Mauritius Open 2022 - Mont Choisy Le Golf, Mauritius

 

After a three year absence we get back to beautiful Mauritius this week for the final event of 2022. Rasmus Hogaard does not defend his title having won here in December 2019 which is a little surprising and what's more surprising is the market leader at best price of 6/1 about Thomas Detry. The Belgian has been in excellent form of late there is no doubt but that's a shocking price in my opinion so I'm looking to get some value further down to end the year with hopefully the winner and I do like the chances of Oliver Bekker & Laurie Canter this week. The former could end 2022 with a much deserved win in Mauritius where he has performed well in previous visits finishing 9-7-9-8 in his 4 visits albeit at different courses. 4th last week and 13th in Johannesburg last month, the Pretoria native hasn't won in 5 years but has been having a stellar 2022 in his late thirties! Bekker posted 8 TOP-10s from his 27 starts on the DPT Tour 21/22 where he lost a playoff to Ardri Arnaus in Catalunya and has started this season in his native homeland where he left off last season. The 18/1 - 7 places is value given his Mauritius Open results in the past on top of that recent form.

The Englishman was backed 3 times this year;Dubai-Steyn City-Czech Masters for no return. He didn't really have a great season last so he's already off to a better start for this finishing 3rd last week with a closing 64.

Jaco Prinsloo is chanced again having backed him at The Joburg Open, this time @ 90/1 - 7 places and I'll complete the staking plan with small enough bets on Todd Clements @ & Alfredo Garcia-Heredia @ 100/1 & 80/1 respectively from the 15-man shortlist I finalized at below.

My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Thomas Detry	6	7	6.1	11
Antoine Rozner	17	19	19.6	19
Oliver Bekker	19	19	18.3	17
Laurie Canter	19	19	22	29
Renato Paratore	36	34	39	41
Ryo Hisatsune	36	41	38	41
Louis De Jager	36	41	44	46
Tom McKibbin	41	46	46	51
Brandon Stone	61	67	63	56
Grant Forrest	61	61	63	67
Jaco Prinsloo	91	91	86	81
Alfredo Garcia-Heredia	101	101	96	81
Martin Vorster	101	151	106	126
Todd Clements	111	126	116	151
Nicolas Colsaerts	161	151	157	201

Selections

2 pts e/w O. Bekker @ 18/1 - 7 places

1.5 pts e/w L.Canter @ 18/1 - 7 places

1 pt e/w J. Prinsloo @ 90/1 - 7 places

0.5 pts e/w T. Clements @ 100/1 - 7 places

0.5 pts e/w A.Garcia-Heredia @ 80/1 - 7 places

Joburg Open 2022 - Houghton GC, Johannesburg

 

The new 2022 -2023 season starts in both Australia & South Africa this Thursday for the DPT as these tournaments are co-sanctioned with the AUS PGA & Sunshine tours respectively.

The Joburg Open was reinstated in 2020 having been missing the previous year and it didn't have much luck last year when the tournament was reduced to 36 holes as Thriston Lawrence took the title with a brace of 65s before the weather had other ideas at Randpark GC. It was the same story in 2017 when at the last time to be played at the Royal Johannesburg & Kensington GC, Darren Fichardt prevailed over 54 holes when again torrential rain put paid to the tournament early.

Joachim B Hansen took the title in 2020 as he joined his compatriot, Anders Hansen(2009)on the roll of honour. With Andy Sullivan winning in 2009 and Shubhankar Sharma in 2018 the only non SA winners in the past 13 events, it does suggest we should look at the home based players yet again this week and thats what I've done with the selections this week with two "old guys" and 2 "young 'uns". It's the 20-year old, Vorster that I'm keen to do well here this week as he has shown signs he could be the next big thing from South Africa.  Winner of Ireland's East of Ireland Championship at Baltray 3 years ago to follow up on his success at the Junior British Open at St Andrews the year before, he's been in fine form of late on the Sunshine tour finishing 5th & 6th in his last two events this month and the price is very tempting indeed here this week.

