The US Open will be hosted by Brookline TCC for only the fourth time this week and it promises to be a tough US Open as has been the case in recent years. Brookline is of course the venue where Justin Leonard sank "that putt" that won the Ryder Cup for the USA in 1999. In form Matt Fitzpatrick won his US Amateur here in 2013 and reports indicate that Matt is being hosted by the same family this week that he stayed with in 2013. Interesting fact is that Jack NIcklaus missed the cut here in both 1963 & 1988
We'll need long & accurate, strong T2G players this week and from looking at the flyover players that perform well on difficult par-3s. The rough is exactly as it says on the tin and is quite visible from tee right up to the edges of the greens. It was noted in practice that players stated that finding bunkers could be a strategy to avoid the greenside rough.
Players who are in decent form the past couple of months should be targeted for a bet this week and I wouldn't be surprised if the leaderboard resembles something like what we saw at Southern Hills. That said, it's not easy finding real value here and based on that its a much reduced staking plan than normal from me at a US Open. Whilst Rahm may prove to be the value of the top-4 based on price versus his peers, I'm not overly convinced he should be lower than 16/1 given recent form but he's more than capable of producing here this week but as with my staking plan at the PGA, I do find it difficult to see past JT & Rory again this week.
I do believe that Brookline will be to Joaquin Niemann's liking this week and if he produces the form shown at Riviera and at Muirfield Village when winning and pushing Billy Ho last time out then he's got a great chance. He should take motivation from his friend and compatriot Mito Perreira's performance at Southern Hills and believe he can win! Joaquin has the win at Riviera and 4 further T-10s from his 15 starts this season and I like his grouping for the opening two rounds playing alongside Cameron Young & Will Zalatoris, with all three players in fine form. At 30/1 - 10 places it can be argued whether the price is fair or not but he's worth chancing with those additional places on offer. However, give Bet365 are offering 8 places I'll take their 35/1 - 8 places
Further down the betting, I think Tommy Fleetwood is under the radar somewhat and could put in a big effort when most don't expect him to. The Englishman has been simmering quite a bit of late with 6 TOP-20s from his 11 starts on the PGA this year, of which he posted 5 of them in his last 8 starts including a T5 at Southern Hills and a T14 at Augusta. 66/1 - 8 places is the bet for me although 50/1 - 10 places are available with additional places available elsewhere.
Sam Burns is sure to have a good week here but @ 22/1 generally I would reluctantly leave him out. I had priced at 25-30/1 and since William Hill have him available @ 30/1 - 9 places, I'm opening an account and getting onboard. Burns has 11 TOP20s from his 17 starts in 2022 of which he has won 3 times ! He backed his latest win up with a T-5 in Canada last week and has no issue being in contention. No US Open form to date but this is a different Sam Burns in 2022.
Rory or JT ? Yes either can win this week, and as much as I'd love to see Rory win another Major, I think Justin Thomas can go back to back here and claim his 3rd Major @ 14.5
Selections
3 pts WIN J. Thomas @ 14.5
1 pt e/w S.Burns @ 30/1 - 9 places
1 pt e/w J. Niemann @ 35/-1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w T. Fleetwood @ 66/1 - 8 places
