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Wednesday, 30 January 2013

Waste Management Phoenix Open - 2013

Following Tiger Woods win on Monday in San Diego, the second event already this year to go into an extra day, the PGA Tour moves onto Arizona for the eagerly awaited Phoenix Open sponsored  by Waste Managaement to be held at the TPC Scottsdale course. I say eagerly awaited as the fans attending this week will be the most vociferous on tour all year, where beer will fuel the "get in the hole" roars, especially on the stadium 16th par 3.Its an event that I'd love to see hosted either the week before or the week after The Masters!
This year we have a very competitive field assembled and entails quite a number of the European players with the likes of Martin Kaymer, Padraig Harrinton, Ross Fisher and Nicholas Colsaerts. The betting is headed by Jason Dufner and Rickie Fowler at 14 & 16/1. Dufner left it a bit late last week in Qatar to get going but the trip to the Middle East may have freshened him up for this one, but I am going to swerve him this week as I seek better value elsewhere.
Despite no return last week for our picks in San Diego, I thought if both Bill Haas and Hunter Mahan had holed some putts they would have been in contention. Mahan missed a lot of putts inside 10 feet, and if he plays as well as he did he is sure to go well again this week. Both Mahan & Haas make my staking plan again this week at @ 35/1 and 33/1 both with Betpack.
My third selection is Russell Henley, rookie winner in Hawaii @ 66/1, again with Betpack who are paying 6 places. Henley looked the real deal in Hawaii and was well in contention at The Humana until one horrific hole ended his chances.He'll be at home on this course I feel and the price is just too big for me to ignore.

Hopefully in Arizona the weather will ensure we have 4 days uninterrupted and come Sunday our picks will be in the mix so I can grab a beer from my fridge and roar them on in the manner that the Phoenix gallery will do.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w H.Mahan @ 35/1 Betpack

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w B.Haas @ 33/1 Betpack

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w R.Henley @ 66/1 Betpack


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Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Omega Dubai Desrt Classic 2013

The final leg of the Desert Swing takes place at the Emirates GC in Dubai with Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood heading the field, which in fairness is a bit lacking from the previous two weeks. These two rightly go off as the bookies favourites and Garcia in particular looked sharp last week and will be hoping to go one better this week.
Last week, our four selections were on the fringe of things throughout the tournament with the 80/1 shout, Victor Dubuisson just missing out on a place by a single shot. He proved again though that certain golfers will play some of their best golf on courses that they like. This week we will try look for the same credentials and oppose Garcia & Westwood. My first selection this week is Henrik Stenson. We backed him last week and got off to a flyer in round 1 only to drop 3 shots over his closing 5 holes in that round. With Stenson, you need to factor in his temperament but he fought back well the weekend to merit consideration again this week on a course he won back in 2007, not to mention 3 Top 10s since as well. The Swede can be backed at 14/1.
My second pick this week is Stephen Gallacher @ 66/1 or 60/1 with Betpack (paying 6 places again this week). The Scot has great form in this event, and showed some good form last week despite a poor result, but he has two Top 10s here in the past couple of seasons and his record here has shown a marked improvement each time he plays. The wind is forecasted this week and this will play into his hands. A good start is vital if he is to contend, but he will be looking forward to playing on the Emirates GC again.
Third pick this week is Thomas Bjorn who needs no introduction when playing on this type of course and in the wind. Three top 10s here also shows he too likes the place and at 50/1, that's a price not to be overlooked. He played well last week and can build on that this week.
My fourth pick is Soren Kjeldsen @ 150/1. He too has decent form here with a couple of Top 10s also. He missed the cut last week, only just, but he was well down the field in Qatar last year too before finishing 5th in Dubai. He can repeat that form again. He has yet to return to the form he was in back in 2009 but recent events indicate that return is not far away and at these odds he is worth a small interest.
My fifth pick this week is Dutchman, Robert-Jan Derksen @ 225/1 with Bet365. The big hitter is not the most consistent but has a top 20 here and some decent enough results. He started well last week in Qatar also before slipping back. That early new year rustiness will hopefully have been dusted off and with a fairly mediocre field this week, I'll take a chance for a player that has won twice on the Tour but again at smaller stakes.


