Czech Masters 2014

We have a new course to contemplate this week again on the Europeantour, but I'm sure the field won't mind, having enjoyed what appeared to be a very successful Made In Denmark Open last week on a relatively new course to the majority. They won't mind the location either as leisure time will be well spent in the beautiful city of Prague. This is a new event although the Czech Open was last held in 2011 where Oliver Fisher was victorious. It represents an opportunity for those on the fringe of qualification for the Ryder Cup team to gain an automatic spot if they can win here and that means we have strong contenders in Jamie Donaldson, Stephen Gallacher, and Joost Luiten.

By all accounts the course will play long with some very short rough stuff although accuracy for approach could be key. I'm inclined to look at those that score well on long courses and can convert chances. The three market leaders are undoubtedly the ones to beat but favourites don't always win, not to mention these three that have hardly been regular winners. I'm going to chance two players this week here and I'm sticking to one of those I selected last week, Felipe Aguilar. The Chilean was joint leader with Thomas Bjorn after the first round last week, played very well but as the next 3 days turned the event into a windfest, he dropped..or should I say nosedived down the leaderboard. He didn't putt well in the wind but I am happy to ignore that as I did get enthusiastic hearing his interviews , stating that he had taken time out to recharge the batteries, played little golf and concentrated on some chill out time. He came across very relaxed and energized....the outing last week may have just warmed him up for this week. He is still available @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes and I have to keep the faith with him here.

Tommy Fleetwood has gone off the boil lately, in a big way actually having missed the cut 6 times in his last 8 events! These came after back to back TOP10s but the 23 year old may be suited to Albatross GC where the Par 5s could be to his advantage.

He has an afternoon tee time Thursday with an early start Friday and if he does put a decent first round together on day 1 he may just take advantage early Friday starting on the 10th tee by grabbing early birdies there and at the 12th (both par 5s) to gain some momentum. That's the plan anyway !  Tommy is best price 55/1 with Skybet


Staking Plan :

1 pt e/w F. Aguilar @ 50/1 Ladbrokes
1 pt e/w T. Fleetwood @ 55/1 Skybet

Made in Danmark Open 2014

The European Tour heads to Denmark for the first time in over a decade as the Himmerland Golf Club plays hosts. Ian Poulter was the last to win on the European Tour in Denmark. The Backtee course here at Himmerland was used on the Challenge Tour in 1995 where Thomas Bjorn won his first professional title. With really no course form to go on this week so, and because the course also underwent extensive renovation since Bjorn won here, my focus will turn to those in decent form of late.

Thomas Bjorn will no doubt go off the favourite and the 7300 yard par72 course looks like a course that suits players that can handle some wind which we know Bjorn, the 24th best player in the world right now, can. Fellow countryman, Thorbjorn Olesen has not had the best of seasons although he put in a decent effort at the PGA Championship and he may take this opportunity to kick start his career, but he’s no value here.

 
Of the market leaders, Chris Wood may be the best pick over improving Marc Warren and with both @ 30/1 in the market, its tempting. There are two interesting players to look out for this week who have been winning regularly on the Challenge Tour. They are Moritz Lampert and Andrew Johnston. The German won last time out to claim his third win on the CT and the Englishman has won twice and produced three further TOP10s in his last five starts. Home hope, Lucas Bjeeregaard is attached to the course so should have that local knowledge but at best price 55/1 I'd rather chance others.


My Selections:

0.5 pts e/w Damien McGrane @ 80/1 Betpack

McGrane went very close in Russia last time out, indeed he was probably a little unlucky not to win had David Horsey not chipped in on the 71^st hole and catch him before seeing it out in the play-off. With the Irishman securing his card at this stage of the season, I expect him to be more relaxed, and on a track like this, he is not without a chance to put that Russian disappointment behind him. Accuracy off the tee could be an important attribute here and the Meathman knows how to handle the wind as it’s likely to blow hard on the North Jutland.

 

0.75 pts e/w Felipe Aguilar @ 55/1 Bet365

Chilean, Aguilar won on tour almost four months ago and arrives in Denmark well rested having not played since early July where he finished T24 at the Scottish Open. He hasn’t threatened to win again since his success in Singapore but his last two outings are encouraging. He ranks highly on tour for driving accuracy (8th) and GIR (4^th) which compensate for his lack of length off the tee. Should he get the flatstick warmed up he can contend at a decent price.

 


0.75 pts e/w Moritz Lampert @ 55/1 Betpack

Up and coming German star, Lampert has been in prolific form on the Challenge Tour winning for the third time in Azerbaijan coming from behind in the final round to secure his promotion to the European Tour. The 22 year old will now buddy up on tour with his mate, Max Kieffer and he could be worth siding with this week while the form is hot. He is definitely a player to watch out for and and at decent odds in his first outing since automatic promotion he's worth a punt . He is slightly preferred over Johnston. The price at 55s is just about fair.