Selections

1 pt e/w Jaco Prinsloo @ 66/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w Shaun Norris @ 80/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w Richard Sterne @ 80/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w Martin Vorster @ 125/1 - 7 places

CME GROUP TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP 2022 - Naple,Florida

 

Selection

1 pt e/w L.Maguire @ 40/1 - 6 places

RSM Classic 2022 - SEA ISLAND GOLF CLUB (SEASIDE COURSE)

 

Selections:

1 pt e/w S.Theegala @40/1 - 8 places
.5 pt e/w M.McGreevy @ 300/1 - 8 places

DP World Tour Championship 2022 - Earth Course Jumeirah Estates, Dubai, UAE

 

Selections:

1 pt e/w A.Arnuas @100/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w V. Perez @ 70/1 - 6 places
0.5 pts e/w J.Paul @125/1 - 5 places

Nedbank Challenge 2022 - Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa

 

Selections

2.5 pts e/w C. Bezhuidenhout @ 18/1 - 6 places
1.5 pt e/w H. Long @ 50/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w E. Ferguson @ 66/1 - 6 places
1 pt e/w G. Migliozzi @ 70/1 - 7 places

Final 15-man shortlist

My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book
Christiaan Bezuidenhout	19	19	19.2	17	5.88%
Branden Grace	23	26	27	29	3.45%
Adrian Otaegui	36	36	58	46	2.17%
Victor Perez	36	41	47	41	2.44%
Thriston Lawrence	36	41	44	41	2.44%
Yannik Paul	46	41	64	46	2.17%
Callum Shinkwin	41	46	53	51	1.96%
Richard Mansell	41	41	53	51	1.96%
Marcel Schneider	56	51	68	56	1.79%
Adri Arnaus	56	56	86	51	1.96%
Hurly Long	51	56	83	51	1.96%
Nicolai Hojgaard	56	56	98	51	1.96%
Ewen Ferguson	67	67	83	56	1.79%
Zander Lombard	71	76	106	81	1.23%
Guido Migliozzi	61	71	96	61	1.64%

Houston open 2022 - Memorial Park GC,Houston, Texas

 

Selections

1pt e/w B. Hossler @ 100/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w T. Pendrith @ 40/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w D. Lingmerth @ 200/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts M. McGreevy @ 400/1 - 8 places

My final 10-man shortlist

My Shortlist	Bet365 odds (less places)	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds	My % Book	Value (Y/N)
Sam Burns	13	13	17.7	15	6.67%	NO
Russell Henley	23	23	29	34	2.94%	NO
Beau Hossler	101	126	127	81	1.23%	YES
Taylor Pendrith	41	46	47	41	2.44%	YES
Sepp Straka	71	71	78	111	0.90%	NO
David Lingmerth	201	201	431	151	0.66%	YES
Adam Long	101	101	167	111	0.90%	NO
Luke List	91	91	186	126	0.79%	NO
Maverick McNealy	26	26	30	101	0.99%	NO
Max McGreevy	401	501	980	251	0.40%	YES

  

This is an event I do not want to get too involved in as I couldn't complete a tissue at all for it falling way short of forming a proper "book" for me. Some of the players at 20/1 - 40/1 range really are poor value and even taking into account the strength of the field, they are players that I'm not going to consider. Some but not all, Shelton @ 40/1 , Hubbard (and I've backed him a few times already) @ 22/1, Rodgers @ 28/1, Wu & Sigg @ 40 - 45/1 are crazy low prices but the market leader Denny McCarthy has to be a lay @ 16s !! Even the 25.00 on the exchange is low. Imade Seamus Power favourite @ 25/1

Given I couldn't complete a tissue and therefore derive a shortlist, Max gets backed again (I hope the wind doesn't get up) @ 250/1 - 8 places and I had been drawn to possibly taking Russell Knox @ 30/1 - 8 places. In the end, it's just my personal interest in Max and he's added to the blog P&L for this weeks poor quality PGA event

Selection

1 pt e/w M. McGreevy @ 250/1 - 8 places