Honda Classic 2022 - PGA National Palm Beach, Florida

 We have been spoilt the past two weeks on the PGA Tour which makes up for lack of DP Tour & LPGA golf, where TPC Scottsdale & Riviera proved to be challenging courses for elite fields. We have another tough course this week in Palm Beach but we are lacking the elite players as the Florida Swing gets underway. Sungjae Im is just about the right favourite for the event ahead of last week's very impressive winner, Joaquin Niemann.

A strong ball striker with excellent SG:T2G stats will prevail here this week as well as those with excellent scrambling skills as we face smallish greens at PGA National. The stimp won't be as quick as Riviera and the grass type will be welcomed by many in this field following "strange grass in California". The tournament has thrown up some long odds winners down the years (80/1 Matt Jones last year and 250/1 Keith Mitchell in 2019 plus many others). From the head of the market this week, I do indeed like the chances of Sungjae Im as he won here back in 2020 and this season alone he's won (Shriners) and posted another 5 T-20s from his 9 starts to date. At 14/1 though I'll pass and seek some more value further down.

It proved to be an alright strategy last year in keeping the faith with players on the staking plan and to that end I'll stick with Alex Noren here again this week on the back of last week's comment that he tends to hold form for a spell and although he faded down the leaderboard last week, I'll go again in the hope that PGA National will be a better suited course for the Swede although Riviera is too. But the field is not as strong here and Riviera is not really a catch up course to go birdie hunting on once Joaquin had sailed off into the sunset so he can reset here and go again.Noren has form here having finished 3rd in 2018 just a stroke behind eventual winner, Justin Thomas and Luke List. At 33/1 - 8 places I'm happy to stick with him again this week.

Lee Westwood I thought I wouldn't be backing again but there's no denying he can still compete in these tournaments and I though his price was very interesting this week @ 66/1 - 8 places (60s -10 places with Boyles) The Englishman missed the cut last year but was 4th in 2020 and posted 3 TOP10s between 2010 & 2015 in the 6 visits. 20th in Abu Dhabi was followed up with a lowly 32nd in Dubai last month but he'll be at ease in Florida and the price is certainly of some value.

I'm admitting that I'm just chancing Martin Kaymer to find form here. The new dad, could be more relaxed and is a player that excels on tough courses and he'll need to bring his tee to green game here to contend. There's no other reason to back him here as there is no recent form of late, and he will be rusty for sure and has little to boast about when playing here in the past, but he's added to the staking plan given that he could produce any given week and the 80/1 - 8 places is just about fair.

I do however, like to chances of Charl Schwartzel @ 150/1 - 10 places. The South African had been playing well in 2021 (16/23 with 2 TOP-5s posted)  but has yet to produce any result of note this season. The 2011 Masters Champion has posted 53-17-16-mc-mc-9-5-14 here in his 8 visits so its a course that he seems quite comfortable on.

Max McGreevy is added to the staking plan again @ 500/1 - 8 places. Max has missed the cut on his last opening four events in 2022 but we can't ignore his two T-20s back at Houston & the RSM either. A first visit to PGA National on the PGA Tour and it's all about a solid opening round for me if he's to hang in there and give me a run for my money. 

Selections

1.75 pts e/w A. Noren @ 33/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w L. Westwood @ 66/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w M. Kaymer @ 80/1 - 8 places
0.50 pts e/w C.Schwartzel @ 150/1 - 10 places
0.50 pts e/w M. McGreevy @ 500/1 - 8 places

Genesis Invitational 2022 - Riviera GC, Los Angeles

 I say it every year, I love Riviera GC and the tournament. The cream usually rises to the top, although we have had shock winners in recent times but essentially if you are not in form coming into this week you will not contend. And on that, despite Tony Finau on my final 10-man shortlist I can't pull the trigger even at the price...he does like it here but he also likes Torrey Pines and his game was all at sea a few weeks ago there.

It'll be a great tournament, and it'll be hard to beat Phoenix but this is a true test and course form usually is worth a shot or two and so therefore first on the staking plan is my old reliable here, Dustin Johnson @ 17/1 (Betfair Exchange as I'll go win only). I'd probably take the 16s in fairness but I want to get a few more on the plan as well. DJ has solid form here and knows how to play Riviera often citing it is his favourite course to play where his par-5 scoring is worth taking notice of. Yes, Cantlay is the form player and it's hard to argue that he shouldn't be favourite where he too boasts course form, he deserves to be favourite for sure, but is he fighting disappointment having missed that putt last week to win in normal time? He's 2 to 3 points lower in the betting than DJ purely on current form and I'm not sure thats correct. DJ has played here every year and in his last 13 years he has won (2017) and posted a further 9 TOP-10s!  He's the one to beat this week in my book.

