Wednesday, 29 June 2011

Open de France 2011

Despite being one of the best tournaments, prizemoney & prestige wise on the tour, this week's Open de France at the recently appointed Ryder Cup venue, Golf de National, lacks the quality field that one would normally associate with it. Thats because of the Scottish Open taking place on a links course which most Open contenders will now use to tone their game for St. Georges. The World Number 4, Martin Kaymer does play though and the 2009 winner here has already expressed a likeness for this course this week. At 10/1, he may be a bit short but I cant get away from the Dusseldorf man this week. Some tipsters are putting up Peter Hanson, and whilst I do rate Hanson's chances this week, I believe there is better value in the 10/1 on Kaymer than there is on 14/1 about Hanson. Kaymer led going into final round last year (won by Jiminez), won the year before so clearly he likes the course. Ok, this season hasn't gone according to plan but we are entering the best few weeks of the tour so far. Last week, Kaymer battled back from +2 at one stage in the opening round to finish -2 after those 18 hloes, put 2 good rounds together in rds 2 & 3, before returning a mediocre par rd on Sunday. That type of golf suggests that he is about to click and will be my top tip this week with Victor Chandler Golf (who are still paying out as winner should your outright bet pre-tournament score a hole-in-one throughout the tournament.

Joost Luiten finished 3rd last week, and 5th at the Italian Open before that.He has 5 other top 20s to his credit in 2011 from 11 starts so has shown steady progress this year. He is playing well and this weeks course will suit him. He is a winner in waiting and can deliver this week should Kaymer slip up. Again 33/1 with Victor Chandler Golf

My third selection is for Alex Noren @ 50/1 with Victor Chandler Golf also. Has been playing well, has won recently, did better than expected at Congressional and will be in confident mood following the past 2/3 months work. Has the game to suit here as length wont be as much a factor, but accuracy will be which Noren possesses.

I will have one eye on Romain Wattel this week so see how he fares but no investment as the youngster gets to grip with the tour.

TIP 1: 2 pts Martin Kaymer to win @ 10/1 Victor Chandler Golf

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w J.Luiten @ 33/1 Victor Chandler Golf

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w Alex Noren @ 50/1 Victor Chandler Golf

Day 1 Threeball at Open de France- Luiten to score

Joost Luiten is playing awfully well lately, suggesting he is not far from a maiden win. He goes out tomorrow with Alex Cejka & Matthew Zions and is a real value bet to outscore his partners. Good opening round is key this week, the afternoon start will help him also. Need to be accurate on this course and not necessarily long but Luiten is making low scores and should do well here.

1 pt @ 1.91 with Bodog Sportsbook

Sunday, 26 June 2011

Stenson to finish well Sunday - 2Ball Betting

I madelight of Henrik Stenson's form when going in to the US Open but the Swede has suddenly found form and despite slipping back yesterday he did show that old grit by making birdies at the end of the round to keep pace. He can outscore local hope Marcel Siem today too.

1 pt @ 1.80 Boylesports

Wednesday, 22 June 2011

BMW International Day 1 Threeball Value

One threeball that I like that has some great value is the 8:00 (10th Tee) match involving home player Alex Cejka, England's Simon Khan & Denmark's Soren Kjeldsen. Alex is past his best although has gone well before in this tournament but I dont fancy him at all this week, which same can be said for Simon Khan who has only made 3 cuts from 10 starts this year.That leaves the Dane, and he has shown recently that he is getting back into form and this course will be very welcome to him this week as he has finished in top 20 the past 3 years. He is taken to win this tomorrow @ 2.38 with William Hill

