Just the selections from my shortlist for this week's PGA-FedEx Cup series tournament to be played at Caves Valley GC, Baltimore where by all accounts we may need to have a bomber on our staking plan. The opening few holes suggest early opportunities for birdies, so it could make for a very interesting trading event this week on betfair. It should be to Bryson's "cup a tae" here but it may just be as appealing to DJ & Rory. I'm backing both based on price and their ability to benefit off the tee and I also want to chance Jason Kokrak again and play Max Homa too. Sam Burns continues to impress me but I'll reluctantly pass at best price 50/1 given the value with the market leaders and for me having backed JT last week, I'll pass on him this week...yes he putted much better but I'm not convinced his driving is fully sorted. If we was 2-3 points bigger than yes but he's definitely on the radar should the exchange present an opportunity to get him onside.
A punters account of weekly golf bets and free tips on the European Tour (now DP World Tour) and the PGA with some LPGA & Challenge Tour selections. This blog is intended for readers over 18 years of age
Wednesday 25 August 2021
BMW Championship 2021 - Caves Valley Golf Club, Baltimore, Maryland
Tuesday 24 August 2021
European Masters 2021 , Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland
Always a well loved event by players and their better halves, the European Masters descends once again or should I say ascends to Crans Montana in Southern Switzerland. With no event last year, Sebastian Soderburg defends from 2019. It's a wide open event this week with plenty of value about and having pondered over my shortlist yesterday (23 players!) I have deduced that the best plan of attack is to get a few of these into the staking plan as possible, mixing some that seem to be coming into form and sticking with one or two that I've gone with recently.
As with Kevin Kisner, I once again have decided to stick with Jacques Kruyswijk again this week despite a lacklustre Sunday effort last week in Prague. His price has drifted out and simply put has to be backed again given his recent form....yes, perhaps he's not an out & out winner, but the form can't be ignored and at the price he could very well give us a run for our money and outplay those odds here.Perhaps he's drifted due to his only appearance here to date resulted in a MC when shooting 74-75, but he's a much improved player these days and is having a solid 2021. Given his 8 starts on the Europeantour in 2021, the Saffer has posted 2 T-5s from his 7 T-20s of which a further 3 of those were T-10s.Those results 8 results yielded finishes of 7-11-10-17-25-7-5-5 At 66/1 - 7 places he has to be kept on side again this week.
Brandon Stone flew out of the blocks in Prague last Sunday and looked all set for place money on his 72nd hole before he duly ruined my day but hitting water with his approach and dropping 2 shots to miss out.Not to be but he should take the positives from a very good week,having nabbed his 3rd T-20 in 12 starts. Like his compatriot though, his only visit here to date resulted in a MC also (75-73) so I'm looking for both players to start better this week for sure. He is must bet @ 100/1 - 7 places here for me
Keeping the South African team together for the assault this week and probably the best player of the South Africans to tee it up here is Justin Harding @ 33/1 - 6 places. I made Justin 25s here despite this being his debut at Crans, but Soderburg proved that it shouldn't be a deterrent. From his 19 starts on this tour in 2021, Harding has a win with the 9 T-20s posted, that win coming way back in the year in Kenya. If we do look at recent form though, he did lose a playoff to Nacho Elvira at Celtic Manor the week after posting a T-20 at The Open. Hes well rested, maybe too much having not played since the visit to Galgorm Castle at the end of July but he's a player I like a lot and Crans should be his cup of tea.
Marcus Armitage and Matthew Jordan were of big interest to me this week, but whether there is enough +ev in their prices I'm not sure. Armitage is best price 55/1 - 5 places as I write and wouldn't be a bet but should he drift to 66s I would. However, Jordan @ 80/1 - 8 places gets the nod, just! After an indifferent start to 2021, the Englishman has settled down a bit and started to post some decent results since the BMW International where he finished 17th and he took that form onto Mount Juliet to post 12th, before heading to Scotland for his third successive T-20. Two MCs in his next events was followed up by a T-10 at Fairmont before a T47th last time out The London GC. The price just about gives me some value for a player that may well find Crans suitable with the extra places available.
It's been a very quiet 2021 for Alexander Bjork although he is 11/14 with 4 T-10s posted. Last seen at The Renaissance Club where he posted an eye catching 63 in rd-3, Bjork has been honing up back in Sweden of late posting 66-64 to win a tournament at The Sand GC. He's a quality player, having only won once on tour todate which is a little surprising, but @ 75/1 - 5 places I'm having an interest in a player that really should be kicking on now into his 30s and he may be worth following over the next while.