TIP 1 : 2 pts WIN H.Stenson @ 14/1 Paddypower

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w S.Gallacher @ 60/1 Betpack

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w T.Bjorn @ 50/1 Ladbrokes

TIP 4: 0.5 pts e/w S.Kjeldsen @ 150/1 Betpack

TIP 5: 0.25 pts e/w R-J. Derksen @ 225/1 Bet365


Tuesday, 22 January 2013

Farmers Insurance Open 2013

The PGA moves onto San Diego this week and to Torrey Pines GC for the Farmers Insurance Open, formely known as the Buick Invitational and San Diego Open. There are two courses in play this week for the opening two rounds before the action continues on the South Course, host of the 2008 US Open where Tiger beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff (when Westwood should have won)
The top players seem to prevail here and the honour roll backs that up. So this week, with length off the tee of critical importance and the stats backing up the theory that course knowledge is essential I have finally agreed on my lineup to tackle it this year.

First up is Hunter Mahan who has scored well here over the past couple of seasons with 6th place finishes as well as a top 15 in 2009. He has already dusted off the cobwebs at Kapalua so I expect that rustiness to have been shaken off as he looks to build towards a successful 2013. At 33/1, the odds are a must for someone who relishes the bigger events and with the quality field assembled here I expect him to raise his game once more.

 My 2nd pick this week is Bill Haas. Again, in 8 visits here he has recorded 5 top 20s so he obviously is comfortable on this course. he was tied 4th here last year and can go even better this year. A stack of top 20s on tour last year including a win at The Northern Trust, Haas is becoming ultra consistent since his FedEx Cup win in 2011. Currently 50/1 with Betpack, who are paying 6 places this week, I cannot ignore him given his course form here.

I cannot really decide who to back between Dustin Johnson & Bubba Watson for my final pick but due to course form, the latter gets the nod. He won this in 2011 and seems to be playing his best on the tougher, longer tracks. Seems to be fully content in his life too which always helps the mindset when playing golf.  He finished 4th at Kapalua and will take that as a positive season opener into Torrey Pines this week. 16/1(same odds as DJ) just about value .


TIP 1: 1 pt e/w H.Mahan @ 33/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w B.Haas @ 50/1 with  Betpack (paying 6 places)

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w B.Watson @ 16/1

Monday, 21 January 2013

Qatar Masters 2013

Having gone so close in Durban with Scott Jamieson the week before, the blog quickly established some early profit for the season when Jamie Donaldson duly obliged in Abu Dhabi at 60/1 with Betpack/Stanjames/Paddypower. Part 2 of the Desert Swing tees off in Qatar on Wednesday (not the usual Thursday) to allow the locals to support on Friday & Saturday so if placing bets make sure to do so tomorrow as the event starts Wednesday morning at 3:30 GMT. This event has not been kind to me the past couple of seasons and my notes from last year suggested avoiding this year if weather conditions suggested doing so. However, I feel a bit like a player who has just grabbed the honour on a  220 yd par 3 over water this week as I have received alot of messages and tweets following the 60/1 win with kind words of congratulations. Thanks all and lets hope we can add to the bank again this week.(and make birdie on that par3!). Speaking of twitter, I did ask local Doha PGA Pro, Steven Troup via twitter this morning what the weather forecast would be for the week and Steve informs me that it will be "Beautiful v slight wind fcast for much the same all week. Rough not as thick as prev .." (You can follow me on @birdieclubtips and Steve on @stroup1) . So then, if the wind,as in previous years, does not show itself, the course could be there for the big hitters and therefore the players at the head of the betting must be considered.
 Of the leading players I like Jason Dufner & Martin Kaymer. The latter never really got going in Abu Dhabi but is definitely getting back to his best. He definitely needs to get a low one early if he is to win soon. Dufner has been a bit of a surprise to me on his recent events outside of America with a 2nd in Perth and a top 10 last week. And because of those performances I think he can go well this week now having settled in. At 16/1, he just about gets my attention ahead of Martin.
 I like the chances of former winner, Henrik Stenson this week as well. But for a poor 76 in round 3 last week, the Swede would have been in contention or at least recorded a top 10. He is a recent winner in South Africa and despite poor results here in Doha the past 2 years, he has recorded a win , 3x 2nds and a 7th the previous 5 years. He will be looking forward to it this week and I look forward to getting a run at 33/1 with him.
My third selection this week is Thorbjorn Olesen. I tipped him in Durban 2 weeks ago and he almost made a playoff with Donaldson on Sunday last. He will bring that confidence with him this week and if he drives as well he did last week I'm sure he will make plenty of opportunities to score. At 30/1 also, the Dane makes the staking plan.
I am adding a 4th player this week in the shape of Frenchman, Victor Dubuisson. Two top10s here the past 2 years should mean he likes the course. His performances last year from 20 events saw him make top 10 on 5 occasions and appears to be improving all the time, despite a missed cut (only just) last week and at 80/1, he is added to the lineup for this week.