Alex Noren gave us a great run last week and only if that iron shot to the 15th was struck a bit better he could've won. I'm keen to back him again here where his fade will suit as depicted in his results at Riviera having posted two TOP-20s in his 3 visits, finishing 12th here last year. He should be brimming with confidence following a good week last week and Alex has shown many times that once he hits form he tends to stay in form for a spell. 66/1 - 8 places has a bit of value for me (I made him 50s)

Russell Henley could go well this week on back of decent form already in 2022 where he should have posted a win at the Sony Open. Nothing really to boast at Riviera to date other than a T-17th two years ago but the course really should be to his liking and having the experience and recent form in the bag, he's worth a chance @ 60/1 - 8 places.

33/1 - 8 places about Sam Burns is fair. He's certainly risen the ranks on tour and can compete against the big boys any given week. He has Riviera form too having finished 3rd twelve months ago following 23rd the previous year. He arrives having a win already this season and from his 8 starts can boast 6 T-20s of which 3 are TOP-5s. 

Lastly, I'm adding two South Africans in Erik Van Rooyen & Branden Grace @ 90/1 & 200/1 both 8 places respectively. The grass here is their cup a tea, and both are not exactly out of form are they? Grace was 7th at the ZOZO and posted a TOP-50 at Phoenix. He was 20th here last year and can go better. Well worth an interest! I'm hoping Erik can follow up on 20 & 25th places in Hawaii when last seen and put in a good week despite only one visit to Riviera so far where he duly missed the cut by 2 in 2020. Price is fair and is included ahead of Cameron Tringale & Max Homa who are just too short now.

Selections

3 pts WIN D. Johnson @ 17/1
1 pt e/w S. Burns @ 33/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w R. Henley @ 60/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Noren @ 66/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w E. Van Rooyen @ 90/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w B. Grace @ 200/1 - 8 places

Ras Al Khaimah Classic 2022 - AlHamra GC, UAE

 The DPT remains in the UAE again this week and it also stays at the same course as used last week. Al Hamra GC proved to be a course where SG:T2G were the crucial stats needed and the winner seemed to find it quite suitable and indeed loved attacking the par-4 13th each day. Can Nicolai Hogaard go in again ? From his performance last week and especially in his display of total driving, it would suggest he could very well do and @ 14/1, he could be tempting. I wouldn't be surprised at all but during the pandemic we have had a number of back to back events played on the same course where the first week's winner hasn't done as well the week after. Whether Al Hamra can change tees to make it slightly different I'm not sure but scoring does look like it could be lowered this week from last.

Based on strong SG:T2G stats from last week I'm siding with 3 players that could improve here this week

Oliver Bekker scored well last week to post a TOP-10. The South African was 2nd in the SG:T2G dept as well as 8th SG:OTT whilst also a decent TOP-40 for approach play. If he drives it as well again this week he could outplay his odds of 80/1 - 7 places

Laurie Canter and Callum Shinkwin were high on my shortlist but their odds have shortened too much to 33/1 for me to take so I've completed my staking plan here with Yannick Paul & Francesco Laporta, who I backed at the Dunhill Links back in September and again a few weeks ago in Abu Dhabi. Of course, Laporta got it going last week here to finish 21st having dropped him, but I feel having played the course so recently he may just find his form and go better @ 80/1 - 7 places. 

The German could be a surprise contender given recent his form and he is no slouch off the tee either. Ranking a low enough 47th for SG:T2G last week but a highly 24th for approach play, like Bekker if he can make slight improvement off the tee given the course is now familiar, he can contend.

Selections:

1 pt e/w O. Bekker @ 80/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w Y. Paul @ 80/1 - 7 places
1 pt e/w F. Laporta @ 100/1 - 7 places

Phoenix Open 2022 - TPC Scottsdale, Phoenix Arizona

 I so wanted to get JT & Hideki Matsuyama on to my staking plan this week but have decided to pass up on them and chance 3 players that I think might go close instead. I'll cheer on JT and watch Hideki from behind the sofa!

Runner-up last week in Saudi Arabia, Bubba Watson could be rejuvenated and ready to win again on the back of a good result there but also be inspired to do so by his mate, Harold Varner's victory. 43 year old Bubba hasn't won on tour since almost 4 years ago but as Riviera & Augusta approach its no surprise to see his game coming back into form as he relishes those upcoming visits. Bubba should have won this event back in 2014 when losing by a single shot and he missed out again the following year by the same margin too. Just one missed cut here in his last 11 starts with results boasting 5 TOP-5s and a further 2 TOP15s in that spell,it's clear from the results that he does indeed like TPC Scottsdale despite the grief the fans gave him in 2016 following an interview that suggested otherwise. Bubba is a contender here and I think there's some value to be had in the 40/1 - 8 places that is generally available.

I do like the chances of the 2019 champion, Rickie Fowler this week @ 80/1 - 8 places. We've seen many times how a return to a specific course can motivate if not inspire a player to produce a result and Rickie has shown recently that perhaps he's not too far away from a return to form. The nature of the raucous crowd that will be in attendance at the course will suit and Rickie is an ever popular player amongst the fans. He missed the cut last year and finished a lowly 39th in 2020 whilst defending but he did post 11-4-2 the three visits prior to the win. The runner up finish coming via a playoff defeat at the hands of Hideki Matsuyama. He does however arrive here this week on the back of back to back MCs at Torrey Pines & La Quinta but he did post a 3rd place finish at the CJ Cup in Las Vegas. 

