10 To Follow at Big Odds in 2017

As per the post below that I wrote back in 2014, I want to look again at potential players that are likely to produce their first win on tour and in doing so at big odds in 2017! From the list of ten in the 2014 post below, three have since won, including multiple wins for Pieters and Grillo.

In 2016, from the 46 Europeantour events the average winning price was 60/1(based on average Tuesday pre-tournament prices).Omitting the four Majors and Final Series winners, the average only slipped to just under the 60/1.

There were 11 winners priced 100/1 + in 2016.
There were 11 winners priced 100/1 + in 2015
but we could count on one hand the 100/1+ winners in each year from 2010 to 2014!

So, do we have potential breakthrough players to follow in 2017 that can win at decent odds? Given that the younger players moving from amateur and the Challenge and other lesser tours can take some time to adjust to life on The Europeantour, it may prove beneficial to follow those that have a couple of seasons under their belt and that have produced a number of TOP10s, and do so when odds suggest some value. The aim of this page therefore throughout 2017 is to track and follow a group of selected players and see if following them at the required price can reap some profit. Rather that setting the threshold price this time round at 100/1, I'm happy to take a minimum price of 60/1 on the players below

My Players to follow for 2017 are:

1. Matteo Mannasero
2. Nacho Elvira
3. Ricardo Gouveia
4. Benjamin Hebert
5. Paul Dunne
6. Dylan Fritelli
7. Eddie Pepperell
8. Ben Evans
9. Clement Sordet
10. Johan Carlsson

2017 Tracker for the "10toFollowin2017" can be found here

Post - June 2014

We all have a favourite golfer that we would like to have a punt on every time he/she tees it up irrespective of price, don't we? Don't we? Yes? Not always I suppose, but we'd like to! Regular punters will know the sheer frustration to see a player being backed week after week only for the punter to lose patience, drop him/her from the next week's staking plans and ....yup, they go and bloody well win! So then why not back them very time until they do win? How many players are in the thoughts of the punter each week and then how long should the punter stick with them? Are most Tour players destined to be just journeymen, making cuts and establishing a nice earner for themselves without really being ambitious of winning titles and playing in Majors? They'd all like to win for sure, but how many have resigned themselves to the fact that they probably will never win and that their realistic goal is to make 10 TOP20s for the season ? Punters probably have a good idea which players fall into this category, the  "Will never win " category, and therefore those players are omitted from their win or each way staking plans each week.

But with so many young talents coming onto all the tours at the moment, surely there has never been a better time for the punter to take advantage and identify players that are destined to go places. For me, the PGA is becoming increasingly difficult to find the winner each week, there are so many top players capable of winning any given week, much moreso than on the European Tour. But with that in mind, surely there's more value on the PGA Tour ? Perhaps there is, but what's "value" to one punter may not be to another. For long term punters though, its about taking the price above the probability of the players chances of winning. And how do we decide the probability ? Well thats down to individual assessment again, one which will no doubt differ from punter & tipster alike.

 Over the past few seasons we've seen many a player get into some form without winning, often producing a number of TOP10s before eventually getting that all elusive win. The trick, I suppose, is when to stop backing that player. Or how long to persevere. I had backed Billy Horschel a number of times last year on the PGA Tour @ 110/1(twice) 100/1 & 80/1. He dropped to 33/1 for the Zurich Classic and I deemed that price not to be value and therefore abandoned him. Yup...he won that week and I was kicking myself. Yes, the perceived value had gone but had it really? He was in terrific form, much like Graham DeLaet has been this season only slightly better. But would I back DeLaet in a similar lineup @ 33/1 now ? No I wouldn't, so was I right not to back Billy 12 months ago? On the European Tour, Francesco Molinari has produced very consistent results but hasn't won in 2 years. He's often chalked up between 20/1 & 33/1 !!

 Many readers of this blog know I have a liking for backing certain players regularly (Ross Fisher, Thomas Aiken, Martin Kaymer, Alex Noren and more recently, Scott Jamieson, Felipe Aguilar and Tommy Fleetwood). On the PGA tour, Webb Simpson, Dustin Johnson, Bill Haas, and Harris English are becoming favourites also. But most of these will usually be short enough in the betting, but sometimes can represent decent value. I've always advocated each way betting but recently I've started questioning whether there's any merit in it, especially when quite often dead heat rules for the final placing are applied, often reducing the  returns making the bet really pointless. Moreso if the winner was one of the favourites. So is there any mileage in identifying players that are usally overpriced (in my opinion) by the bookies and backing them long term ? I think so. And is there any mileage in identifying the "journeymen" who regularly make cuts and quite often finish TOP20 ? Are they worth backing each time for T20 ?

Well let's try an experiment right here on this page !

On the basis that a European Tour player will play approx 12 -15 events between now and November, and that quite a number of these events are biggish ranking events for the Race to Dubai, can we find just one winner at a certain price threshold to make a profit from backing each of the players on our list every time they tee it up? My list contains 10. If all 10 play each of those 12-15 events, that means at 1 pt per player stake, I'll stake somewhere between 120-150 pts(maybe less). Of course, they may not be the same price each week, and their price may drop below my perceived "threshold price", so my thinking is should they not meet the minimum price then it becomes a no-bet or they are scratched from the staking plan. If that "threshold price" or minimum price is 100/1, we should really be backing this player quite often if we think he is a winner in waiting. Is 10 too many ? Not enough ? If all 10 play each week week we have a 10pt outlay but should we also play the TOP20 or TOP10? If the 10 players are considered good enough to win soon, then surely they will have a few TOP10s ? Backing them all means we are faced with a 20 pt outlay which may become expensive should the wait for that win go on.

I'm going to kick off with WIN bets only for the time being but will record a what-if scenario for TOP5(place), TOP10 & TOP20 all based on 1 pt per bet. I'm suggesting backing these on the Betfair Exchange, where the prices are bound to be much better,but it also gives us the option to trade out if we wish should the player do well early in the tournament. For the purposes of this experiment though, I won't...the aim is to see if these 10 can deliver a win at odds bigger than 100/1.

So then who do I think can win in the next 6 months or indeed over the next 12 months at a price in excess of 100/1 ?

In no particular order here are my 10 to win soon @ 100/1 or more

1. Thomas Pieters
2. Adrian Otaegui
3. Scott Jamieson
4. Tom Lewis
5. Emiliano Grillo
6. Kevin Phelan
7. Tyrell Hatton
8. Felipe Aguilar
9. Maximilian Kieffer
10. Eddie Pepperell

If you have any other players in mind that you think can and will win soon on the European Tour, I'd be delighted to hear your thoughts. Just make a comment below and I'll add them onto this page. If there are players on my list that you believe need to either be at a much higher minimum price, also please do leave a comment. It's all about ones perception, being subjective, but in the end its about beating the odds.

Starting at The Nordea Masters, all 10 players are entered to compete of which 9 meet the min price. (Felipe Aguilar is omitted from the staking plan @ 70/1 best price)

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