TIP 1: 2 pts WIN J.Dufner @ 16/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w H.Stenson @ 33/1

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w T.Olesen @ 30/1

TIP 4: 0.5 pts V.Dubuisson @ 80/1

Tuesday, 15 January 2013

Humana Challenge - 2013

The PGA tour leaves Hawaii and returns to the "mainland" and onto California for this weeks Humana Challenge. The format for this week sees a pro-am format to be played over 3 different courses so expect the players to be out on the course for a good amount of time. It's not for everyone, but it would have been nice to see David Duval, who shot that 59 all those years ago on the Palmer Private course when the event was known as The Bop Hope Classic. Sadly, the former World Number 1 has not even been invited this year which is a great shame, but that round should never be forgotten on the final day back in 1999. He took to twitter this week to vent his disappointment, so hopefully that passion and frustration will kick start his career again soon and we get to see him more often back on the tour.
So who are we backing this week? Its early season for most of these players but I have selected two who played in Hawaii, and therefore should have some edge over the rusty ones out there.
My top pick is Webb Simpson at 22/1 with Betpack or Stanjames. The US Open champion played at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, so will be fresh and warmed up for this week where the format should suit his slow style of play. Simpson at this price always has me interested and if he gets the putter going he could go well for us.
My second pick is last weeks winner, Russell Henley @ 50/1. The rookie looked the real deal last week and if he is to continue to impress, we wont be getting 50s for much longer. Last year Johnson Wagner won the Sony Open and followed it up with a runners up placing here at the Humana Challenge so hopefully that trend goes one better agin this time round. Henley could be the star this year on the PGA, time will tell. Hopefully he hasn't been partying too hard this week either. Well worth backing again a player who has won 3 times in 5 starts (twice on web.com tour).
My third pick is a three-figure punt in the shape of Japanese star, Ryo Ishikawa at 100/1 (160.oo on Betfair). Very indifferent form last year but he again will like this format and I am a fan of his swing, his all round game, so much that despite coming in here very fresh for the season its worth a punt at 100/1 e/w.

TIP 1: 1.5 pts e/w W.Simpson @ 22/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w R.Henley @ 50/1