 

0.5 pts e/w Daan Huizing @ 125/1 Boylesports

 Dutchman ,Huizing was briefly mentioned in my Monday preview in the free weekly edition of Golfing Weekly, where I mentioned that he could be included on the final staking plan pending price. My tissue had Huizing chalked up @ somewhere between 80/1 - 90/1 and following the withdrawals of Bello and Fisher, I think the 125/1 on offer is real value and cannot go un-backed. It hasn't been the best of seasons for him but he was 12th last time out in Russia, was 12th at the Open de Espana in May and since that result Spain, he has made 5/7 cuts earning just over €80K. That form has seen him get to 133rd on the Race to Dubai and more importantly get closer to securing his card for next season. It's in these events of this quality of field, where a good performance is required to earn those all important points, and on a track like Himmerland which it  appears to be (windy, short, accuracy requirement), he's not without a decent chance of scoring well again and move closer to safety. He won twice on the Challenge Tour last year against many in the field this week in Aalborg, including a win at the Northern Ireland Open at Galgorm Castle.


Incidentally, this years NI Open takes place again at Galgorm Castle, it's free to attend but if you fancy winning a spot in the pro-am check it out here.

 
 Staking Plan (4.5 pts/units)

 

0.5 pts e/w Damien McGrane @ 80/1 Betpack

0.75 pts e/w Felipe Aguilar @ 55/1 Bet365

0.75 pts e/w Moritz Lampert @ 55/1 Betpack

0.25 pts e/w Daan Huizing @ 125/1 Boylesports

PGA Championship 2014 - Valhalla GC, Kentucky

Valhalla GC will host the PGA Championship for the third time this week following Tiger Woods playoff victory over Bob May in 2000 and Mark Brooks’ playoff win in 1996 over local boy, Kenny Perry. Perry coincidently plays here this week having won the senior’s 3M Championship last Sunday. The 2008 Ryder Cup was also staged here which the Americans won with ease.

The course is a Jack Nicklaus design and following Woods' & May's 72-hole score of -18, the course has undergone some changes. It’s been lengthened for sure but contrasting reports exist as to the severity of the rough, but some players’ comments on the course layout, suggest that accuracy will be the key to success. For me, I’m keen to side with players that are in decent form recently and have the required driving distance stats that seems to be a requisite to win at Valhalla. Having said that, I am mindful that, although this major has produced so many first time major winners, significantly more than any other major, 13 of the last 15 PGA Championship winners had at least one win in their prior 20 events. 20 events can stretch back over some amount of time but I do think it’s important that a major winner these days has to be a “winner” and one that is doing well on the order of merit. Despite the three major winners in 2014 having won a major previously, 15 of the 19 major winners previously were first time winners, so I’m not afraid to look at a possible first time winner again this week. With the Bridgestone results in, it’s interesting to note that in the seven years that it has been played the week prior to the final major, the eventual winner of the Wanamaker Trophy finished no worse than 22^nd in the WGC. Perhaps the sample range is too small but it lends to the notion that bringing you’re a game into this week is essential. I’ve included a couple of players who finished outside that 22, but only just!


It’ll be tough to take on Rory in the betting this week should the expected weather materialize (thunderstorms etc.) but winning three on the spin, is not an easy feat. Justin Rose can vouch for that of late, but given that length off the tee could be key here, Rory is a worthy favourite. Those recent PGA Championships also showed that Driving Distance was key, as too was GIR & obviously excellent putting stats. These all point for a Rory success. Favourite backers surely will be on, but as an Irishman, of course, I’d love to see him win it, but from a betting perspective, I think Rory has created some value for me further down the field

Patrick Reed may not be everyone’s cup of tea, and that’s good for us golf punters as his prices are often bigger than they should be.
He produced a fast finishing performance at Firestone on Sunday and that augurs well for this week, and this very confident, two-time winner on tour this season will be relishing Valhalla as he arrives on the back of his latest efforts of 4-mc-26-11.

We’ve seen unlikely victories in this particular Major with Beem, Micheel, Toms, Brooks, and Yang all prevailing in recent years, so it can be done.

Reed is not without a chance and I’m happy to invest to see how far he can go. He's available at 75/1 with Bet365 who are paying 6 places

Just outside the Top 25 last week in the WGC was Jimmy Walker. The FedEx Cup leader has won three times on tour this season and ranks high for driving distance and GIR stats.

Two TOP10s in the Masters and US Open in 2014 suggests that Jimmy’s major form can see him contend once again here on a track that will suit.
 8 TOP10s from his 22 starts shows the level of consistency throughout the season and he’s sure to be up there throughout the week.

