Irish Open 2021 - Mt. Juliet, Thomastown, Ireland

Thanks to yet another calendar change for the Irish Open this year I find myself not on holidays this time round and I might even get to watch some of it this year albeit on TV as restrictions are in place still in Ireland for attending sporting events.  We have had very good weather in Ireland the past 3 weeks so you can expect the first ever Jack Nicklaus design in Ireland to be in immaculate condition this week as Mt.Juliet hosts for the first time since the WGC came here back in 2004.  The forecast is also good for the remainder of this week, so with generous fairways to be hit, we can expect a birdie-fest. This is a parkland course so it means a break from the links on offer that most would associate with Irish Opens and its a course that Rory McIlroy should gobble up in pretty much the same way he did at the K Club when winning this title 5 years ago.

It's a decent field too this week, just two weeks out from the long awaited Open, where it's defending champion, Shane Lowry will look for a solid week ahead of his defense and take the opportunity to catch up with family & friends. I fully expect Shano to contend well here this week and he & Rory are deserving market leaders.

The 11/2 about Rory McIlroy may not be everyone's cup of tea and it's certainly a price I would normally pass on, but Mt Juliet is just a course I think sets up perfectly for him and if should the Ulsterman start well, I can see him pressing the pedal in search of a 2nd Irish Open title. To be brutally honest, if he does start well, I cannot see much in the way of a challenge and therefore is a win only bet for me this week.

Of the challengers and those of value, I had shortlisted Shano along with Ryan Fox, Justin Harding, Adri Arnaus,Jason Scrivener, Masahiro Kawamura, Calum Hill and Wilco Nienaber, Christian Bezuidenhout,Thorbjorn Olesen and Mike Lorenzo-Vera. Despite Rory,Shane & Padraig winning the Irish Open in "recent" times, the home players haven't really fared well at their National Open so I'm happy to leave recent tour winner and in-from Jonathan Caldwell out. Olesen was of interest given he has decent form on Irish soil and I can't pass up on him @ 60/1 - 10 places. Form hasn't been great recently but the price probably allows for that.

Tournament Form * Mt Juliet not used since 2004
2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009
-	15	6	48	10	mc	-	-	18	15	-	-

Thorbjorn Olesen @ The Irish Open

I have backed Justin Harding a couple of times recently and despite posting 6 TOP-20s from his 14 starts in 2021 as per table below, he can be backed @ 50/1 - 10 places. Aussie, Scrivener I have tried to catch once or twice before and yet to capitalise, but he could take to Mt.Juliet and as highlighted by datagolf.com, Jason is trending perfectly ahead of the event and same can be said with a number on my shortlist as showing up on the trend list...e.g. Fox, Hill, & Kawamura. I'm backing the Aussie to challenge in the Marble County @ 45/1 - 8 places.

Irish Open Form														EURO Season Stats
My Shortlist	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011	2010	2009		Season Starts	Season WINS	Season T-10s	Season T-20s
Christiaan BEZUIDENHOUT	-	mc	19	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		7	0	0	1
Thorbjorn OLESEN	-	15	6	48	10	mc	-	-	18	15	-	-		4	0	1	1
Ryan FOX	mc	mc	2	4	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		7	0	1	4
Justin HARDING	11	mc	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		14	1	2	6
Adri ARNAUS	23	15	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		11	0	3	4
Jason SCRIVENER	25	mc	mc	mc	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		9	0	3	3
Masahiro KAWAMURA	14	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		15	0	1	3
Calum HILL	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		12	0	4	6
Wilco NIENABER	48	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-		8	0	0	0
Mike LORENZO-VERA	-	9	mc	-	mc	mc	-	-	-	-	-	20		9	0	0	0

Selections

5 pts WIN R.McIlroy @ 11/2
1 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 60/1 - 10 places
1 pt e/w J. Scrivener @ 45/1 - 8 places

Travelers Championship 2021 - TPC River Highlands, Connecticut

Just two selections for me on the PGA Tour this week where a birdie-fest will ensue following last week's tough test at Torrey Pines.

Bubba Watson goes searching for his 3rd title here and I think he's worth backing to do so @45/1. Bubba is in decent enough form to suggest he might be keen this week. 

My second selection is Lanto Griffin @100/1 - 8 places. Lanto has shown glimpses of late to suggest a real good week isn't far away and River Highlands may present an opportunity for him. 

Selections

1.50 pts e/w B. Watson @ 45/1 - 8 places

0.50 pts e/w L. Griffin @ 100/1 - 8 places 

BMW International 2021 - Golfclub München Eichenried, Munich, Germany

 Back to the run of the mill stuff this week and the Europeantour sees a decent field assembling in Munich where last week's US Open players make the rare trip over for a rare "run of the mill" event. Victor Hovland heads the betting market and despite his eye injury in the sand of Torrey Pines he most certainly is the player to beat here. How much his exertions in San Diego will affect his performance this week remains to be seen, but we can rightly assume he's fit to play, but wouldn't be a confident win bet for me with his intentions for the week unclear. His price cements the decision to look down further down the field.

