Tuesday, 15 June 2010

US Open Pebble Beach 2010

Its a return to Pebble Beach for this years US Open, a full 10 years on since Tigers amazing 15 shot victory when last played there. That sort of fact would normally trigger me to look at the betting without Tiger market but such is the fall from grace in Tiger's world he has to be taken on. With Channel 4 set to broadcast revelations over a possible love child on British TV on Thursday night, Tigers focus will be disturbed and he may struggle to make cut here.
Also, unlike last year,where the players who went out late Thurs and early Friday, got a huge advantage, the weather forecast is so good with wind at a minimum this week, players will be at a level playing field. That said, the groupings are interesting. Rory McIlroy out with Ryo Ishikawa with Tom Watson to put manners on them, Adam Scott with Ogilvy & Allenby (all-Aussie), Goosen with Furyk & Cabrera (all recent winners), Watney with Mahan & Barnes, Duval with Lehman & Curtis (British Open winners),and Westwood with Els & Woods. I like three of these groupings- the All-Aussie grouping should mean nerves will settle quicker and conversation should be pleasant, all 3 should go well. But the Goosen group has me very interested. Its a great group for the South African looking for his 3rd Open. Having just returned from injury at last week's St Jude Classic where he posted 3 68s after +2 opening rd. Playing partners are crucial in majors and in the shape of Furyk & Cabrera he wont be sidetracked but focussed on scoring and at 50/1 (Ladbrokes) paying 5 places its 1 pt e/w on a player who has the patience and putting game to prevail here this weekend. I have been watching Ricky Barnes a bit the past few weeks and his ball flight may suit this course and I can see him going well. He has posted 5 top 10s this season from 16 starts and its this market that I will have 1pt @ 9/1. At 100/1 and paying 6 places .5 pts e/w also is invested with Betpack as i like the grouping, Watney is leading scrambler on Tour this year and Mahan is big game player so the group should bring each other along. Ernie Els has to have a chance, two tour wins this season already although disappointing Masters but I would have preferred him not to be playing with Tiger but he's seen it all and he shouldn't be distracted by South Africa's exploits back home in the World Cup (Uruguay may end their involvemnet on Friday). Lee Westwood should be favourite- outstanding form at present, winner last week and great US Open form. I want him to win it but at 12/1 I don't think its great value. (always felt this was his best chance of major - the US Open)

Of the others, Lefty should be up there, has great record on the course, pressure to win back to back majors though could tell. Stricker has the game but has he got the bottle come Sunday? Its 40 years since a European last won, Lee Westwood could end that just like he became the first European to win in Memphis last week, but I dont think Europe's cream are playing particularly well at present apart from Like Donald but this tournament and course is not "the Plodders" forte so I am overlooking him. Padraig Harrington showed no side effects from recent surgery in his opening rd last week, BUT..he then just slipped further and further down the field. But he is the type to have refocussed for the major this week and could contend but I dont think he is near his A game just yet. Of the Europeans I think can surprise is Graeme McDowell. Its a hard call to say who is the most confident- Poulter or McDowell but the Portrush man performs great stuff when in confidence/form, and he certainly is, following his win at Celtic Manor 2 weeks ago and Pebble Beach will suit him. ( I would back Graeme if bank would allow extra bet @ 66/1).


Bank balance after Open de Portugal + 119.12

US Open Selections:

1 pt e/w E.Els @ 28/1 (Boylesports 6 places)
1 pt e/w R.Goosen @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes 5 places)
.5 pt e/w R.Barnes @ 100/1 (Betpack 6 places)
1 pt win TOP 10 Finish R.Barnes (Betpack)