Jimmy Walker is available @ 60/1 with Skybet also paying 6 places

A lot of comparisons have been made between Valhalla and Muirfield Village and former champion, Rich Beem has been tweeting photos of the course on twitter declaring the back 9 holes to be a replica of sorts of Muirfield Village. I hope so, as I really think Hideki Matsuyama can go well this week. The Japanese star won the Memorial Tournament earlier this season and finished T12 at Firestone. In his last seven starts he’s won, produced one TOP10 and finished no worse than 38^th.  He’s value for me on this course even though he has come in from 66/1 to 50/1 in the market over the past 24 hours and he's preferred over Charl Schwartzel who I looked long and hard at before passing up @33s.

Lastly, as this major is also affectionately called "Glory's last shot" I'm taking my last shot this week on Harris English.
Harris English is one of those on tour that could become a regular winner. His recent form is mixed, although he’s won this season and delivered a further seven TOP10s. A disappointing final round last Sunday saw him slip down to T31st but at 125/1 or better, he’s worth a look. Ranked in TOP10 for GIR and averaging around 300yds off the tee, his game should suit Valhalla and he shouldn't be that price.
 

Staking Plan: (8 pts/units *all paying 6 places)

1 pt e/w P. Reed @ 75/1
1 pt e/w H. Matsuyama @ 50/1
1 pt e/w J. Walker @ 60/1
1 pt e/w H. English @ 125/1

World Golf Championship Bridgestone Invitational

 

 

Defending Champion : Tiger Woods (seeking his 9th win at Firestone)

Invitational by the International Federation of PGA Tours

No Cut - 76 players in the field (Dustin Johnson has withdrawn)

 

The Bridgestone comes, as always just one week ahead of the year’s final Major, the PGA Championship, (to be played at Valhalla, Kentucky) and tends to be a real strong indicator as to who will win the PGA Championship that following week. Since 2006 up to 2013 every PGA champion has finished within the TOP 25 here at Firestone CC. Last year’s PGA Champion, Jason Dufner finished T4th at Firestone. Whilst this week may prove to be a more of a pointer for the following week there are trends and form at Firestone to be aware of. If Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial Tournament is fondly known as “Jack’s Place” then Firestone CC surely can be dubbed “Tigers Place” as Tiger Woods, the defending champion simply loves this course having won on it a record eight times. (Even playing in the dark!) The best in world golf normally prevail here and debutants struggle. The “Monster” South Course will need to be respected if wanting to succeed this week. Players arriving for this year’s instalment through the various qualifying criteria set down by the International Federation of Tours, will need to be in form if they expect to win, because in previous years the eventual winner here indeed arrived on the back of some strong results in their season.

 

 

Justin Rose failed to record a hat-trick of wins at The Open following his wins at Royal Aberdeen and Congressional but The Open hasn’t always been kind to him. Firestone though, suits much better. Justin was T5th here in 2012 and T17th twelve months ago. In the past 12 weeks, Rose has played ten tournaments, producing two WINS, three TOP10s and four TOP25s. He’s in some of the best form of his career and is Rory’s main challenger at present.

 

 

Keegan Bradley has shown his liking for Firestone with victory in 2012 followed up with a T2nd to runaway winner Tiger Woods in 2013. He was TOP15 in his debut the season before and that was after he held the 36-hole lead. A slow start to the 2014 campaign hasn’t deterred Bradley and he’s really beginning to put a nice run together of late. Maybe he just loves playing golf in July & August? A TOP20 at Hoylake came off the back of T4th at the Greenbrier and another T4th at The US Open at Pinehurst. Winner of the PGA Championship as a rookie in 2011, Bradley has shown he is a player for the big events and especially in the WGC strokeplay events. From his nine starts in the WGCs, he has finished in the TOP10 four times with four further TOP25s. He may even be a nice price this week.

 

Jim Furyk must be respected again this week. Jim is currently the 10^th best player in the world at 44 years of age, and whilst he hasn’t won since the Tour Championship in 2010, he has been knocking out consistent results of late including six TOP10s this season. With three TOP10s here the past six seasons and arriving on the back of a 4^th at Hoylake before his Canadian Open efforts, Furyk must come into consideration again this week. He may not have won last Sunday but he had put himself in contention yet again and he can maintain the momentum into this week. I favourited a tweet the other day from Jamie Kennedy (@jamieonsport) where he shows Furyk's 52 week H2H vs the TOP100 players in the world on a WIN-LOSS-TIE as 838-229-45. That's a win ratio of 75.4% the best in world golf at present. He has just 75 to contend with this week and I'm happy to stay onside.


Staking Plan : (8pts)

2 pts WIN J.Rose @ 20.00
1.5 pts e/w K.Bradley @ 25/1
1.5 pts e/w J.Furyk @ 22/1