Dubai World Championship 2012

The season’s finale is finally upon us and the top 60 players on the European Tour have rightly qualified for the World Championships to be played on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. This is the 3^rd instalment of the Race to Dubai showpiece where Alvaro Quiros & Lee Westwood have won the previous two years. Big hitters are well suited to this course but the approach shots on undulating greens will be vital too. It’s a top field so expect a top tournament to complete a rather successful one for the European Tour that saw European players dominate the World Rankings and regain the Ryder Cup in spectacular fashion. If you are reading this post today and wondering where I’ve been, I had been quite busy at work and spending more and more time with my family at the weekends. My 3 & 5 year old girls aren’t into golf…yet!

 I do hope to kick on and get the blog updated on a weekly basis going forward, its not been a great year tipping wise(I’m putting this down to work commitments- sure it couldn’t be my fault) but the new season will be full of winners. In the meanwhile don't forget I can be followed on twitter at @birdieclubtips . The aim is to finish this one with a bang!

 

            So, onto this week’s event itself and the players will tee it up on Thursday with the lowest ranked player in the R2D standings hitting off first culminating in the last pairing of Peter Hanson & Rory McIlroy. The latter rightly goes off the tournament favourite after a fantastic year in which he won his second Major despite a missed cut last week, which is to be taken with a pinch of salt. He will be up for this here no doubt at all. But he is not backable at 6/1 for me. With a reduced field (just 57 playing) there is some surprising value to be had and as I write some of that value has disappeared since yesterdays prices but nonetheless some value still remains.

Last week in South Africa, Martin Kaymer produced solid golf the weekend to finish 3^rd and there is evidence that a real return to winning ways is imminent. He was 22/1 yesterday but has come into 16s today. At 22s I was keen but will pass at 16s regrettably. Westwood at 14s for me would be better value than the German, proven winner in this field and of course, winner here in 2010. At slightly better odds are Justin Rose & Peter Hanson at 20s which again are better value than Kaymer’s, purely because of recent form. In fact, Hanson has real form going into this and has top results on this course the past couple of years too, but despite holding McIlroy off recently at the BMW Masters in October, I have reservations if he has the bottle to see them off again come Sunday afternoon for a win. Instead I’ll put up my first tip in the shape of a non-European who finished well last week in his native homeland. George Coetzee. He can be backed at 30/1 which just about holds an interest for me. The big hitting South African has improved throughout the season and is due a big one. He certainly is one to watch out for next season and over the New Year back on home soil, but the course will suit him and he makes my staking plan this week.

Second on the list is one of my old favourites, Alex Noren who has proven that these type of courses plays into his hands. Strength is his main asset but approaches to the greens when on song can be deadly and if he hits it well this week he could go under the radar. I backed him yesterday at 90.0 on Betfair but he is widely available at 66/1 in the bookies and this for me is just too big in a 57 man field. He comes well rested so hopefully his opening round playing alongside Danny Willett will see him open with a score to build on for the remainder of the tournament.

I was undecided before writing this post as to whether to side with Thomas Aiken or Shane Lowry for my final tip. Of course, we are betting folk, and rather than make the decision, I have decided to back both of them. The Irishman got his first professional win last month in Portugal and is playing exceptionally well. He had top 10 here before so likes the place and is great each way value at 60/1. (If you are following these with me on Thursday, amazingly they go out one after the other- would be nice if I was there). Thomas Aiken hasn’t really produced the goods that I was expecting the past 3 years or so but can be awfully streaky. He also finished well last week (top5) but has a tendency to play better at home but also shows a tendency to play well in the big events, so I had to include him too. He can be backed now each way at 80/1.

 

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w G.Coetzee @ 30/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 66/1

TIP3: 1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 60/1

TIP 4: 1 pt e/w T.Aiken @ 80/1

KLM Open 2012 - Hilversumsche GC

The Dutch KLM Open is on again this week at the Hilversumsche GC just outside Amsterdam where tournament specialist Simon Dyson goes off as defending champion seeking a 4th title in 7 years, and his 2nd title at the course having the other 2 at the Kennemer GC. Its hard to look past him too with that sort of form in Holland. His past 3 starts saw him finish 27th at Crans and a MC at Gleneagles and a MC at the USPGA. Last week might just be the outing he needed before coming here. He seems to play well on this type of course and a general 25/1 across most bookies will ensure that I keep him onside, and I hope he gets a lift being back on Dutch soil which obviouly has served him well over the years and prevail once again come Sunday.

My second pick is Martin Kaymer at 20/1. Winner 2 years ago, the German will be anxious to get some form ahead of the Ryder Cup especially after a disappointing season. Again, he doesn't have to travel too far from Dusseldorf up to Amsterdam. He missed the cut here last year after an opening 74 but ran away with it the year before winning by 4 shots in the end. I'm a big fan of Kaymer and when 20/1 is on offer its hard to resist despite the form, but he comes rested not having played since the USPGA. In fact over the past couple of months he has played just 6 events, missing the cut in 3 of them including the BMW International in Cologne. He will be very keen to go well this week now that the Ryder Cup team is finalized and restore confidence not just for himself but his captain, Jose Maria Olazabal and his team mates. The price is like a carrot dangling in front of me and I can't ignore it. let's hope he sees this week as a real chance to lay down his marker for Ryder Cup.

