Thursday 11 April 2024

The Masters 2024


2 pts E/W J. Thomas @ 35/1 - 8 places
1 pt E/W T. Olesen @ 200/1 - 8 places
1 pts E/W C. Kirk @ 275/1 - 8 places

But.......c'mon Rory !! 

Wednesday 20 March 2024

Valspar Championship 2024 - Copperhead GC, Palm Harbor, Florida

I found little value in this week's PGA event - well worth revisiting after the event to see how the shortlist fared and where my tissue varied to actual SP etc 

I'm going with 3 only here, really looking for a TOP10

Selections (Total outlay 6pts)

0.5 pts WIN M. McNealy   @ 65.00   / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 6.60
0.5 pts WIN K. Yu              @ 170.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 13.00
0.5 pts WIN A. Novak        @ 200.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 14.50

Singapore Classic 2024 - Laguna Golf Resort, Singapore

 We're up to 229 selections and counting after Xander Schauffele whimpered out at Sawgrass on Sunday last ! Think the potential Masters winner shortlist will be quite small in 3 weeks as there does not appear to be too many "fighters" on the PGA Tour at present who want to win a gold tournament. 

We move onto The Valspar Championship at Copperhead this week where the "snake pit" will sort out the winners from the also-rans whilst the DP Tour returns to Laguna Golf Resort in Singapore.

It may be a decent field in fairness but I'm again struggling to find real value, mostly due to my own tissue perhaps being way out of kilter but as alluded to a few weeks ago, the approach now is to back win on the exchange and take TOP-10/TOP-20s and see can we get some coin back into the bankroll.

PlayerMy ShortlistBET365 OddsBest OddsBest ExchangeMy Odds
Shane LowryCurrent Form101010.313
Matthieu PavonCurrent Form151518.115
Rasmus HojgaardMulti151519.119
Tom McKibbinMulti19212323
Jordan SmithStrategy26263326
Thriston LawrenceStrategy23263123
Zander LombardMulti31314129
Richard MansellCourse34343936
Ewen FergusonCurrent Form31344531
Alejandro Del ReyCourse34413951
Alex FitzpatrickCurrent Form56517846
Paul WaringCourse56517856
Frederic LacroixCurrent Form61617451
Grant ForrestCourse716711881
Jesper SvenssonCurrent Form67678381
Ugo CoussaudCurrent Form71819867
Daniel HillierFancy818112767
Johannes VeermanCurrent Form10110117691
Aaron CockerillCurrent Form8191157101
Guido MigliozziCurrent Form10111117681
Ockie StrydomCourse12612619667
Gavin GreenCurrent Form11110117681
Haotong LiCurrent Form91126176101
Max McGreevyCurrent Form151176225111

My 24-man shortlist

From the shortlist, there are players I just know don't have it to challenge come Sunday but they continue to be there or thereabouts and it's the bet that they can turn in some TOP-10s that keep me interested. The shortlist will need to have 20-30 players going forward if looking at the TOP-10/TOP-20 markets anyway. Tom McKibbin may prove to be a winner at some point but I don't see value at all in his price here when compared to market leaders Lowry, Casey, Pavon and indeed Rasmus Hogaard. However, Shane Lowry is yet to show his worth when a short priced favourite but he is in great form just 3 weeks out from Augusta and he's hard to ignore totally but at the price presents no opportunity here. Ugo Coussaud joined The Birdie Club non moving day list recently but I'm willing to give him one more go here. It really is beyond a joke now to see my selections nearly every week go from inside 2 or 3 shots off the lead after 36 holes hope come Saturday evening....Coussaud owes me now! Not that Max McGreevy does however but he's a very interesting runner here. Max has plenty of experience overseas having spent a season on the PGA China Tour before earning his Korn Ferry Tour card and subsequently winning (then losing) his PGA Tour card. Not so sure Laguna will suit him off the tee but I have to play him anyway where he could surprise.
I was keen to reduce the numbers in y staking plans going forward but thought there was merit in taking Richard Mansell on @ 30/1 - 7 places as well as Frederic Lacroix @ 60/1 & Daniel Hillier @ 80/1 .

Missing out are Hojgaard,Migliozzi, Li & Ferguson who were seriously considered.


0.5 pts WIN U. Coussaud @ 110.00   / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 10.50
0.5 pts WIN M. McGreevy @ 300.00 / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @ 18.00
0.5 pts WIN R. Mansell @ 38.00        / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @   4.80 
0.5 pts WIN F. Lacroix @ 60.00         / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @   6.80
0.5 pts WIN D. Hillier @ 130.00        / 1.5 pts TOP-10 @  10.00