Its the second edition of the European Tour's Oman Open this week. The event will be played at the critically acclaimed, Greg Norman designed Al Mouj GC outside Muscat. Its is a links style course that should also see wind as a factor for the players. Joost Luiten, fresh off a TOP-10 in Mexico last week, defends. At a general 9-10/1 favourite, he is sure to have his followers and despite his proven links record and hot recent form, it's fair to say that Luiten isn't exactly a renowned winner and thus he's a bit short for my liking here.
Proven links players are the centre of focus for the week. Last years final leaderboard had links proven players such as Chris Wood, Matthew Southgate, Robert Rock and Stephen Gallacher amongst the T-10. The Challenge Tour hosted 3 Grand Finals here as well as two Oman Classicsand the leaderboards then also pointed to players who like the conditions. From my shortlist below I finalized on 22 players that have links in their armoury. 12 of those I deem of value which I've
dutched for a win
My Shortlist | Best Odds | Best Exchange | My Odds | My % Book | Probability | EV | Value (Y/N) |
Joost Luiten | 10 | | 15 | 6.67% | 0.07 | -0.333 | NO |
Ross Fisher | 25 | | 19 | 5.26% | 0.05 | 0.316 | YES |
Alexander Levy | 22 | | 26 | 3.85% | 0.04 | -0.154 | NO |
Jordan Smith | 25 | | 41 | 2.44% | 0.02 | -0.390 | NO |
Justin Harding | 30 | | 41 | 2.44% | 0.02 | -0.268 | NO |
Minwoo Lee | 35 | | 51 | 1.96% | 0.02 | -0.314 | NO |
Chris Wood | 40 | | 29 | 3.45% | 0.03 | 0.379 | YES |
Lucas Herbert | 50 | | 41 | 2.44% | 0.02 | 0.220 | YES |
Romain Langasque | 45 | | 61 | 1.64% | 0.02 | -0.262 | NO |
Paul Dunne | 40 | | 34 | 2.94% | 0.03 | 0.176 | YES |
Marcus Kinhult | 35 | | 51 | 1.96% | 0.02 | -0.314 | NO |
Paul Waring | 50 | | 46 | 2.17% | 0.02 | 0.087 | YES |
Pablo Larrazabal | 55 | | 41 | 2.44% | 0.02 | 0.341 | YES |
Robert Rock | 66 | | 67 | 1.49% | 0.01 | -0.015 | NO |
Bradley Dredge | 75 | | 67 | 1.49% | 0.01 | 0.119 | YES |
Matthew Southgate | 70 | | 71 | 1.41% | 0.01 | -0.014 | NO |
Thomas Aiken | 100 | | 81 | 1.23% | 0.01 | 0.235 | YES |
Brandon Stone | 100 | | 81 | 1.23% | 0.01 | 0.235 | YES |
Joachim B Hansen | 80 | | 101 | 0.99% | 0.01 | -0.208 | NO |
Renato Paratore | 100 | | 81 | 1.23% | 0.01 | 0.235 | YES |
Marc Warren | 175 | | 151 | 0.66% | 0.01 | 0.159 | YES |
Gavin Moynihan | 250 | | 201 | 0.50% | 0.00 | 0.244 | YES |
As per my
post in January I'll track the dutching system against my weekly cards. This weeks card will include some round-1 threeballs which I will update Wednesday evening
| | | | | | | | |
| Date | 28/02/19 | | | Total Outlay | 10.00 | | |
| Event | Oman Open | | | Total Returns | 0.00 | | |
| Tour | EURO | | | P&L | -10.00 | | |
| Outlay | 10.00 | | | ROI | -100.00% | | |
| Return | 0.00 | | | | | | |
| | | | 10.00 | | | 0.00 | |
| Stake | Player | Odds | Total Cost of Bet | Terms | Result | Returns | |
| 2.00 | R. Paratore | 7.00 | 2.00 | win | | 0.00 | |
| 1.00 | R. Fisher (1/5 - 7 places) | 26.00 | 2.00 | e/w | | 0.00 | |
| 1.00 | C. Wood (1/5 - 6 places) | 51.00 | 2.00 | e/w | | 0.00 | |
| 1.00 | P. Larrazabal (1/5 - 7 places) | 51.00 | 2.00 | e/w | | 0.00 | |
| 2.00 | G. Moynihan TOP-20 | 11.00 | 2.00 | win | | 0.00 | |
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