Wednesday, 21 November 2018

Hong Kong Open 2018 - Fanling GC, HK

The new season kicks off for the Europeantour this week at the Fanling Golf Club for the Hong Kong Open. Surprisingly, the field is boosted by Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia,Tommy Fleetwood and Rafa Cabrera-Bello, not to mention Matthew Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjeergaard.

Fanling is not a big course and measures ~6800 yds, par-70. There a number of dog-legs on the tree-lined course and it will suit the short accurate hitters. That said, Scott Hend did succeed here in 2014, and others such as Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose have also prevailed. The latter two being of high calibre would suggest this is a course where you need to bring your A-game.

I couldn't see much value in the markets leaders and as I made my book to 100% , I has them as per the table below. Only Fitzy & Bello would interest me slightly but as the tournament has produced some decent price winners along the way, I've had a go at some that offers some value to me.

PlayerMy ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % Book
Patrick Reed7.57137.69%
Tommy Fleetwood7.57119.09%
Sergio Garcia8.58119.09%
Rafael Cabrera Bello1210156.67%
Matthew FitzpatrickMatthew Fitzpatrick1313175.88%
Lucas Bjerregaard1717342.94%

Table-1: Market Leaders

I settled on the following shortlist of 5 (Table-2), from an initial 7-man list. The 2 players dropped were Miyazato Yusaku & Rashid Khan but I'm taking both of them in the TOP-20 market @ 9.50 and 13.00 respectively.

My ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % BookValue (Y/N)T-10 OddsT-20 Odds
Andrew Johnston7167611.64%YES7.53.5
Alejandro Canizares8181671.49%YES84
Thongchai Jaidee2012011760.57%YES135.5
James Morrison2012011760.57%YES136
Siddikur Rahman3013012760.36%YES239

Table-2: 7-Man Shortlist

The remaining 5 players make up my staking plan for this week's Hong Kong Open

Date22/11/2018Total Outlay10.00
EventHong Kong OpenTotal Returns0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
1.00Andrew Johnston71.002.00E/W0.00
1.00Alejandro Canizares81.002.00E/W0.00
0.50Thongchai Jaidee201.001.00E/W0.00
0.50James Morrison201.001.00E/W0.00
0.30Siddikur Rahman301.000.60E/W0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetMarketResultReturns
2.00Miyazato Yusaku9.502.00TOP-200.00
1.40Rashid Khan13.001.40TOP-200.00