Not only do we see players teeing it having competed at the US Open last week but we also have home players returning from the US having being plying their trade on the Korn Ferry Tour & Champions Tour in Stephan Jaeger & Alex Cejka and its these two players that are of real interest here in Munich. A trip home during the Euros may be a welcome visit for both but I don't believe they will treat purely as a jolly as both are recent winners and should be keen to put in a challenge here. The latter was raised in Munich so the return visit during these times will be a welcomed one for him and his family. Cekja may be 50 years of age but he's playing well and won't be daunted by the young guns and his price is very tempting to see how he does fare. Cejka won the Seniors PGA Championship a couple of weeks ago having won his first Seniors title in the US earlier that month at the Regions Tradition. Those wins will bring confidence and whilst he is up against it here a bit, there's no reason why he can't challenge and grab a high finish at 150/1 - 7 places. 

Likewise, Jaeger too hails from Munich and his visit home comes on the back of some excellent performances lately on the Korn Ferry Tour where he is 8/11 this season with a win at The Emerald Classic and two runners up placings last month at the Knoxville Open (he also won this back in 2018) & the Rex Hospital Open in which he lost a playoff to Mito Pereira, who backed the win up with another the following week. It's a very rare appearance on the Europeantour, but his price is value given he is competing well and looks destined for the PGA next season. 50/1 - 7 places is too big for this.

I could run amok this week in the hope that Hovland & Garcia don't dominate proceedings,not to mention Louis Oosthuizen too, but I have a further 4 players showing up for me as value picks which I can't leave unbacked. 

We all know of John Catlin's ability on this tour and having tasted the experience of a Major this year, we can expect the American to be chomping at the bit to add to his haul very soon. As with Jaeger, Catlin is value for me @ 50/1 - 7 places 

Shaun Norris is of real interest here. The South African has shown solid form on the Asia & Japan tours and can be a contender here on the European tour too. He too is a recent winner having won the Partner PRO-AM in Japan last month in a playoff. Notwithstanding he has missed the cut on both occasions since, he is well capable of a good week given he is strong in the putting department and fairly consistent in finding greens and if accuracy off the tee is not critical at Golfclub Munchen Eichenried as previously seen,then the course should be suitable for his game. I certainly think there is a bit of juice in the 100/1 - 7 places.

Brandon Stone is a winner, can go in at any time and perhaps having seen his compatriots play so well at Torrey Pines he may be motivated to up his game of late. Brandon won on the Sunshine Tour back in April before missing the cut at Kiawah Island, but he can feel at home on the European tour where he has 3 wins to his name, one of which was a Rolex Series in Scotland. Another GIR performer, the Joburg native needs to warm up his putter but I'll chance him @ 80/1 - 7 places too.

Finally, Min Woo Lee was put up here earlier this season on this blog and duly missed the cut but recent form suggests an improvement is imminent. mc-52-21-28 in last 4 starts may not be altogether inspiring but the price accounts for that @150/1 - 7 places. The Australian could be deemed mercurial, as demonstrated by his TOP-30 at the WGC Workday back in February and I just thought the price was too good to leave on the table.

Selections

1.00  pt  e/w S. Jaeger @ 50/1 - 7 places
0.50 pts e/w A. Cejka @ 150/1 - 7 places

1.00 pt   e/w J. Catlin @ 50/1 - 7 places

0.50 pts e/w S.Norris @ 100/1 - 7 places

0.75 pts e/w B. Stone @ 80/1 - 7 places 

0.50 pts e/w M-W Lee @ 150/1 - 7 places

US Open 2021 - Torrey Pines, San Diego, California

 The US Open returns to Torrey Pines this week having last hosted the US Open in 2008 when Tiger Woods made that putt at his 72nd hole to force a playoff with Rocco Mediate the following day.

The municipal course in play this week is the South Course and will be expected to play a lot harder than when the PGA Tour visits each year for the Farmers Championship with the course likely to play hard and fast with the rough much tougher than the February date for the Farmers Insurance. Still, with any course, it does pay to have the experience and form to play well, afterall its still the same venue. That should give Tony Finau some confidence given his Torrey Pines credentials, as well as market leader Jon Rahm who so cruelly was denied a W at Jack's Place 2 weeks ago. Its the Spaniard who I was most keen on this week but having mulled over his price (10/1) since Monday have opted out regrettably. I have no doubt he'll win a  Major either this year or next and wouldn't be surprised at all to see it this week.

Rahm's price has a big influence on my selections this week. Firstly, he was my original go-to bet but as mentioned, the price has dictated more so for this one than other Majors.....yes, he is in form but he's not alone and his clear favouritism to win this week has pushed out the prices of other Major Winners who have already won this season too. Whilst "Rahmbo" has not won this season......yet, he has produced 8 T-10s from his 15 starts (stat skewed due to the wd at The Memorial).