TIP 3: 0.5pts e/w R.Ishikawa @ 100/1

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship - 2013

We were so close to a 40/1 winner on Sunday when Scott Jamieson came up a shot short in the Volvo Championship in Durban. Former Open champion, Louis Oosthuizen proving one too many. Still we wont complain with the place money at 10/1. Over in Hawaii, a level par 3rd round put paid to any chance of Matt Kuchar winning and he finished tied 5th giving us very small place money with 2/3 reduction for the tie. With golf betting, if we can keep the bank tidy with some place returns, the winners will provide the bonus. We were so close last week!
 So, onto this weeks events. The World Number One is in action in Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship alongside Tiger Woods, course specialist, Martin Kaymer, Jason Dufner, Justin Rose and co. The very fact that Rory and Tiger are here would suggest this could be dominated by the big guns so the staking plan will take some consideration before deciding on where to place our money here. Rory comes here with his new clubs. I have to pay for mine but boy what a deal for Rory to use Nike from hereon in. The questions are being asked if he can produce the goods with the new clubs and the simple answer to that is most definitely. Over in the US PGA, the Humana Challenge takes place in pro-am format over 3 courses. Its this type of event that I normally stay away from but we will include a couple of players and great odds who could surprise.
 So for the Abu Dhabi event, course specialist, Martin Kaymer has come in the betting already since yesterday (16s into 10s!). We have missed the boat perhaps but is the 10/1 still value? 3 times a winner, and two seconds suggest you would be mad to leave him out this week. I do like the chances of Justin Rose and when weighing up the options, is 10/1 on Kaymer better value than 16/1 on Rose? With Rory heading the betting at 5/1 and Tiger at 17/2, Kaymer does still give us value at 10s, but only for a win bet. If you do prefer an e/w alternative I would suggest Justin Rose at 16/1. Rose played well towrds the end of 2012 and does tend to play well when back on European Tour. This could be a very big year for the Englishman too.
Speaking of Englishmen and expectant good 2013, Paul Casey has shown recent signs that his game is coming back to near his best. There is probably no better course than here this week to judge exactly where his game is at. Twice a winner here proves he has a taste for this course but two top 25s here in 2011 & 2010 when he was not having a good time of it do suggest that the course will bring out his best. At 30/1 I am happy to include him on the staking plan this week.
My third pick is Jamie Donaldson at 66/1.(60/1 best price for bookies offering 6 places this week, see below). Probably didn't get the result he was looking for last week in Durban but he did hit a lot of birdies there and if he can cut out the mistakes he could go well here as he has done in the past. Following his win at Royal Portrush for the Irish Open last year, the Welshman has moved up a tier and he will be looking forward to this one up against top quality players. 66/1 or 60/1 cannot be ignored.

Just to add, if you do follow these tips and secure a payout, please check out the "Big Bet" in aid of Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) over at http://www.manvsbookie.com/the-big-bet.html, where just the smallest of donations is being pooled to create a big bet in aid of sick children.

Good luck to all.

TIP 1: 2 pts win M.Kaymer @ 10/1- general

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w P.Casey @ 30/1 (Betpack, Stanjames and Paddypower paying 6 places)

TIP 3: 1pt e/w J.Donaldson @ 66/1 or 60/1 (6 places) - I am taking 60/1 with Betpack

Wednesday, 9 January 2013

Sony Open 2013


The PGA Tour finally kicked off on Monday with 36 holes played by the 30 man field in The Tournament of Champions. Those staying on in Hawaii this week won’t have much time “in-between” before they tee it up for the Sony Open at Waialae GC where Johnson Wagner defends his title. A tight track with wind (hopefully toned down) to blow will make shot making a premium this week. Not too sure if this track will suit the favourite and TOC champion , Dustin Johnson, but he has practised hard coming into the TOC that it’s difficult to ignore him to win back to back in Hawaii. he is a proven wind player though so I would not be surprised if he does go in again. With a full field though, I’m looking for bigger odds in the hope that a place return will keep the blog ticking along if not produce a winner. That said, my top pick this week is just about backable on price at 18/1.

Matt Kuchar didn’t enjoy Kapalua this week but he finished it off well. This tight track will suit his game and I’m hoping he will be chomping at the bit to get going on Thursday following the “stop-start” shenanigans at the TOC. The betting is difficult this week as the bookies seem a bit tighter then normal with their prices. I was tempted to leave the Sony Open out of the week’s plan but the 18/1 for Kuchar just about gets a nod. (I would have like 20/1+). He did finish well yesterday and he can carry that form into this one on Thursday and shouldn’t be too tired after 54 holes over 2 days to compete for 4 days this week.

Tied 10th last year here and 2nd in the US Open, Michael Thompson grabs my attention at 60/1 with Betpack / Stanjames. He did miss quite a few cuts last year in his 2nd year on tour but had some notable results. Hot & cold he may be, but the chance is taken that he reproduces the form he showed here last year. He certainly has the ability to turn it on any given week and at these odds it’s worth chancing. Anything lower I would be looking elsewhere.

