Alfred Dunhill Links & Sandersons Farm 2022

 Not much confidence in Scotland this week after hitting the post & crossbars the past couple of weeks and with the DP Tour events going through a "phase" it's hard to be motivated to find the value, nevermind tune in and listen to the contact narrative about LIV golf and Ryder Cup points....its becoming incessantly boring!

I've run through the form book, the course form as well as the prices and despite this event being good to me in the past, it's just one for a bet f or me as I can't get away from one of the market leaders prevailing.

I put up Guido Migliozzi at Wentworth just two weeks before he went in at Le Golf National last week having said of he and his compatriot, Francesco Molinari that " ...... the italian duo tend to perform when in good company" but didn't follow up with him despite advising that "I'm hoping that I can catch a player or two who I've backed recently that just might & should show up". On that basis I should really be onboard with Ewen Ferguson here @ 80/1 - 7 places and he carries the hopes for the week.

On the PGA Tour, Sam Burns defends but even though he's a shockingly priced jolly in the market I can't see him being ready to go after the exploits experienced last week. This could be the week for Sahith Theegala though but I'm overly keen on Russell Henley at a fair price of 25/1 

I'll take a chance on my final shortlist below

My Shortlist	Bet365 odds (less places)	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	Value (Y/N)	SG:T2G	SG:APR
Russell Henley	26	26	31	26	NO	8	-
Luke List	71	81	83	67	YES	6	8
Stephan Jaeger	91	81	108	67	YES	104	90
Ben Martin	226	251	510	251	NO	-	52
Max McGreevy	501	401	725	251	YES	162	122

Selections

A.Dunhill Links Championship

1 pt e/w E. Ferguson @ 80/1 - 7 places

Sandersons Farm Championship

2 pts e/w R. Henley @ 25/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w L/ List @ 66/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w S. Jaeger @80/1 - 8 places

0.5 pt e/w B. Martin @ 200/1 - 8 places

0.5 pt e/w M. McGreevy @ 500/1 - 8 places

Open de France 2022 - Le Golf National GC, Paris

 After a two year absence, one of the oldest national opens returns to the venue of the 2018 Ryder Cup, Le Golf National for the Open de France.

After a poor two weeks on the DP Tour for me, I'm hoping that I can catch a player or two who I've backed recently that just might & should show up this week. From my initial 21 players on the shortlist, this has been whittled down to just 6 based on my own criteria, SG:t2G & SG:APR as well as my tissue.

Romain Langasque @ 66/1 - 8 places was the one that I was quite keen on and the Frenchman can land his own National Open this week if he brings his A-game. Romain has 8 TOP-20s from his 22 starts on the DP Tour this season of which only one was a T-5 @ the BMW International a mere 8 starts ago. He ranks 12th on tour for SG:T2G and represents decent value and looks to be the only player from my final shortlist that offers some value other than Thriston Lawrence. TOP-20 last time here in 2019, and if there is indeed a course correlation with Celtic Manor, then Romain's win at Celtic Manor Twenty-Ten two years ago is encouraging

My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Mikko Korhonen	46	46	55	46
Thriston Lawrence	56	56	70	51
Ewen Ferguson	46	51	64	51
Edoardo Molinari	67	67	95	67
Romain Langasque	71	67	75	56
Kristoffer Broberg	251	301	255	301

Selections

1.5 pts e/w R. Langasque @ 66/1 - 8 places

Fortinet Championship 2022 - Silverado GC, Napa Valley, California

 The new 2022/2023 PGA Tour season kicks off as per usual on the West Coast, California when the Fortinet Championship is to be played yet again at the Silverado GC, Napa Valley.

As always we look to the KFT graduates to see how they fare on the big tour but it could very well be a week for those rookies of last year who may be keen to settle in here quickly having secured their playing privileges for the season ahead. 26 players initially ended up on my first shortlist draft before I whittled it down to 8 based on prices.

