Wednesday, 5 December 2018

South African Open 2019 - Randpark GC, Joburg

A shift in schedule sees the South African Open taking the shape of previous Joburg Opens where over 230 players will tee it up at Randpark GC in Johannesburg this week. As always with these co-sanctioned tournaments in South African , we can expect one of the home players to prevail and the market is lead by former Open Champion, Louis Oosthuizen. He's in good company though with fellow countrymen,  former US Masters champ, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Dean Burmester, Erik Van Rooyen and Justin Harding all claiming strong claims to their National Open title this week.

My shortlist this week settled on 12 players, of value in some way. Of the 12, 6 players showed considerable value, highlighted green in the below list. If I dutched the 6 players in the outright win market for accumulative odds of 10/1 (11.00), looking for a return of 275.00, I think we could trade successfully throughout the 4 days.

I want to get Gavin Moynihan into the staking plan though as the Dubliner is in form and the course should suit. A TOP-10 in Valderrama in October was followed up by a successful Q-School campaign and a further TOP-20 (T-11th) in Mauritius last week. At 6.00 for a TOP-20 here is about fair so chancing either a TOP-10 @ 15.00 or e/w for 8 places (paddypower) @ 101.00 or 7 places @ 151.00 (skybet, betway,betfred) could be worthwhile.  I'll chance the TOP-10 @ 15.00.

Instead of dutching the 6 players in the outright win market, I'll play the each-way markets as per staking plan below.

PlayerMy ShortlistBest OddsBest ExchangeMy OddsMy % BookValue (Y/N)
Branden GraceBranden Grace1314.8137.69%YES
Erik Van RooyenErik Van Rooyen3130293.45%YES
Justin HardingJustin Harding4142412.44%YES
Sean CrockerSean Crocker4148362.78%YES
George CoetzeeGeorge Coetzee5144313.23%YES
Darren FichardtDarren Fichardt5670342.94%YES
Richard SterneRichard Sterne6171412.44%YES
Scott VincentScott Vincent6776412.44%YES
Brandon StoneBrandon Stone6765412.44%YES
Bernd WiesbergerBernd Wiesberger6780412.44%YES
Gavin MoynihanGavin Moynihan1512381510.66%YES
Trevor Fisher JnrTrevor Fisher Jnr1761901510.66%YES
Table-1 SA Open Shortlist

Staking Plan

1.00 pt e/w G. Coetzee @ 51.00 (5 places)
1.00 pt e/w D. Fichardt @ 51.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w R. Sterne    @ 51.00 (7 places)
1.00 pt e/w S. Vincent  @ 67.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w B. Stone     @ 51.00 (8 places)
1.00 pt e/w B. Wiesberger @ 67.00 (7 places)
3.00 pts TOP-10 G. Moynihan @ 15.00