Wednesday, 28 July 2010

Irish Open 2010

Bank Balance after Scandanavian Masters + 115.12

The Irish Open returns to Killarney this week but the curse of the Irish Open regarding weather seems to be still about as strong winds are forecasted the weekend, although they may not actually get as bad as some are predicting. The tree lined course will suit long straight hitters and that should suit favourite, Rory McIlroy, but should the wind get up, the Hollywood man may struggle- his tournament may revolve around his opening round and give him an early chance to see what he has learnt from St Andrews. 8/1 for Rory is too short and represents no value for a player capable of winning every week but has not shown weekly consistentency. Irish golfers have won their home Open twice in the past 3 years (Harrington & Lowry) but other than these the home success has been scarce over the years. Harrington may represent the best value of the Irish lads @ 18/, but I beleive Ross fisher @ 20/1 has the game to come out on top this week as he is flirting with his top game at present and is ready to produce the goods. His long straight hitting and excellent putting can see him take the title. At 20/1 and Paddypower paying 6 places, this is the value bet this week.
I am also sticking with James Morrison who agonizingly came close to a place last week for the blog with a great last round of 67. His putting wasn't great last week in the opening rounds but if he finds hi touch this week he can get up the leaderboard and again with 6 places on offer has to be backed again @ 80/1.
The Irish Open has thrown up some strange winners over the past 10 years or so, so rather than look for another outside bet, I have decided to chance a bet on Thomas Aiken being the first rd leader @ 90/1 (5 places with Betpack). He is out in the first group and has a tendency to either go low in opening rounds only to produce average round in the 2nd. If he starts well this is a value bet and worth chancing.

Irish Open Selections:

1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 20/1 Paddypower
1 pt e/w J.Morrison @ 80/1 Paddypower
1 pt e/w 1st Rd leader T.Aiken @ 90/1 Betpack

Wednesday, 21 July 2010

Scandanavian Masters 2010

Bank Balance after British Open + 121.12

Great performance from Louis Oosthuisen last week winning The Open, Louis often selected by this blog, but unfortunately looked over last week. That's the way it goes but 2 of the 4 selections finished in the top 7 although Martin Kaymers frustrating finish cost the blog a few pts when he finished in a tie for 7th with 3 others.
This week the action comes from Bro Hof Slott Golf Club near Stockholm in Sweden. There is no course form as it only opened in late 2007 but interestingly it is a venue selected by another of the blog's old "favourites", Alexander Noren for his Alex Camp later in the year suggesting he likes the place! This course is the 2nd longest course ever on the European Tour, is surrounded in water and the rough is meant to be tough so scoring should be difficult but should suit the big hitters(those that hit it straight though). As Noren has "knowledge" of the course and is in need of a good week, its 1 pt e/w @ 66/1 (Paddypower). Of the favourites, the two start American attractions should go well- Dustin Johnson & Rickie Fowler. The former hits further than anyone but his odds are just a bit too low to side with him this week. Fowler on the other hand had a good Open last week, amazingly his worse round was Thursdays, but his final rounds of 67-71-67 saw a top 15 placing and he will come on from that. Looking for his first win as a pro it could be this week @ 18/1 - 1 pt e/w (Betpack). My outside bet is for James Morrison, already a winner on tour this year and a beaten playoff runner up, he has gone off form a bit lately but is well rested now and could spring a surprise this week @ 150/1 (Paddypower).

Scandanavian Masters Selections:

1 pt e/w R.Fowler @ 18/1
1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 66/1
1 pt e/w J.Morrison @ 150/1