Selections:
1 pt e/w J. Kruyswijk @ 66/1 - 7 places
0.75 pts e/w B. Stone @ 100/1 - 7 places
0.75 pts e/w M. Jordan @ 80/1 - 8n places
0.75 pts e/w A. Bjork @ 75/1 - 5 places
Tuesday 17 August 2021
Czech Masters 2021 - Albatross GC, Prague
Europeantour heads to the mainland this week where the Czech Masters will resume having not been played in 2020. It's a poor field in fairness, well in comparative to fields assembled of late but I do think it gives us some value to delve into. Whilst the blog did collect his 5th outright winner on the PGA Tour last week, I'm hoping we can find Europeantour winner No.2 for the year here this week.
I can't argue with Sam Horsfield heading the market here but do think there are others in just as good as form and some others who just might outplay their odds if they find the form that can see them prevail.
I went with Kevin Kisner for the 5th time this year last week and it proved to be the right call so I'm happy to chance Jacques Kruyswijk @ 28/1 - 6 places and well as last week's selection Vincent Norrman @ 28s also. The latter for all the reasons listed last week but perhaps keeping faith in that Albatross GC will be better suited to last week and I often think these new youngsters show more grit the week after having missed the cut to get more aggressive and make birdies. The Swede has shown the potential and can easily bounce back this week. I'm not getting the odds this time for the South African as I did in Austrian when placing and in England when taking 55s & 66s respectively but in this firld the 28/1 is decent value to me. 23rd here in 2019 and 7th in 2018 in his only 2 visits, Kruyswijk can boast 6 TOP-2s from his 7 starts on the Europeantour of which 4 are T-10s and 2 f those T-5s....decent form to bring here where has played well before and he can continue to represent the strong South African form to follow Erik Van Rooyen's win on the PGA tour the week before last.
Speaking of South Africans', 66/1 about Brandon Stone cannot be overlooked too lightly. He hasn't been inform for sure, but should he start nicely he can get into the zone and contend and the price will mean nothing for the player who is not afraid to win. He does have 3 TOP-20s from his 11 starts on tour this year although 4 missed cuts in his last 5 outings suggest that form is stale but Albatross GC and the strength of field is not one to be overly worried about. There's a bit of juice in 66s!
Selections
1.75 pts e/w Vincent Norrman @ 28/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w Brandon Stone @ 66/1 - 6 places
The Northern Trust 2021 - Liberty National GC, New Jersey
The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin in New Jersey on Thursday with The Northern Trust to be played for the third time at Liberty National GC. 124 players tee it up as Louis Oosthuizen takes a week off.
Before that though, just to make a brief mention of last week's event where we (the blog) saw our 45/1 selection, Kevin Kisner get the win in a 6-man playoff !! I don't normally mention the previous weeks event, good or bad, but it was incredible that he won given his 2nd shot on the first playoff hole, then the near miss with his chip, "knowing" that Scottie would make a 3...I still can't quite believe he missed to send the playoff back to the tee box before our man prevailed....it was Kiz' 6th playoff having lost the previous 5, of which we were also on when losing out to Robert Streb at the RSM Classic last November. Finally my & Kisner's luck in playoffs went the right way and brings the blogs playoff record to 5/19 since first doing the blog in 2009. Kevin Kisner's unlikely playoff win now puts the blog in a very healthy position for 2021 with the P&L now standing at +329.57 pts with the bit of luck going our way for a very welcome change.
Onto this week so, and it's going to be a fascinating tournament this week with market leader Jon Rahm returning to action after his latest covid enforced layoff. It's been a crazy few months for Rahmbo, in between becoming a father for the first time, doing more than his fair share of covid lockdowns and finding the time to win his first Major.... and nothing should shock us should he take the FedEx Cup to top it all off. We could really could get onside with any of the market leaders given they have all form of sorts to boost yet I'm gonna back JT here this week based on price and the hope that he can bring an improved putting game. The driving seemed to be better last time out at The St Jude but its the 25/1 - 8 places that entices me in. No other reason than price, JT can simply bring his A-game any time and the price is worth chancing.
