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Tuesday, 22 November 2011

South Africa Open 2011

Yet another new course on the tour this year, so little to go on,other than it's a Jack Nicklaus designed course, the Serengeti. Home based players will surely dominate the leaderboard from the off and I have invested in three of them this week. I sidestepped Thomas Aiken last week, ( thank God) but the offer of 33/1 with Betpack is too good to pass on this week. Much more consistent this year, a winner on the European Tour to boot, he could make his mark this week on a course that should suit him. A missed cut last week can easily be ignored as this is something that you can get with Aiken. His ability to bounce back the week after is normal and is good value this week.
My second pick is Jbe Kruger who led after 36 holes last week before a disappointing weekend. He did rally a bit on Sunday and his form has been good. He can challenge again here and the 28/1 on offer with Paddypower really has to be snapped up.
My final selection is Jean Hugo @ 80/1 with Bet365. I backed him last week and despite opening with a solid round, he struggled off the tee but still managed a T44th. His GIR stats suggest that this type of course will serve him better. In fact of his 3 wins in South Africa this year, one was on a Nicklaus course and the other was at nearby Pretoria. His form on the Sunshine Tour this year has been excellent and the price is well worth taking for a good e/w punt.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w T.Aiken @ 33/1 Betpack

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w J.Kruger @ 28/1 Paddypower

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w J.Hugo @ 80/1 Bet365

Monday, 14 November 2011

Alfred Dunhill Championship 2011

Action switches to Leopard Creek in South Africa this week where the local lads are sure to go well! Let's just hope we get 72 holes in and no weather disruptions too but they call it The Sunshine Tour down there for a reason so here's hoping.The event is being played a bit earlier than normal to accommodate the finale in Dubai but should still be nice weather wise.

I want to back Thomas Aiken but at 14s I have to ask myself is that a price worth taking? He has got me some place money recently suggsting he aint playing too badly.I would chance a couple of win pts on him here but there is a bit of a whisper about Jean Hugo who seems to be playing very well in Sth Africa having won 3 times this year and his last 6 events have read 8,6,8,2,11,1, so its form that cannot be ignored that his lying 6th in their Order of Merit.. At 55/1 with Betpack I have to give him a shout. He won in July,August & Septemebr and if he continues that sequence then he should win in November !!
James Kingston is another who plays his best golf on home soil and at 33/1 with Paddypower he makes the staking plan having finished 10th last year and 17th in 2009. He currently lies 10th in the Order of Merit.
Of the non-locals the one player that I do give a real chance of surprising this week is Oliver Wilson. Ok he hasn't played as well as he has in 09 & 10 but recent efforts suggest he is settling down a bit and could very well produce the goods this week.He was 23rd in Andalucia, and although he missed the cut in Portugal, Castello & Singapore he had top 20 finishes at Madrid & The Dunhill Links. This is much weaker field and the better weather should help so I'll have a bit of the 40/1 with Paddypower also.

Pablo Martin goes in search of a hat-trick of wins here so its possible that a non-local can win here but I am expecting this to be a home dominated leaderboard all weekend. Lets hope that Aiken doesn't prevail for once !

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w J.Hugo @ 55/1 Betpack

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w J.Kingston @ 33/1 Paddypower

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w O.Wilson @ 40/1 Paddypower

Saturday, 12 November 2011

Couple of Threeballs for Serapong

The tournament has been ruined by the weather but if the final 18 gets played there will be some players looking to post a good enough score to ask a few questions of the leaders and the more experienced should win their threeballs especially the likes of Justin Rose playing with Joost Luiten & Danny Lee and Y E Yang playing alonside Richie Ramsay & Frederik Andersson. Both Rose & Yang sit on -8, albeit 7 behind Castano but a 67/68 could put the cat amongst the pigeons so to speak and they will be patient enough to seek out a good score and I am taking them to each win their threeball and a "liitle interest" in the double.

Rose to win threeball @ 2.38
Yang to win threeball @ 2.38
Rose/Yang double @ 5.66

Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Singapore Open 2011

Graeme McDowell is the favourite this week to win the Singapore Open from a field of 204! yes he played well last week, has been in the top 5 here the past 2 years but he most certainly is not a good bet at 16/1 to win here! Nor is Phil Mickelson at 18/1. I want to stick with Simon Dyson who has had a great year and has great record in Asia and can be backed at 28/1 with Paddypower. His confidence is up and is sure to play well here.
Padraig Harrington can be backed at 40/1 and I think its worth taking a chance on following a clear remarked improvement in results lately and he says himself, "he is playing better than the scorecard is showing" and that means his confidence is building. A former winner here, he will be keen to go well before he defends his title in Malaysia next week. If Padraig can get his opening 2 rounds under his belt to be on the leaderboard I suspect he will challenge the weekend.
I'm putting up Tom Lewis as my third selection and despite Paddypower offering 6 places this week I will take the 90/1 on offer with Betpack(5 places)- 66s with Paddypower. Recent winner, has the potential to be anything at the moment and its a price not to pass on.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w S.Dyson @ 28/1 Paddypower

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w P.Harrington @ 40/1 Paddypower

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w T.Lewis @ 90/1 Betpack