Tuesday, 13 July 2010

The Open 2010

Firstly, the blog was very unlucky not to land a 50/1 place last week when Shane Lowry finished 7th and just 1 shot off the place money. Backed at 200/1, his weak round was Friday's but having had a good score on Saturday he couldn't find just one more birdie to put a smile on my face although his level par round was a good effort in the conditions to be fair to him and only for a pair of 68s from Stephen Gallacher & Raphael Jacquelin (along with Johann Edfors,best of the days) I would have been in the money and rewarded for "keeping the faith". So, do I stick with the young man this week? 125/1 with Paddypower who are paying 1/4 odds for 7 places is very tempting. I was interested in an e/w bet on the top GB & Ireland market where I was informed that he could be got @ 66/1 but best price on offer at present is 45/1.With 2 of my tips to lift the claret jug in this market also, I have relunctantly left him out (4/1 for top 20 is too low).
The two top tips for me this week are in the shape of Justin Rose & Ross Fisher. The former is in excellent form and has good links form although did not play at St Andrews in 2000 nor 2005. He should be entering looking for his 4th win in a row but the "collapse" 2 tournaments ago may heed him well in staying patient & focussed come Sunday Major day. 25/1 is still ok value for the Englishman and I reckon he will certainly challenge. Ross Fisher (50/1 Paddypower) hasn't been at his very best this year, could have won at Turnberry last year, but his short game is in fine shape, and on a course where driving accuracy is not that of huge importance, that side of his game may serve him well. Retief Goosen, (50/1 Ladbrokes) who missed cut last week and I put it down to the weather, has not finished tournaments off well lately, which is a slight worry but his 9 top 15s in The Open is a huge plus for taking a punt this week. Despite 45/1 on offer at Paddypower paying 7 places, the better value is in the win part and Ladbrokes are paying 6 places. (Bound to finish 7th now !!).

As it is a Major I am taking another selection and going beyond my 5% of bankroll rule. This "rule" I have always applied come Majors but to my cost at the US Open I ignored that time round and anyone reading the blog on my US Open selections a few weeks ago will know all too well what happened here for a reminder. So the final selection is a punt on Europe's best not Lee Westwood, or McDowell or McIlroy(although I believe the 2 Northern Irishmen will challenge this week) but Dusseldorf's Martin Kaymer (40/1 Paddypower). Getting back to his best the past few weeks but not closing them out suggests he is keeping a win to the right moment (lets hope anyway). A top 10 finish at Pebble Beach also suggests he is well capable of challenging for a Major that he ineviteably will win some day and that day could be soon !

So what of Tiger Woods and his compatriots who have dominated the Open in recent years? St Andrews should play into their hands and Tiger himself is gunning for a hat-trick of St Andrews Opens.Normally I would say Tiger would win and this year his best two showings have been at Augusta & Pebble Beach which points to the fact that Tiger can excel at a Major despite all his "troubles". However, I am confident that this week won't be his either and this is based on the fact that too many players are playing so well at the moment. Europeans will be confident following Graeme McDowells victory last month and tiger wont have a chance to put his aura on the event. Phil Mickelson is not even being considered, has terrible Open record and didn't fancy the rain last week in Loch Lomond either. Ernie will go well but he may "try too hard" again this week, had his chance to win at Pebble Beach.Of the other contenders,Stricker has good Open form and comes in off the back of a win, Ryan Moore is playing well so is Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson even Heath Slocum has spent 3 weeks in Europe now might go ok but the selections are taken this week based on their home form and liking for links. I didn't mention Padraig Harrington.....he could win his 3rd jug in 5 years no problem at all...and it wouldn't surprise me, 25/1 a good price too....but I will stick with "my team for 2010"

Good luck !

British Open Selections

1 pt e/w J.Rose @ 25/1 (Paddypower 7 places)
1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 50/1 (Paddypower 7 places)
1 pt e/w R.Goosen @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes 6 places)
1 pt e/w M.Kaymer @ 40/1 (Paddypower 7 places)

Wednesday, 7 July 2010

Loch Lomond Scottish Open 2010

Bank Balance after Open de France + 117.32

A blank last week after a decent good spell but another strong field have assembled this week and the winner could come from anywhere! A week before the Open, its difficult to pick the winner and with weather forecast predicting some wind it would tend to point towards more of the established players. Mickelson starts as favourite just ahead of Els, who has won twice here but the prices are too short at 10s & 12s respectively. I tipped Retief Goosen recently and he put in good rounds again last week and is a fancy of mine for next week also, so I do expect him to challenge this weekend and he can be got at 25/1 with Boylesports.(paying 6 places)
Looking for the value, Oliver Wislon is still looking for his first win and this could be his week. Ever consistent he has the game for this course and at 60/1 (Betpack) he too is the selection list.

I have to take Shane lowry for the 3rd week running. He has been a bit unlucky with his scorecard in the last two weeks and was actually at -5 after 10 holes last Friday when he produced back to back double bogeys before recording a bogey at the last which meant he missed the cut by a shot. He can go well here as he is playing very well. 200/1 on offer means he cannot be left out.(Betpack)

Scottish Open Selections:

1 pt e/w R.Goosen @ 25/1
1 pt e/w O.Wilson @ 60/1
1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 200/1