Farmers Insurance Open 2023 - Torrey Pines (North & South courses), California

 Torrey Pines is a tough course ! Usually the top players contend here although we have had some surprise winners over the years and you could say the defending champion, Luke List would be one of them. The roll of honour does include major winners, Jon Rahm, Jason Day (twice), Justin Rose, Patrick Reed,Bubba Watson, Phil Mickelson (three times), Jose Maria Olazabal, John Daly, and Tiger Woods (seven times). All strong off the tee players with Reed & Olazabal maybe somewhat different. 

Its SG:T2G & SG:APR that I'm looking at here and I'm keen to take on hat-trick seeking Jon Rahm who has yet to go win the next week having won the weekend before. I was interested in Tony Finau of course but not at the price so have looked further down the market to analyze the chances of firstly, Gary Woodland who has been cut already in from 100s to 70s/80s. I was also keen on Hayden Buckley who has been showing improvement with a runner up finish in Hawaii LTO and a TOP-5 just 4 starts ago at the ZOZO Championship. Buckley arrives with 4 TOP-20s from his 7 starts this season and although his debut twelve months ago resulted in a MC on a -1 score, he can learn from having played before and outplay best odds of 80/1 - 8 places. If I think Buckley is worth chancing @ 80s here then I have to consider Woodland @ 70s. In his 13 appearances at Torrey Pines including US Opens, he's logged 5 TOP-20s and his US Open win came at nearby Pebble Beach so California can be seen to be good to him.

To complete my staking plan I went back to looking at J.J. Spaun but @ 50/1 - 8 places decided to pass as I was looking for 66s (?) and instead had a stab at Matthew Nesmith @ 150/1 - 8 places. Spaun is playing very consistently with 4 TOP-15s in his last 4 starts. The  32 year old California won his first PGA Tour title last year at Texas and ranks in the TOP-50 for SG:T2G this season but 50s was deemed a bit short despite the consistency of late. It's a mere stab at NeSmith who I haven't followed a great deal to date but he ranks very highly tee to green and approach play and if he can putt this week might just make a run at the places at decent odds.

My 15-man shortlist below suggested I should have considered Thomas Detry, but my tissue seems quite askew to the prices on offer throughout the field so I settled on the 3 selections as per above.

My Shortlist	Bet365 odds (less places)	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Jon Rahm	5	5	5.61	9
Tony Finau	15	13	15.2	21
Jason Day	21	23	25	34
Si Woo Kim	46	36	54	51
Gary Woodland	76	81	98	61
Thomas Detry	81	111	157	81
Taylor Pendrith	71	67	74	81
Justin Rose	51	51	69	81
J.J. Spaun	56	51	64	67
Hayden Buckley	76	81	127	81
Luke List	81	81	127	101
Ryan Palmer	101	101	176	201
Joseph Bramlett	226	251	294	251
Matthew NeSmith	126	176	304	301
Sean O'Hair	501	501	960	301

Selections:

1 pt e/w G.Woodland @ 70/1 - 8 places

1 pt e/w H. Buckley @ 80/1 - 8 places

.5 pt e/w M. Nesmith @ 150/1 - 8 places

Dubai Desert Classic 2023 - Emirates GC, Dubai

 

It was an awful week last week in both California & Abu Dhabi with no returns but we move onto to decent tournaments in Dubai & Torrey Pines, California where Rory McIlroy heads to market in the UAE and Jon Rahm likewise in the US. A ~ 24/1 double on the two will be a popular bet this week I'm sure. ( I did consider it to be honest)

Will they bolt up ? On paper it looks very likely, especially as Rory looks way ahead of the field that offers its next best in the shape of Tyrell Hatton !In Rory's last 8 Dubai Desert Classics dating back to 2009, he is yet to fail to not finish T-10, with two wins in the books in 2015 & 2009. He arrives fresh, but most players are despite the Hero Cup & Abu Dhabi outings and he's definitely a deserved short priced favourite to put down the gauntlet to Jon Rahm in the World rankings!

Having attended this event in 2019 it remains one of my favourites and with such a strong field assembled it has garnered more of my attention that The American Express last week which along with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am to be played next week will be axed from any future betting. They have proven to be money losers for me , I dont enjoy them, and can leave them alone going forward. The Emirates GC & Torrey Pines GC produce better events and this should be a great week whether Rory wins or not. There are a couple of players in each event that caught my eye and I hope they can outplay their odds and take a top-8 if not sneak the "W".