Lastly, I couldn't resist a play on Alex Noren this week @ 125/1 - 8 places. The Swede hasn't won on the PGA Tour despite taking Jason Day to 6 extra holes at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines just over 4 years ago. He's well capable of breaking the hoodoo on the tour and as he approaches 40 years of age this summer, the Swede has the ball striking game and the calmness or coolness to perform at Scottsdale and go better then his sole visit here in 2018 when finishing 21st the week after that heartbreak at Torrey Pines. Form has been sporadic so far this season but the price makes up for that and I'm happy to chance him here to rise up in Phoenix.

Selections:

2 pts e/w B. Watson @ 40/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w R. Fowler @ 801 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Noren @ 125/1 - 8 places

Ras al Khaimah Championship 2022 - Alhamra GC,

 The DP Tour heads to the 4th largest emirate within the UAE this week for the inaugural Ras al Khaimah Championship to be played at the Alhamra GC. The Challenge Tour has hosted events here in the past so the course has experience of Championship golf. With a much lesser grade of field in attendance the events could be considered wide open where Bernd Wiesberger heads the market and is the man to beat.

I'm just going to post my selections given the course will be new to nearly the whole field. We will have next week's event played here also so perhaps we could learn more over the 4 days ahead of that one.

I'm going to give one more chance to Alexander Bjork, Thorbjorn Olesen & Antoine Rozner here @ 33s, 50s, 50s respectively. As per last week and previous previews,I believe they are not too far away from having a solid week and given the field quality believe they can compete at decent odds. Guido Migliozzi was very tempting again at 125/1 but so too were Jacques Kruyswijk, Nino Bertasio & James Morrison but its really such an open event that I'm happy to stick with the 3 selections and perhaps attack next week at the Ras al Khaimah Classic

Selections

1 pt e/w A. Bjork @ 33/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 50/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Rozner @ 50/1 - 7 places

AT&T Pro-Am @ Pebble Beach 2022 - Pebble Beach, Spyglass & Monterey GC

 Not my favourite tournament for viewing purposes as TV editors become obsessed with the A-list celebrities that tee it up for the annual Pro-Am at Pebble Beach. Nonetheless, with their absence last year due to the pandemic restrictions, I should be grateful to view the golf this week particularly as we are treated to quality golf courses and perhaps enjoy the banter amongst the golfers & celebs as it shows a return to normal and a general feel-good environment. I won't be spending as much viewing time as per normal PGA week though !

A very tough tournament to solve this week, but having first looked at the inaugural event in Dubai to be played this week, I thought this one might be a better one to tackle. History shows that multiple winners are the norm, that those winners come of a certain ilk, whether thats being American or of a certain age. Only 3 non-Americans have won this tournament in the last 30 years (Brett Ogle 1993, Vijay Singh 2004 & Nick Taylor 2020). During that span, Mark O'Meara was winning his 4th & 5th title, Phil Mickelson would win his 5 titles also, DJ - 2, Snedeker - 2, David Love - 2 and not to forget Johnny Miller winning his 3rd title aged 46 in 1994. Thirteen players have won this tournament more than once since its inception back in 1937 with Tiger Woods, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson & Tom Kite winning both the AT&T and a US Open here at Pebble Beach

So for me this week, I'm going to side with experienced players and first on my list is Jordan Spieth who won here in 2017 and has posted a further 4 TOP10s in his last 8 visits. Jordan was way down the field last time out but his personality and game for the links is very much ideal for the week ahead and he can join the multiple winners list @ 20/1 - 8 places.

I'm going to chance Matt Kuchar here also @ 66/1 - 8 places given his fondness for links/wind tests. "Kooch" has won the Sony Open & The Mayakoba Classic at courses that require wind control and he boasts a not too shabby record at The Opens also having posted 5 TOP10s in his 16 starts (4 further T-25s). Form at this event though is nothing to get excited about but is clear that a return to form is well underway having posted 5/5 this season with a 7th place finish last time out at the Sony Open. The experienced laid back 43yr old is a decent price amongst the assembled field.

Speaking of experience and multiple winners, I'm not when I last had a few pennies if at all on Brandt Snedeker but given the winners history here I thought he was worth a speculation this week @ 80/1 - 8 places. Winner here in 2015 & 2013, "Sneds" has also posted a 4th place in 2019. He has however, missed the cut on his last 3 visits but we can ignore that and go on the confidence that the setup is to his liking and recent form suggests he could be ready for the week having posted a TOP-15 LTO @ The Amex.

Lastly, in direct contrast to reasons above I'm having a small interest in Denny McCarthy on the back of latest results where he has improved his position each time with 6-10-11-15  (edit: Price is far too short for me so not a bet here)

Selections

2.5 pts e/w J.Spieth @ 20/1 - 8 places
1pt e/w M. Kuchar @ 66/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w B. Snedeker @ 80/1 - 8 places