Selections

2 pts      e/w Beau Hossler @ 150/1 - 8 places ( significant value I believe ; 66/1 -90/1 my tissue)
0.75 pts e/w Rickie . Fowler @ 100/1 - 8 places
1.5 pts   e/w Mark Hubbard @ 100/1 - 8 places (decent value here ; 66/1 - 80/1 my tissue)
0.5 pts   e/w Ben Griffin @ 300/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts   e/w Max McGreevy @ 350/1 - 8 places (I shall continue to back Max at these prices despite 2 MCs here on his 2 visits)

Italian Open 2022 - Marco Simone GC, Roma, Italia

 Four selections for me this week at The Italian Open to be played at next year's Ryder Cup venue, Marco Simone GC outside Rome. Rory McIlroy tees it up and is joined by Victor Hovland,Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari as they look for early Ryder Cup points. 

Rory bolts in here though this week where driving is key as demonstrated by Nicolai Hogaard last year but I'll side with the 4 selections below looking to challenge him. All have decent SG:T2G/SG:OTT stats that suggest they will play well

Selections

1 pt e/w R. Mansell @ 50/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w M. Kawamura @ 55/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w C. Shinkwin @ 80/1 - 7 places
0.75 pts e/w H. du Plessis @ 100/1 - 7 places (* Non Runner?)

BMW PGA Championship 2022 - Wentworth GC, England

 The Irish Open relied on him to rejuvenate the tournament, the PGA Tour has turned to him to revitalize it's tour and now the DP World Tour's flagship event turns to Rory McIlroy to lead the cast in what could be an interesting week ahead. PGA & LIV tour players are in attendance and with Martin Kaymer's comments that he wants to stay away and avoid any friction, the tournament could sadly be dominated by off-course discussions rather than on course drama. Rory heads the betting having won the FedEx Cup last month and he is joined by Jon Rahm who does appear to be supporting both tours as much as he can. Rahm back on European soil is always a betting proposition but with the off course drama unfolding there may be better value further down the field. 

However, I am not going to go too far down as I really do think the US Open Champion, Matt Fitzpatrick may want to showcase his form here this week at a course that not only suits his game but a course that has yielded two T-10s in the past 4 visits not mention a 12th finish also in 2017. The Sheffield native won the US Open back in June having posted a T-5 at The PGA Championship and a 14th place finish at The Masters. Clearly he & Rory are the form players this week, and Matt's credentials can be bolstered by his 6th place finish at The Scottish Open, 21st at The Open Championship followed up by a 5th at St Jude, and 16th at the Tour Championship (72 hole strokeplay). He's taken in the win only market @ 13.00

As always for this, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood & Justin Rose get second looks and with the former two presently little to no value I am, perhaps foolhardily, gonna make a play with Justin Rose who may just be determined to put one over the LIV boys here this week at a course that he feels very comfortable on. The 60/1 - 8 places is a bet for me here especially given the course form that reads from 2021 back to 2007 as 6-37-8-dnp-12-dnp-38-25-50-2-mc-10-dnp-mc-2. 13th & 4th at the recent PGA Championship & Canadian Open suggest his game isn't in bad shape and with him slipping just outside the OWGR TOP-50, Justin Rose may have a personal goal to finish 2022 back inside it and he can make inroads at Wentworth this week to achieve that goal.

I'll complete my staking plan with stabs at Hurly Long @ 200/1 - 8 places, Guido Migliozzi @ 200/1 - 8 places as well as Masahiro Kawamura @ 150/1 - 8 places and Francesco Molinari @ 66/1 - 8 places

The German (or is he Irish ?) has produced some eye catching results on US soil of late and plays as a debutant here this week but he could take to Wentworth, whilst the italian duo tend to perform when in good company with the forer Open Champion having tasted success here just 4 years ago. Kawamura is in fine form having posted 22-9-14 in his last 3 starts at HimmerLand, Crans & Fairmont St Andrews!

Selections:

3 pts WIN M. Fitzpatrick @ 13.00
1 pt e/w J. Rose @ 60/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w H. Long @ 200/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w G. Migliozzi @ 200/1 - 8 places
0.75pts e/w M. Kawamura @ 150/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w F. Molinari @ 150/1 - 8 places