Jason Scrivener is a player I've been interested in a few times and I do think Emirates GC is a suitable course for the Perth native. Just one win in his professional career to date coming at the NSW Open 5 years ago needs to be factored in for sure, but there are signs of some consistency developing and being only 33yrs old he should be settling in nicely at this stage and put a decent season together. He has two T-10s here in 2019 & 2018 and arrives here very much in form having posted 3 T-20s in his 3 season starts so far with a run of 7-18-2 (the runner up being in his native Australia at the AUS PGA) 7th last week in Abu Dhabi was a solid result and he can go well here @ 75/1 - 8 places

Sepp Straka returns to "Europe" having had a solid 2022 on the PGA Tour and he's simply overpriced this week @ 80/1 - 8 places. Winner of the Honda Classic last year on the PGA Tour and runner up at the FedEx St Jude as well as the Sanderson Farms Championship in the autumn, Straka is definetely coming down a grade here this week and will look to serve notice to Luke Donald. His ball striking will be ideal for The Emirates and I expect a solid showing more so having missed the cut last week at Yas Las. That was links, this is "desert" although becoming more parkland as the years go by. The Austrian has the toolkit for the job at hand here.

Wrapping up my staking plan this week with Ewen Ferguson again @ 150/1 - 8 places. He didn't get in to it at all last week but at the price is worth chancing again. Romain Langasque is a player who can be hot & cold but @ 100/1 - 8 places he too cannot be dismissed lightly where he has posted 18-mc-27-20 in his 4 previous visits.

Hurly Long, Yannik Paul, Marcel Schneider & Thorbjorn Olesen were seriously considered as too were Kalle Samooja (12-4-27-16 results here the past 4 years) whilst Min Woo Lee & Adrian Meronk were priced accordingly and so I'll stick with the staking plan below and move onto to the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines starting Wednesday

Selections

1 pt e/w J. Scrivener @ 75/1 - 8 places
2 pts e/w S. Strake @ 80/1 - 8 places
.5 pts e/w E. Ferguson @ 150/1 - 8 places
.75 pts e/w R. Langasque @ 100/1 - 8 places

Abu Dhabi Championship 2023 - Yas Links, Abu Dhabi, UAE

 

The DP Tour gets going in 2023 with a Rolex Series event in Abu Dhabi, UAE to be played at Yas Links. It's a decent field too as Tyrell Hatton surprisingly heading the betting market. He's not for me here. This could be an interesting event in that many of the players haven't competed since before Christmas whereas most of the leading players dusted down last week at Abu Dhabi GC for the Europe vs GB&I "Hero Cup" - what Seve's name is not restored to that event I don't really know but thats where golf is these days, money power dictates! Speaking of which,some of the LIV "rebels" are contending this week;Westwood,Reed, Poults and Henrik Stenson to name a few.

It wasn't a great week for Shane Lowry last week but I do expect him to go much better this week. That said, I'm looking at other players down the market that I think can go well here and put it up to the Ryder Cup hopefuls in attendance.

I was keen on Bob MacIntyre here but just like last week, the 33s on offer yesterday are gone; Ben Coley has tipped him up and he's now best price 25/1 ! That feels like I'd be giving up 9 pts although my tissue was 28s (as mentioned on the post last week, perhaps I do need to pull trigger early Monday afternoon on my "top-3 shortlisted players in anticipation they could be cut, that is of course, if opening prices show some value)

My Shortlist	BET365 Odds	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Shane Lowry	15	15	17.7	21
Tommy Fleetwood	13	13	13.9	26
Thomas Pieters	23	21	26	26
Robert MacIntyre	26	26	26	29
Seamus Power	26	29	28	31
Ryan Fox	29	29	32	41
Victor Perez	34	34	35	41
Sam Horsfield	61	61	83	61
Ian Poulter	76	76	108	67
Scott Jamieson	76	81	118	81
Eddie Pepperell	76	81	118	81
Alexander Bjork	91	81	127	91
Yannik Paul	91	91	137	61
Adri Arnaus	71	71	88	61
Richard Mansell	91	81	127	67
Gavin Green	101	91	167	81
Thorbjorn Olesen	91	91	137	81
Andy Sullivan	126	126	216	111
Ewen Ferguson	101	101	137	67
Jason Scrivener	101	126	206	101
Julien Brun	71	67	108	81
Edoardo Molinari	126	151	196	111
Guido Migliozzi	91	81	88	81
Jeunghun Wang	176	201	333	126
Marcel Schneider	101	126	147	111
Rafael Cabrera Bello	126	126	164	101
Dan Bradbury	201	201	402	126
Marc Warren	501	501	960	351

