betfred) could be worthwhile.  I'll chance the TOP-10 @ 15.00.

Instead of dutching the 6 players in the outright win market, I'll play the each-way markets as per staking plan below.

PlayerMy ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % BookValue (Y/N)
Branden GraceBranden Grace1314.8137.69%YES
Erik Van RooyenErik Van Rooyen3130293.45%YES
Justin HardingJustin Harding4142412.44%YES
Sean CrockerSean Crocker4148362.78%YES
George CoetzeeGeorge Coetzee5144313.23%YES
Darren FichardtDarren Fichardt5670342.94%YES
Richard SterneRichard Sterne6171412.44%YES
Scott VincentScott Vincent6776412.44%YES
Brandon StoneBrandon Stone6765412.44%YES
Bernd WiesbergerBernd Wiesberger6780412.44%YES
Gavin MoynihanGavin Moynihan1512381510.66%YES
Trevor Fisher JnrTrevor Fisher Jnr1761901510.66%YES
Table-1 SA Open Shortlist

Staking Plan

1.00 pt e/w G. Coetzee @ 51.00 (5 places)
1.00 pt e/w D. Fichardt @ 51.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w R. Sterne    @ 51.00 (7 places)
1.00 pt e/w S. Vincent  @ 67.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w B. Stone     @ 51.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w B. Wiesberger @ 67.00 (7 places)
3.00 pts TOP-10 G. Moynihan @ 15.00

Wednesday, 21 November 2018

Hong Kong Open 2018 - Fanling GC, HK

The new season kicks off for the Europeantour this week at the Fanling Golf Club for the Hong Kong Open. Surprisingly, the field is boosted by Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia,Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, not to mention Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjeergaard.

Fanling is not a big course and measures ~6800 yds, par-70. There a number of dog-legs on the tree-lined course and it will suit the short accurate hitters. That said, Scott Hend did succeed here in 2014, and others such as Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose have also prevailed. The latter two being of high calibre would suggest this is a course where you need to bring your A-game.

I couldn't see much value in the markets leaders and as I made my book to 100% , I has them as per the table below. Only Fitzy & Bello would interest me slightly but as the tournament has produced some decent price winners along the way, I've had a go at some that offers some value to me.

PlayerMy ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % Book
Patrick Reed7.57137.69%
Tommy Fleetwood7.57119.09%
Sergio Garcia8.58119.09%
Rafael Cabrera Bello1210156.67%
Matthew FitzpatrickMatthew Fitzpatrick1313175.88%
Lucas Bjerregaard1717342.94%

Table-1: Market Leaders

I settled on the following shortlist of 5 (Table-2), from an initial 7-man list. The 2 players dropped were Miyazato Yusaku & Rashid Khan but I'm taking both of them in the TOP-20 market @ 9.50 and 13.00 respectively.

My ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % BookValue (Y/N)T-10 OddsT-20 Odds
Andrew Johnston7167611.64%YES7.53.5
Alejandro Canizares8181671.49%YES84
Thongchai Jaidee2012011760.57%YES135.5
James Morrison2012011760.57%YES136
Siddikur Rahman3013012760.36%YES239

Table-2: 7-Man Shortlist

The remaining 5 players make up my staking plan for this week's Hong Kong Open

Date22/11/2018Total Outlay10.00
EventHong Kong OpenTotal Returns0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
1.00Andrew Johnston71.002.00E/W0.00
1.00Alejandro Canizares81.002.00E/W0.00
0.50Thongchai Jaidee201.001.00E/W0.00
0.50James Morrison201.001.00E/W0.00
0.30Siddikur Rahman301.000.60E/W0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetMarketResultReturns
2.00Miyazato Yusaku9.502.00TOP-200.00
1.40Rashid Khan13.001.40TOP-200.00