Wednesday, 28 October 2020

Bermuda Championship 2020 - Port Royal GC, Bermuda

 I wasn't going to get really involved in the Bermuda Championship this week, but the more I look at Henrik Stenson's price, the more I feel inclined to have an interest. 

A links type-ish course with loads of wind forecasted the weekend, will try the patience of a saint and perhaps suit The Iceman and Ireland's Padraig Harrington (who makes a surprise trip). The Open Champions should have both the type of game needed here as well as the experience to stay patient and when looking at the market leaders I can't figure out the Swedes price @ 40/1 with 8 places abegging. Stenson sits outside the OWGR TOP-50, just, and he may see this week as an opportunity to gain some points, in his warm up for Augusta in a couple of weeks. If OWGR rankings are your thing then only defending champion, Brendon Todd at #41 ranks better, with Will Zalatoris  at #59 (Stenson #54). The KFT graduate may well indeed bring the better form of late but is he really a THIRD of Stenson's price ?

The price is too tempting to leave this event alone....I made him 25/1 -28/1 against this field where he wont need driver off the tee for most of his round and if he gets a fast enough start he may just be the one they all have to beat. His mid day tee time playing alongside another Open Champion, Stewart Cink and Pat Perez is favourable too.


2 pts WIN H. Stenson @ 46.00
2 pts E/W  H. Stenson @ 40/1 - 8 places

Tuesday, 27 October 2020

Cyprus Open 2020 - Aphrodites Hill, Paphos, Cyprus

 A new tournament and a new venue this week on the Europeantour as the Euro-Bubble heads for Cyprus. We have very little to go on in terms of course experience only that it will or should I say be wind affected but as nearly always in Cyprus, the weather looks to be excellent for the week ahead with pleasant high-20s forecasted. The course looks like it will yield a ton of birdies again this week and having seen a poorish field last week where we got a very unexpectant winner, I'm not going to dive in here, but keep it to a minimum after such a great week in California for the blog last week.

Nicolas Colsaerts @ 50.00 on the exchange is a bet for me here this week following his strong showing last week and the "Belgian Bomber" may find Cyprus not too dissimilar to Mauritius where he has been attached to Anahita GC there for some years now. Having won the Open de France this time last year too, autumn has been good to Nico over the years and he can ride the form he showed last week into another challenge at a resort that should be to his liking. He was 2nd behind McGowan in the SG:A and if he is dialled in in Paphos, he can ride a wave of confidence in a field he really should be competitive in. 


2 pts N. Colsaerts WIN @ 50.00

2 pts e/w N. Colsaerts e/w @ 40/1 - 7 places

Tuesday, 20 October 2020

Italian Open 2020 - Chervò Golf Club, San Vigilio di Pozzolengo, Brescia , Italy

 A new course hosts the Italian Open this week, stepping in as so many tournaments have had to do this year as a replacement to ensure schedule continuity. We don't have a Rolex Series status associated with the event this week but its not too bad a field teeing it up on the backdrop of Lake Garda.

From photos shared around if the course, it looks to be a birdie fest on the cards this week which will suit the longer hitters and those with a hot putter. 

I'm backing just one player this week, Marcus Armitage who has been in decent form of late posting 2 7th place finishes at last week's Scottish Championship & the UK Championship sandwiched with a 50th in Portugal & T23rd at the Irish Open. His lack off accuracy may not be an issue this week, time will tell but if he's striking it decent enough and makes his share on the greens he can outplay his odds of 60/1 - 6 places here. At 85.00 on the exchange he's worth a dabble for the much needed Win to ignite his career and bring some stability into his life that he's been working very hard to achieve.


1 pt WIN M. Armitage @ 85.00
1 pt  E/W M. Armitage @ 60/1 - 6 places

ZOZO Championship

 The ZOZO Championship will be hosted by Sherwood GC at the foot of the Santa Monica hills in California this week, deputizing for Narashina GC, Tokyo due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Hopefully this co-sanctioned Japan/PGA Tour event will return to Japan next year and for the next 4 years. With that in mind, we can discount "ZOZO form" and instead to look at recent events played at Sherwood CC, which the defending champion, Tiger Woods has particular success on winning numerous times at his invitational Hero Challenge event. 

We have a limited field this week too so we can fully expect top of the market to prevail. Course correlations seem evident with Muirfield (The Memorial) and RBC Heritage and that immediately points me to Patrick Cantlay @40.00 on the exchange (28/1 e/w general). Cantlay has decent form at both tracks (he won The Memorial last year following a 4th place finish the year pervious and finished 3rd & 7th on his last starts at The Heritage). Two TOP-10s his his last 9 starts is OK, but he should be happier here  Sherwood CC as too being back in his native state.