28-man shortlist ( 

From the shortlist above, I was secondly drawn to MacIntyre's compatriot, Ewen Ferguson @ 90/1 - 8 places with Bet365.

Rafael Cabrera Bello may not be a prolific winner, nor is he getting any younger, but he has a phenomenal record in the Abu Dhabi Championship having posted finishes of 4-2-12-11 in the last 4 years. The Spaniard won the Scottish Open at Dundonald Links, won the Omega Dubai Desert Classic (2nd also) and was 4th at The Open Championship in 2017 behind Jordan Spieth. He likes a links course, likes a bit of sun on his back and loves coming to the UAE.  125s available but I like Bet365's 110/1 - 8 places

I was very tempted by Victor Perez & Ardri Arnaus here but the Frenchman is too short for me at best price 33s so Arnaus gets the nod despite concerns over his driving. If its improved on from the end of 2022, he can contend frequently throughout 2023 and the 70/1 - 8 places was taken.

Lastly, I'm keen to have an interest on Jeunghun Wang here this week @ 160/1 - 8 places. The South Korean returned to gold last year having served 18 months in the military as a mandatory requirement for South Koreans and he produced some decent results since on the Asian Tour despite missing the cut LTO at The Australian Open. 3rd & 5th in Egypt & Jeju Island from his 6 starts since return are encouraging notwithstanding the field strength but confidence breeds confidence and the 27 yr old should be keen to kickstart his golfing career having expressed his dislike of his 18 month military service and the thrice Europeantour winner can call on his victories at a windy Mauritius & Morocco as well as Qatar to put a good week together and announce he's back!

And very lastly! Dan Bradbury looked very comfortable winning in South Africa in December and I think there is plenty of value @175/1 - 8 places 

Selections:

1 pt e/w E.Ferguson @ 90/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w R. Cabrera Bello @ 110/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w A. Arnaus @ 70/1 - 8 places
1 pt e/w J.Wang @ 160/1 - 8 places
0.5 pts e/w D. Bradbury @ 175/1 - 8 places

The American Express 2023 - La Quinta, California

 Collin Morikawa let us down two weeks ago by losing from a 7 shot lead during the final round but Si Woo Kim made amends last week to wrap up the Hawaiian swing by  overcoming Hayden Buckley to prevail @ 40/1 and put the blog into an early profit for the year ahead.

I've never really taken to this event over the years and smiled at Jon Rahm's outburst here last year but with a new shakeup in schedule in events on the PGA Tour there could be a change in attitude in the players approach to the vents they commit to. Rahm may have one thing on his mind at the moment and thats to emphatically let everyone know he is the number one in the world and he'll be keen to take this one out. Given the two late Sunday nights in Hawaii and my lack of interest for this event I won't be getting too involved and so have just gone with the following:

My Shortlist	Bet365 odds 5 places	Best Odds	Best Exchange	My Odds
Patrick Cantlay	11	12	12.6	17
Tom Kim	23	23	26	21
Tony Finau	15	15	16.9	21
Harris English	91	111	127	67
Rickie Fowler	81	91	118	56
Adam Hadwin	61	67	93	56
Beau Hossler	201	176	326	61
Taylor Pendrith	81	101	137	61
Ben Griffin	151	126	265	101
Luke List	126	126	216	126
Adam Long	251	251	490	111
David Lingmerth	226	251	314	151
Ben Martin	301	301	451	151
Nate Lashley	151	151	206	101
Wyndham Clark	81	81	116	201
Max McGreevy	1001	1001	960	501

16-man shortlist

Selections:

.75 pts e/w B. Griffin @ 125/1 - 8 places
.75 pts e/w L. List @ 125/1 - 8 places
.75 pts e/w W. Clark @80/1 - places