Tuesday, 26 February 2019

Its the second edition of the European Tour's Oman Open this week. The event will be played at the critically acclaimed, Greg Norman designed Al Mouj GC outside Muscat. Its is a links style course that should also see wind as a factor for the players. Joost Luiten, fresh off a TOP-10 in Mexico last week, defends. At a general 9-10/1 favourite, he is sure to have his followers and despite his proven links record and hot recent form, it's fair to say that Luiten isn't exactly a renowned winner and thus he's a bit short for my liking here.

Proven links players are the centre of focus for the week. Last years final leaderboard had links proven players such as Chris Wood, Matthew Southgate, Robert Rock and Stephen Gallacher amongst the T-10. The Challenge Tour hosted 3 Grand Finals here as well as two Oman Classicsand the leaderboards then also pointed to players who like the conditions. From my shortlist below I finalized on 22 players that have links in their armoury. 12 of those I deem of value which I've dutched for a win

My ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % BookProbabilityEVValue (Y/N)
Joost Luiten10156.67%0.07-0.333NO
Ross Fisher25195.26%0.050.316YES
Alexander Levy22263.85%0.04-0.154NO
Jordan Smith25412.44%0.02-0.390NO
Justin Harding30412.44%0.02-0.268NO
Minwoo Lee35511.96%0.02-0.314NO
Chris Wood40293.45%0.030.379YES
Lucas Herbert50412.44%0.020.220YES
Romain Langasque45611.64%0.02-0.262NO
Paul Dunne40342.94%0.030.176YES
Marcus Kinhult35511.96%0.02-0.314NO
Paul Waring50462.17%0.020.087YES
Pablo Larrazabal55412.44%0.020.341YES
Robert Rock66671.49%0.01-0.015NO
Bradley Dredge75671.49%0.010.119YES
Matthew Southgate70711.41%0.01-0.014NO
Thomas Aiken100811.23%0.010.235YES
Brandon Stone100811.23%0.010.235YES
Joachim B Hansen801010.99%0.01-0.208NO
Renato Paratore100811.23%0.010.235YES
Marc Warren1751510.66%0.010.159YES
Gavin Moynihan2502010.50%0.000.244YES

As per my post in January I'll track the dutching system against my weekly cards. This weeks card will include some round-1 threeballs which I will update Wednesday evening

Date28/02/19Total Outlay10.00
EventOman OpenTotal Returns0.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
2.00R. Paratore7.002.00win0.00
1.00R. Fisher (1/5 - 7 places)26.002.00e/w0.00
1.00C. Wood (1/5 - 6 places)51.002.00e/w0.00
1.00P. Larrazabal (1/5 - 7 places)51.002.00e/w0.00
2.00G. Moynihan TOP-2011.002.00win0.00

Tuesday, 19 February 2019

WGC Mexico Card

Having followed Matty Fitzpatrick and Lucas Bjerregaard for 6 holes on the Friday in Dubai, I'm keen to get on board with both here in Mexico on a course that suits.The Englishman was playing very nicely at The Emirates whilst the Dane showed his mentality over the front -9 that day to hang in before hitting the birdie trail. They have experience playing at altitude and won't be fazed by the field and offer real value for a bold showing here. Lucas can be backed e/w @ 200/1 for 5 places but I'll take the 150/1 for the extra 2 places generally available

I do like the chances of Justin Thomas too, of course he'll arrive on the back of huge disappointment in LA on Sunday night but he's hitting form and can maintain it for another week.

Will look at potential threeball bets later Tuesday night/Wednesday and add to the card below

UPDATE: 21/02/19 10:55 Threeballs added for Round-1

Date21/02/2019Total Outlay16.00
EventWGC MexicoTotal Returns0.00
TourWGC MexicoP&L-16.00
StakePlayerOddsTotal Cost of BetTermsResultReturns
1.00M. Fitzpatrick (1/5 - 6 places)81.002.00E/W0.00
0.50L. Bjerregaard (1/5 - 7 places)151.001.00E/W0.00
3.00J. Thomas12.003.00WIN0.00
Match BetsSelectionOddsTotal Cost of BetMarketResultReturns
2.00T.Hatton to bt Reavie & Coetzee2.22.000.00
2.00L.Oosthuizen to bt Horschel & Otaegui2.502.000.00
4.00A.Wise to bt Imahira & Millar2.384.000.00
2.00L.Westwood to bt Grace & Bradley3.002.000.00