I also think Jason Kokrak is worth backing @ 66/1 - 8 places. Jason goes in here this week looking for this third win of the season despite missing the cut last week at Sedgefield. He did afterall, win the CJ Cup the week after missing the cut at the Shriners Open last October and Liberty National should see him in positive mood as his 12th & 9th place finished here in 2019 & 2013 suggest. It's been a stellar season for the Buckeye and he may just have another big result under his sleeve.
Just the two for me here as I have shortlisted quite a few for Prague this week on the Europeantour
Selections
2 pt e/w Justin Thomas @ 25/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w Jason Kokrak @ 80/1 - 8 places
Wednesday 11 August 2021
Wyndham Championship 2021 - Sedgefield GC, North Carolina
Webb Simpson tees it up undoubtedly on his favourite course this week having posted some amazing results at Sedgefield over the years with a solitary win coming back as far as 2011, his first PGA Tour victory. No arguments to him heading the betting market this week but I wouldn't say there's any value in backing him to win again this week.
Webb Simpson @ Wyndham Championship
Whilst I keep this post very short due to my usual time constraints, I am keen to get on board a couple of players this week and hopefully continue the good PGA Tour form this year as I go looking for winner no.4
Sungjae Im is first into the staking plan @ 28/1 - 8 places. The South Korean finished 9th & 6th here the past 2 seasons and from his 30 starts on the PGA Tour this season, has posted 10 TOP-20s of which 4 have been T-10s, the last which came at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, just 4 starts ago at a course designed by this weeks designer, Donald Ross.
Kevin Kisner goes in also @ 45/1 - 8 places - these type of tracks do suit "Kis" and he can go better than his 3rd place finish here last year and his two other T-10s in his previous 3 starts at Sedgefield. Like Im, he put in a T-10 at Detroit the week after finishing 5th at The Travelers. This will be the 5th time this year I'll back Kisner whilst I was also on him when losing a playoff to Robert Streb last November at the RSM Classic so hopefully he can do the biz this time.
Selections
Cazoo Classic (English Open) 2021 - London GC
London Golf Club in Kent, England hosts the Cazoo Classic this week on the Europeantour, where Bernd Wiesberger emerges as a clear favourite to win. London GC being a Jack Nicklaus design should see the strong ball strikers come to the fore and the Austrian is a strong contender in finding greens and proximity to the hole. I have pondered backing him here but his price is gone somewhat having learned that he's been a popular pick amongst the more well known golf tipsters this week.
Instead, I'm happy to stick with players who popped up on my shortlist. However, one of them, Vincent Norrman who I was quite keen on, has also been backed to a price that I thought was far too short of my fair price of 33s (now 28s) and so it seems I may have been slow off the rank this week. Undeterred, I did want to have 2 players on my staking plan this week; Laurie Canter & Garrick Porteous. Both are now best price 35/1 & 60/1 respectively. On reflection before making my staking plan and updating this post, Canter may not represent value and neither would the Englishman.
Back to the drawing board I went and revised my tissue, I upped my "error ratio" to 33% and found I needed to go back to the head of the market again and re-evaluate if there was indeed value in Wiesberger & Norrman, and its the latter @ 28/1 I'm most drawn to. In fine form, the 23 year old Swede has posted 4no. TOP-20s in his 5 Europeantour starts of which one was a T-5 @ The BMW International, a further T-10 @ The Cazoo (Wales) Open. His first appearance was an amateur at the Scandinavian Masters where he finished 12th, so all in all life as a pro so far has been good and we have another Scandinavian to keep an eye on for the future. A big hitter averaging ~320yds off the tee, he'll tee it up this week and perhaps play in the same carefree manor that saw Ross Fisher & Christian Cevaer prevail when London GC last saw Europeantour action in 2008 & 2009. Whilst players on both this and the PGA Tour this week try make one last push for qualification for Ryder Cup and FedEx Cup Finals, the Swede could make a last minute move for R2D points and given the form and strength of the field here in Kent, this might be a great opportunity for the youngster to just go out and continue playing as well as he has and make inroads to securing a Europeantour card for next year
Following the review, I couldn't leave out Masahiro Kawamura @ 25s. Another who has been in fine form with solid results the past few weeks, The Japanese player will have goals to improve on his OWGR ranking of 150. Not an overly confident selection especially at the price but given his form he may just take to the course here this week and put in a result.
Kawamura recent form
Selections
1 pt e/w M. Kawamura @ 25/1 - 6 places (28s available with Bet365 - 5 places)