He's my only bet this week on the PGA Tour


1 pt win P. Cantlay @ 40.00

2 pts e/w P. Cantlay @ 28/1 - 7 places

Wednesday, 14 October 2020

CJ Cup 2020 - Shadow Creek, Nevada

 No time for a preview this week. No bets for me in Scotland ,just the CJ Cup of interest


2 pts WIN C. Morikawa @ 28.00
1 pt e/w B. Watson @ 60/1 - 7 places
0.5 e/w A. Long @ 150/1 - 7 places

Tuesday, 6 October 2020

Shriners Hospital for Children Open - TPC Summerlin, Las Vegas

 Collin Morikawa has a home game this week and I cant get my head around his price of 20/1 - 8 places for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open to be hosted yet again at TPC Summerlin, where a strong tee to green game is required as well as the ability to post a good few birdies. The new PGA Champion is a Las Vegas residence and we should note that local boys do tend to go well here.

Winner of the Workday Open before capturing his first major title at TPC Harding, Morikawa has also posted a T-20th at the BMW Championship and a 6th at The Tour Championship before starting the US Open in nightmare fashion last time out. Refreshed and sleeping in his own bed, should be to his advantage this week and he's a must bet for me here.

Joaquin Niemann has been to good to me of late and I also couldn't believe the 70s on offer for the Chilean here where that tee2green game should see him contend. TOP-30s  at the US Open (23rd) & The BMW Championship (28th) followed up his strong performance at Olympia Fields when finishing 3rd behind DJ & Rahm. Having risen to the TOP-50 in the world this year, better things are surely ahead for the 21 year old and he can go better than his 10th place finish at Summerlin two years ago @ 50/1 - 8 places


1.50 pts e/w C. Morikawa @ 18/1 - 8 places (* price dropped since draft preview above but still think price is fair)
1 pt e/w J. Niemann @ 50/1 - 8 places

BMW Championship 2020 - Wentworth GC, London

 The European flagship event is the BMW Championships, being held this week at Wentworth Golf Club near London. As per the "normal 2020", the event is staged much later in the year than usual, but provides us with the European's best lineup since February. Race to Dubai "leader", Patrick Reed makes his way over to compete having done so last year when finishing 4th on debut. He heads the market of Tommy Fleetwood, who looks to improve on his 3rd-2nd finishes in his past two European events, @ 11/1

Wentworth is not everyone's cup of tea, just ask Padraig Harrington, but it has shown over the years that experience here is key to a good week. That Reed should finish 4th last year at first attempt sayss something about his calibre and he can't be ignored, despite finishing 5 shots behind fellow Masters winner, Danny Willett. This is a ball strikers course and time again we've seen course specialists do well here and Simon Khan stamps that more than anyone else when quite a substantial percentage of his careers earnings have been from this event alone. I put up Shane Lowry  for the US Open last month but he hated every minute of it and did well to hang in there and improve his position over the weekend before heading back to Ireland for a well deserved break. He should be fully rested now and raring to go on one of his , if not his favourite course this week. The Irishman should have won in 2014 only to see Rory McIlroy get over his split from Caroline Wozniacki that week by pipping him on Sunday. Shano's form here though over the years is fantastic! (11-15-6-mc-6-2-12-68-4-65 ) and I am expecting a bold showing this week to finally cap it off with a win.

I haven't backed Justin Rose in quite a while, perhaps thinking Rose was content with life since he bagged his Olympic gold medal and went chasing corporate dollars, but having ditched the honma clubs six months ago, he looks like he's piquing for another win. He too has decent form here ; 8-12-38-25-50-2-mc-10-mc-2 and I also like the stat highlighted by Justin Ray following Sergio Garcia's win last week below and think Rose may be motivated to keep his winning streak going and he is not without a big chance here this week @ 18/1 or 24.00 on the exchange outright.

"Garcia has now won at least one official event worldwide every year since 2011. Only two other players have an active streak of 10 years or more with a victory: Yuta Ikeda (2009-2019, 11 straight) and Justin Rose (2010-19, 10 straight). Neither Ikeda nor Rose have won yet in 2020."

Rose has been quiet throughout 2020, and so has many in fairness but he hasn't been exactly non-competitive either. 9th at Harding Park can be seen as a positive as too can his T-25 at The Northern Trust, 3rd @ Charles Schwab and T-14th at RBC Heritage. I think JR will be motivated hugely here to keep that yearly win streak going

Finally, Marc Warren continues to show form and he's had decent results at Wentworth over the years too with 7 TOP-30s in his last 11 visits including being runner-up in 2013 to Matteo Mannasero having lost in a playoff along with aforementioned Simon Khan. A win last February in Qatar was followed up last week with a 4th place in Scotland so he can be confident his game is in order for a go here and @ 150/1 - 8 places he's well well worth a punt as to is the 11/2 (6.50) in the TOP-20 market.


1.50 pt e/w Shane Lowry @ 25/1 - 7 places
1.50 pts e/w J. Rose @ 18/1 - 8 places
0.25 pts e/w M. Warren @ 150/1 - 8 places
2.5 pts TOP-20 M. Warren @ 11/2