Xander Schauffele is of interest here this week, as he has shown, like Finau a real liking for Torrey Pines. Perhaps having grown up in San Diego has something to do with it, but the local boy has some solid form this season (6 T-10s from 14 starts) as well as Major form the past 5 years: 16 starts yielding 8 T-10s of which 5 were T-5s. As for his US Open form ?  4 starts - 4 TOP-10s of which his worst result was T6th at Shinnecock in 2018. Runner up to Patrick Reed at the FIO in February this year, "X" has shown his liking for Torrey having posted further 5th -3rd -6th the 3 previous years. He arrives in form (11-mc-14-3) and is well worth a punt @ 20/1 - (note: at time of posting Xander's odds have come in and I wouldn't back him less than 20/1 with 8 places)

Patrick Reed, winner here in February holds some value @ 30/1 - 8 places given not only that win this year but his TP form in recent years. Reed is a competitor, will relish the stiff challenge ahead and his short game is perfect for the test ahead. 5th at Muirfield Village, 17th at Kiawah and 6th at Quail Hollow shows he's in decent nick and his price from the top of the market tempts me in.

I wasn't overly keen on Justin Thomas this week given his tee to green of late. But having made the decision to leave Jon Rahm out, it means I need to consider JT @ 25/1 - 8 places (note: at time of posting JT has come into 20/1 which I would still consider- I had JT priced up @ 16s) JT's major form the past couple of years is not encouraging though and perhaps teeing it up here this week with little expectation, or to say, maybe not as confident as in previous Majors, JT may just click here and the price very ,much like Rory at Quail Hollow last month, could look a gift come Sunday. JT did win at Sawgrass earlier this year when considered to find his form out of the blue and despite not really "kicking-on" since, JT is class, can use his approach play to good effect and for me, if he drives it better than he has been this week, will contend. It's now 4 years since his only Major win, a more relaxed JT these days may prove beneficial but his failure at Augusta when looming on Saturday before the weather disruption is of concern. JT's Major career to date does not befit his prowess on the game so its a key week for him this week I feel. Price only brings me in.

Gary Woodland, winner of the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach is added as one of my "outsiders" along with Sam Burns @ 80/1 & 100/1 respectively. Woodland has been in sneaky simmering form of late ; 14th at The Charles Schwab, 5th at Wells Fargo, 6th at Texas. Whilst his form is never consistent and his wins (5) have come out of the blue sort of, the 2019 champ can look forward to enjoying the week ahead and bring decent form that could see another challenge unfold. Burns is on the up on tour....the 24 year old won the recent Valspar Championship and almost followed up at the Byron Nelson. He finished 3rd at Riviera and with 2 TOP-20s at Torrey Pines to date, can be a decent interest at triple figures

Selections

1.5 pts e/w P. Reed @ 30/1 - 8 places

2 pts e/w J. Thomas @ 20/1 - 8 places

0.75 pts e/w G. Woodland @ 80/1 - 8 places

0.75 pts e/w S. Burns @ 100/1 - 8 places

*not counting for blog P&L - I have backed Xander @ 20/1

European Open 2021 - Green Eagle GC, Hamburg

 Just a 54 hole tournament this week on the Europeantour and a Saturday to Monday event as well. Strict German covid-19 protocols means the Tour has had to make last minute preparations to accommodate the event, a credit to all involved in making it happen.

Paul Casey and Abraham Ancer head the market but its last week's winner, Bernd Wiesberger and Austrian Matthias Schwab that are of more interest to me here with the latter taken to outplay his odds. Schwab is yet to win on tour but its not from a lack of trying. 5 TOP10s from his 10 starts this year to go along with his strong 2019 form that saw him rise to 79 in the world before a disjointed 2020 stopped the progress, the 26 year old arrives in Hamburg this week knowing he went very close when finishing just a solitary shot behind the winner, Paul Casey, the last time we were here in 2019. The same year he lost out in a 6-man playoff having been the last contender to winner Tyrell Hatton at the 4th extra hole. As he rounds into some consistent form again in 2021 having posted 4 TOP-10s in his last 6 tournaments, the elusive first time win can't be far away and @ 20/1 - 6 places he's value relative to the field for me

Made In Himmerland	PGA Champ	British Masters	Canary Islands	Tenerife	Gran Canaria	Austrian Open	The Masters	Savannah Classic
8	-	11	-	33	8	7	-	7

Nino Bertasio completes my staking plan at long odds;150/1 - 6 places. The Italian has shown some signs that a good week is not too far way either, with 3 T_20s from his 11 starts, he can be chanced at the odds here too with the hope that his strong SG:APR stats come to the fore. With just 54 holes to be played this week, a shock result could materialize and the Italian is the pick to do so

Selections

2.5 pts e/w M. Schwab @ 20/1 - 6 places
0.5 pts e/w N. Bertasio @ 150/1 - 6 places