BMW International 2011

First of all,congratulations to Rory McIlroy, the 5th Major won by an Irishman in recent years and in some style too.Just sorry I didn't back him! He is taking a well deserved break now before reappearing at Sandwich where he could go in again quite easily so exciting couple of months coming up, which is welcome here as the blog strives to get some profits coming in.Martin Kaymer will be happy to be back in the Motherland for this week's event and whilst I am a great fan of the World No. 3,I am struggling to see him win this week although his form is not that bad as some suggest and it wouldn't surprise me that he does click this week but 10/1 is too short to invest in him.
I've been looking over my selections the past few months and have concluded that, yes, I've put up some outsiders that were really longshots but I've also put up selects that have won only a few weeks later when I abandoned them, not to mention missing out on Alex Noren AND Thomas Aiken whom I have put up many times. I did abandon them due to the poor run(mine) so this week I have decided that I have to stick with Ross Fisher. He missed out on playing at Congressional having fallen out of the top 50, but he is not far off finding the form that I still believe will see him win a major.He missed the cut in Wales last time out and I didn't see him going well that week at the time but I do see a fresh Ross Fisher being all fired up for the coming months and if the putter does get going he will be a regular on the summer leaderboards. He finished 2nd here last year to a fast finishing David Horsey so has course form and I will take the 30/1 with Boylesports.
Rory's Major success on Sunday may just be the spur for good friend Shane Lowry to go well this week. The Offaly man has produced some good results lately and would have been disappointed to have missed the cut in Maryland,but the course in Munich should suit his driving and he too is not far away from winning soon. Best odds with Betpack
I am tempted to have a small interest in Niclas Fasth,a former winner here,who has lost form the past couple of seasons but did show some fine play in Italy (finishing 6th) last time out. But as stated at the top of this post, I have refocussed on trying to find the tournament winner as opposed to throwing in a good "outsider" and have a dilemma now in choosing between Danny Willet, 66/1 Boylesports and another Irishman, Peter Lawrie at 100/1 with William Hill. Both are consistent performers and are much better than their odds suggest. I will split my stakes to include both. Niclas hasn't done enough for me to have confidence in another good outing for this week

TIP 1:1 pt e/w Ross Fisher @ 30/1 Boylesports.

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w Shane Lowry @ 50/1 Betpack

TIP 3: .5pts e/w Danny Willet @ 66/1Boylesports.

TIP 4: .5 pts e/w Peter Lawrie @ 100/1 William Hill

Saturday, 18 June 2011

The "Master" has the 'Noh"how to win his match tonight

Very tempted to back Zach Johnson tonight in his pairing against Brandt Snedeker @ 2.10 Victor Chandler Golf but Snedeker has shown great major form in the past, has also won recently on the PGA Tour and therefore is quite capable of performing on "moving day". Johnson, a former Masters Champion and probably the best putter on tour could be McIlroy's biggest threat the weekend alongside our tip, Matt Kuchar and is probably a value bet @ 2.10. However, I do fancy Charl Swchartzel to see of Seung-Yul Noh @ 1.62 with Betpack, puerly because of experience, not doubting the Korean's potential but with tricky pin placements, the expierenced Master Champ should play slightly better.

Good Luck

Bank : €106.77
Bet : € 5.34

Friday, 17 June 2011

US Open Day 2 Threeball

Rory McIlroy produced one of the great US Open rounds yesterday and all eyes will be on him to see if he can go on now having lead 3 of the last 4 Majors before succumbing with horrific scores (80 in rd at British Open and 80 on Sunday at The Masters). Rory has prepared well for this week and I believe he will have the bottle for another good round today and can account for Mickelson & Dustin Johnson again.
1pt McIlroy to win Day 2 Threeball @ 6/4 Betpack

Thursday, 16 June 2011

US Open Day 1 Threeball Betting

The "draw" for the opening 2 rounds of this year's US Open is interesting with some amazing threeballs. The World's top 3, Westwood, Donald & Kaymer will accompany each other, there is an All Italian 3ball(Molinaris & Mannesero), an All Spanish 3ball(Jiminez, Garcia & Quiros) and all Swedish 3ball in Stenson,Edfors & Jacobson. Would love to have seen 3 Irishmen go out togther, Rory, GMac & Lowry but sure thats the way it goes.

The Swedish 3ball though represents value for me, as,off the bat, Stenson wont be doing much on Thursday bar swearing! No form at all and gets into this by the fact he won the Players in 2009. Edfors has been playing well in Europe but this is different setup this week and is too inconsistent for my liking leaving Freddie J @ 2.38 to take the spoils tomorrow. Has been playing well lately (top 10 last week) and will relish this course and he will be well up for the Swedish match!