My final selection this week is Zach Johnson. The former Masters Champion is ideal for this kind of course. He has an early start on Thursday and plays alongside his namesake, Dustin which can only be good. Zach won the Sony Open in 2009, so he too like Thompson will enter here with good memories. A winner twice on tour last year, Zach is in good form and I’ll take the 25/1.

 

TIP 1: 1.5 pts e/w M.Kuchar @ 18/1

 

TIP 2: 0.5 pts e/w M.Thompson @ 60/1

 

TIP 3: 1.5 pts e/w Z.Johnson @ 25/1

Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Volvo Champions- 2013


The European Tour returns to South Africa this week and to Durban GC for the Volvo Champions. 34 players will tee it up and hopefully the champions of Europe will have a better week with the weather than their American counterparts in Hawaii have had. Indeed, at the recent Nelson Mandela Championship held in Durban similar weather conditions reduced the tournament to 36 holes at the Royal Durban GC where Scott Jamieson prevailed in a 3 man playoff to take his first European Title. He will return this week with fond memories of Durban and again this week with rain and thunderstorms forecasted for all 4 days, the Scot may not be as fazed as much as the rest, as it (the weather) served him well in December. With South Africans normally prevailing on this course it’s no surprise to see the betting being headed by Louis Oosthuizen and Ernie Els but I do fancy the chances of Jamieson to go well again this week. At 40/1 with Betpack and Stanjames, in a 34 man field, the price does represent some value for a player who was in great form the end of 2012. He followed up his win at the Nelson Mandela with a T3 at the Alfred Dunhill. He was top 15 at the Dubai Championship and 5th at the Perth International. (He missed cut in both Hong Kong and Singapore though).
Also in the field coming in with sound form and a recent win on South African soil, is Swede Henrik Stenson. Winner of the South African Open and 3 other top 10s in his last 6 starts indicates a real return to form but odds of 15/1 are just a tad short for me here this week especially for one so temperamental. At these odds I need to be confident he can challenge for the title come Sunday.
Looking for some value in the field, Thorbjorn Olesen fits the bill nicely. He has the game to win any given week and if he reproduces the consistency he showed last year he will be contending more often this year. 22/1 is about right and I feel comfortable having a nibble here at that price. He has shown he likes to play at the bigger events and was recent runner up in Scotland at the Alfred Dunhill Links, and top 15 at the HSBC not to mention a great showing at the Open last July. He is ready to step up again this year.
I won’t be backing Padraig Harrington for awhile. He really does need to win again soon to get back to where he should be and competing in all events, but it is refreshing that he is playing here as I feel Padraig does not play enough events despite him saying this week he may be playing too much ! I think he is trying too hard but these smaller fields will suit him and he will enjoy the week with fellow Irishmen, Lowry, Clarke and Hoey. Indeed he will like to company of Paul Casey, Paul Lawrie and Ernie Els, the old stalwarts looking to put a marker down on the younger upstarts. It, however, will be an observing exercize for me this week on the 4 Irish lads. Retief Goosen though could be a surprise package as he tries to regain some form and at 25/1, I would not put anyone off backing him this week.
I will put up a third pick this week in the shape of the aforementioned, Paul Lawrie who simply loves windy conditions. On this basis and with the threat of rain and thunderstorms for the week, the Scot completes the staking plan to keep his recent return to form going. 25/1 in general just about gets my interest as some of the bigger prices on offer don’t instil much confidence for backing. As maybe hinted at above, the camaraderie between the players this week maybe key to good performances and 1999 Open Champion maybe at ease here.
 
