Wednesday, 12 November 2014

Turkish Airlines Open 2014

The Penultimate event of the Final Series takes place in Turkey this week where we have a number of absentees! Rory has other things on his mind before payday next week in Dubai and we are also without Justin Rose and Graeme McDowell who went very close in China last Sunday. That leaves Stenson, Garcia and Kaymer as the market leaders with defending champion, Victor Dubuisson close on their heels.Perhaps the Swede can finally get a win on tour this year and having celebrated the birth of his third child a fortnight ago he could be nice and relaxed for this course where we will have 5 par5s over the 7200 yards.

Its the par 5s that I am focussing on here mainly and to play these well over the 4 days will be key as a low score could be expected despite a toughening up of the course as reported from twelve months ago. Tommy Fleetwood is always a player I like to have onside where scoring is key on par 5s so @ 50/1 he is a fair price for me here. So too is Pablo Larrazabal @ 80/1 who had a fine weekend in China last week to eventually grab a TOP15 despite an opening 75 on Day 1. That 137 total was the lowest of the field for the weekend and it augurs well for his confidence here this week. Already a winner on tour this season in Abu Dhabi when he edged out McIlroy and Mickelson by a shot with a closing 67, the Spaniard is a decent bet this week and hopefully he can avoid losing his shirt this week if he avoids an over par round! At 7/1 with Boyles for a TOP10 he's a definite bet for me here.

Marc Warren is over a recent injury and he too could be poised to go low this week. No missed cuts in his last eight starts since his win in Denmark, which have included four TOP25s so with injury now behind him he might just be ready for a good showing for this and next weeks finale in Dubai and at 66/1 is worth a nibble. So too is the 11/2 (6.50) for a TOP10.

Lastly, Thomas Aiken has shown some signs of a return to form of late and with the South African "season" imminent I expect his game to start improving again. Consistent over GIR rankings means he could be in with a shout this week having produced a 15th placing in 2013. Available to back tonight @ 190.00 on Betfair for the win and @ 9/1 for TOP10, the Joburger completes my staking plan for this week.

Staking Plan (10 Pts)

0.75 pts WIN T.Fleetwood @ 50/1
0.75 pts WIN P.Larrazabal @ 80/1
0.75 pts WIN M.Warren @ 66/1
0.25 pts WIN T.Aiken @ 189/1


2.5 pts TOP10 T.Fleetwood @ 9/2
1.75 pts TOP10 P.Larrazabal @ 7/1
1.75 pts TOP10 M.Warren @ 11/2
1.5 pts TOP10 T.Aiken @ 9/1