TIP: 1 pt (5% of bank= €5.23) on Freddie Jacobson @ 2.38 Betpack

Wednesday, 15 June 2011

US Open 2011

The second major of the year gets underway on Thursday just outside Washington DC, where the US Open was last hosted in 1997 at Congressional GC, won by Ernie Els. The US Open this week though surely is the most open Major in many a year, made not just by the absence of Tiger Woods but perhaps the fact the winner could come from anywhere which Martin Kaymer spoke of the other day. I dont agree exactly that the winner could come from any of 30 - 40 though, but it would be surprising if the winner triumphs having shown no form coming into this week. As usual for the Majors, I am taking 8pts in my staking plan. I really hope that Lee Westwood does it this week. The course is ideal for him, but the greens could be his downfall. That said he has been ultra consistent in Majors the past few seasons and should have won in New York 2 years ago. I think he can prevail this week and he is chosen as first pick to finally capture that elusive Major.
There are 2 Americans that alot of punters will be including in their staking plans and I'm no different. Simply because they have been consistent lately and the win always follows form. Hunter Mahan thrives in the big events and has the game & patience to capture the title on Sunday. His putting has been excellent this season and if he can get into contention come Sunday will relish the challenge.
Matt Kuchar is coming back into the form that he showed towards the end of 2010, drives the ball great which is paramount this week, but its his bogey stats that impress me suggesting he can be patient to stick it out with pars and be there come back nine Fathers day.
Retief Goosen has been off the radar for quite awhile but a top 10 last week at the St Jude will have the two-time US Open Champion in confident mood for this week, has a great record on fast greens with the flatstcik and with the greens set for a reading of 14 on the stimpmeter, no one is better for putting stats than "The Goose".
My outside bet is Webb Simpson! Not always a good move to be backing debutants in a Major as severe a test as this one but Simpson has been producing some solid displays this year, drives the ball well. Can get a bit nervy when in contention but you never know, he may just surprise those who feel he lacks experience

TIP 1: 2 pts WIN Lee Westwood @ 12/1 bet here with bWin

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w Hunter Mahan @ 22/1 Paddypower

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w M.Kuchar @ 25/1 Paddypower

TIP 4 : .5 pts e/w Retief Goosen @ 60/1 Paddypower

TIP 5: .5 pts e/w Webb Simpson @ 100/1 Paddypower

Note: Paddypower paying 6 places as are Boylesports Victor Chandler Golf

Saturday, 11 June 2011

Threeball & Twoball Betting

I have decided to commence threeball betting as mentioned before. I have decided to use a sepeate bank for this as I see these bets being valued in a different light than than each way betting on tournament outcomes. therefore the starting bank will be just €100 and ALL bets will be 5% of the bank. (this is 1pt)

To kick off I have a strong bet on Peter Whiteford to beat Victor Dubuissson in todays twoball at 12:05 @ 1.91 Betpack

Wednesday, 8 June 2011

BMW Italian Open 2011

Francesco Molinari & Matteo Mannesero headline their home Open this week at the Royal Park GC,the third year for the venue to stage the Italian Open. Very low odds available for the two star players and whilst they are the standout players in the field, added pressure to deliver at home can sometimes count against fancied players. There is a bit value in the betting though.With a lot of rain forecasted over the weekend it could be quite an event that would see players able to cope with such conditions prevailing.The three I do like this week are all young guns who have the game to take on this course. Rhys Davies is in form and can go close here, as too should Joost Luiten who is more than comfortabe playing these type of courses in tough weather conditions. My third selection is the young and upcoming Frenchman, Romain Wattel, his power and exquisite putting game suggests that he will be winning events soon and this course could be the one to see him open the account.

I was contemplating top 10 and threeball betting this week, but have decided to leave this to the US Open next week. One standout threeball tomorrow sees Anthony Wall available at 6/4 to outscore Niclas Fasth & Philip Price. I have yet to decide how to include these bet types in my staking plan.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w Rhys Davies @ 45/1 (Betpack)

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w Joost Luiten @ 45/1 (Betpack)

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w Romain Wattel @ 60/1 (Betpack)