My third pick is Ross Fisher. Again he is in some sort of decent form lately and has good record here also. Tied 11th 2 years ago and tied 6th in 2010 not to mention winner in 2007 on the Kennemer Course, he too like Dyson obviously likes playing here. Fishers driving and iron play will be a big advantage here this week and if he gets the flatstick going he could win this one and at 33/1 with Betpack, he too, cannot be omitted off my list this week. I was going to put up Shane Lowry who I also believe will be suited by the course and despite the odds of 45/1 I have taken the Englishman on course and toournament form in much the same vein as Dyson & Kaymer.

FedEx Playoffs- The Barclays 2012

Its business end of the 2012 PGA Tour season now, with the FedEx Cup playoffs commencing in New York with The Barclays Championship on Thursday. Mega bucks up for grabs for any of the top 125 qualifiers. Of course, those ranked lowest now need to move up the standings (to top 70) to make it to next week but they will find it tough at Bethpage, host of the 2009 US Open where Lucas Glover prevailed over David Duval. The Black course will suit the big accurate hitters this week and will ultimately go against those struggling of late. That said, the 2009 US Open did produce a lot of surprises but I don’t expect the same this week as far too many are in excellent form as of late. One of those is recent PGA Champion, Rory McIlroy and this course will be his cup of tea. He finished top10 in 2009 too! But 7/1? If I was a big punter then maybe yes, and to be honest, I had contemplated half of my staking plan on Rory this week….but its not the value bet for me….there are some players at decent odds that can win this week.

Top of my list is the recent WGC winner, Keegan Bradley. Its been a fantastic 12 months for the 2011 PGA Champion and following his win at Bridgestone, he finished 3rd at the PGA this month, emphasising the form he is currently in. 25/1 for me is great value considering the form he is in and he could be the one to watch over the 4 playoff events. He didn’t play the 2009 US Open but he has played a lot of golf on this course in his amateur days, therefore he should know his way round it. A must pick for me here.

Second pick this week is Adam Scott. I am hoping the playoffs will come as a distraction of some sort following his heart wrenching Open exploits and that he will see this as a new challenge. The course should be right up his alley and if driving well and produces the sort of form he has shown this season a win here could be the perfect tonic to end the season on a high. 25/1 also available and the Aussie is sure to give me a run for my money.


Final pick is outsider, Kyle Stanley. He looked a real prospect earlier this year before going off the boil but the course could suit him also. His recent form has suggested he may be coming back into form, despite missing the cut at the PGA. I’m gonna take a punt at 150/1 with Ladbrokes who are paying 6 places this week

USPGA Championship 2012

Tomorrow, the final Major of the season tees off on the Pete Dye designed Kiawah Ocean Course in North Carolina where last weeks winner at Firestone, Keegan Bradley defends. This Major is rapidly becoming the 2nd hardest of the 4 Majors to win, but is still keeping a trend in being the Major that produces a first time major winner. That said Americans are still dominating despite Harrington, Kaymer & YE yang prevailing in recent years. I like both of the statistics- first time major winner and American to boot! To be honest I really want to back Dustin Johnson but the 33/1 on offer last Monday is well gone and there are alot of tipsters on him this week. Simply this course suits him and he has great Major credentials in past couple of years and will win one soon. But I 'm gonna be either brave or stupid and sidestep to oppose all the other tipsters seen as I have missed the good odds (the joys of busy workload during the day). Instead I'm siding with me new "mate", Jason Dufner. he should be coming here as defending champion but was pipped by Bradley but he has proven this year that he can contend when in the mix and is my top tip this week to win it @ 25/1. Another top 10 ten last week, he is in incredible form and his accuracy from tee to green will serve him well here.
 The wind and the fact that 10 holes run along the coastline suggests that a links player of renown will do well. I want to back GMac again. He didn't play well on Sunday at the Open and his final day stats in Majors is poor thus giving me doubts, but one thing Graeme does have is confidence, and buckets of it. If he gets a good start and gets into the mix he may be a bit more patient this time round than he did in Blackpool last month. I'll still take him again at 40/1.
 Third pick this week is Matt Kuchar @ 35/1.Ultra consistent performer who is Major Champion in waiting and this could be his week. If he gets his putting going he will definitely be up there and he can break his duck and keep the trand going for a win in the PGA as his first Major.
 Fourth pick is Webb Simpson, the US Open champion. have to include him, he is the in form player alongside Dufner and simply cannot be left out and the 45/1 on offer is good value in my book.
 My final pick for this week is to pick a big hitter as this is a big long course with genrous fairways. Its a toss up between Colsaerts, Woodland & Garrigus and I'll go with Robert Garrigus who has shown some decent form this season. He is 100/1, I'll have a nibble !

Wishing Padraig Harrington best of luck though. I really hope he contends this week, perhaps he was expecting it all to come together at St. Lythams and he will be quietly confident playing on this course in the wind with accuracy being a premium. Must be some money for him though as he was available Monday at 75/1 but I note he's down to 50s now ?