TIP 1: 0.75 pt e/w S. Jamieson @ 40/1
 
TIP 2: 1.5 pt e/w T. Olesen @ 22/1
 
TIP 3: 1 pt e/w P. Lawrie @ 25/1

Wednesday, 2 January 2013

Hyundai Tournament of Champions 2013

Friday sees the PGA tour kick off the New Year with a 30 man line-up for the Tournament of Champions, where winners only on the 2012 PGA Tour  qualify to play. One of the few par 73 courses to be utilized on tour, and with just three par 3s on the course, the course wont be easy and with an expectant wind and some rain the weekend, we could be in store for a very good tournament. Steve Stricker is defending champion here but I do like the look of Webb Simpson who has played well here in the past also. Dusting off seasonal activities and weeks without competitive action may be something to consider before throwing our cash away, but some players do tend to play better on particular courses and this should be one such course for Webby. On his debut here last year he finished 3rd, so fond memories should help him again this week. At 14/1 he is worth a punt for me.

Second up this year is Scott Piercy @ 25/1. Had an awfully good season last year and he could be the one to watch for an improvement this year. He had 4 straight top 20s to end 2012 and was top 15 here in 2010. The Las Vegas native will be hoping for a winning start to 2013 and has the ability to do just that here.

My final pick this week is Ryan Moore. With just 3 missed cuts from 24 events in 2012, Moore is showing the sort of consistency that is required to succeed on the tour and he may now feel that the time is right to actually start winning "more". He finished his last 4 events in 2012 with 4 Top 10s and was tied 6th here in 2010. 20/1 is about right and worth a flutter.

(Remember this tournament starts on Friday local time with a Monday finish. Thats 10 hours behind BST.)

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w W.Simpson @ 14/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w S.Piercy @ 25/1

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w R.Moore @ 20/1

2013 - Golf Tipping & Tipster Competitions

Firstly, may I wish all readers of this blog a Happy New Year. I'm gunning for a better year this year and hope to emulate 2010's performance. So much so, I'm aiming to pit myself alongside some online tipsters out there, some of them the best in the business.
As with last year, I will be mostly tipping on the Europeantour with some key PGA events, but each week I will participate in some online tipster competitions through mostly twitter and facebook. (Follow me @birdieclubtips and https://www.facebook.com/Birdieclubtipster)

There are quite a number of them out there and these fellow tipster can actually help the staking plan take shape each week as some top tipsters may be in agreement with my own selections and some weeks they may be off on a different track altogther. The best of these tipping competitions out there undoubtly can be found on Facebook run by the Golf Betting System. Its much more than a weekly tipster comp with great prizes! Its a great forum of betting banter and "knowledge" on who should prevail on that week's course and who is in form to succeed. There will be many views as to who represents value and some will post 3 digit prices and have very solid reasons why the pick is valid. Many of the tipsters who are successful are those that do pick the good value who are most likely to win or place any given week. The trick though is who to listen to ! But as always, I'll be posting my own tips.
On the forum, there's an Irishman living in Korea who will sometimes pick Irishmen & Koreans yet pick others at the right time and his system will work ! A guy in Australia will tip up someone out of the blue regularly too and jump up the leaderboard, and then we have the heavy hitters who think picking one winner a week is too easy...so they do doubles....and do alright out of it too. We have John Daly admirers and Henrik Stenson fans (who gave everyone a real good run for their money last year!). First round leader betting discussion are always worth following, and as for the majors, well the lads at GBS (Steve Bamford & Paul Williams) have a seperate competition for it too. In fact,the forum is so well organized, with the leaderboard updated every week, its no surprise to see it gaining popularity and its always a good starting point each week to see where the good & bad money is going.

The Golf Betting System Punters League is free to join by anybody with a Facebook Account here at http://www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk/punters_league.htm. But check out the rest of the site while you're at it. A weekly podcast on their tips for both European & PGA tours, as well as tour stats makes this a very enjoyable site to visit on a weekly basis when considering your own picks. The lads are improving the site on an ongoing basis and I'm delighted to be able to recommend them to any keen golf bettor out there. But the real benefit of GBS, is the participation in the weekly Punters League and by participation, I mean the banter and the insight to how our fellow bettors react to the scoring as it unfolds each day is excellent and well worth getting involved.


I'll be participating and hopefully will put a good 2013 campaign together. My Results Page will be updated here on the blog whilst the Punters League leaderboard can be accessed through the link on the left which can be accessed throughout the season.

Good Luck everyone.
                                                                                                                                                                               

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