Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Value at Sawgrass 2011

As the post title suggests, I am switching my interest this week to the "5th Major", the Players Championship. Three main reasons for doing so are;

1. Iberdrola Open in Mallorca doesn't have any value in it whatsover from a betting point of view and the bookies seem to have priced this up by grouping the top 25 contenders in a 12/1 - 50/1 bracket. Paul Lawrie might tempt some people at 25s(he did tempt me slightly) but not enough victories for the Scotsman would suggest he might go close without actually winning.
2. The Players Championship has a top quality field with real betting value on offer
3. Some of my preferred bookies are offering 6 places for e/w backers.

So my first selection this week is Hunter Mahan, who simply relishes the big events, has shown some recent good form despite recording a double bogey on the last hole to drop out of a top 10 finish at Quail Hollow. His game also suits this tight course and I honestly don't see Woods,Mickelson or Donald winning this week so the 33/1 with Paddypower has to be taken over the 40/1 with Victor Chandler Golf simply because of the extra placing on offer.
My 2nd tip is the ever accurate Martin Kaymer. Augusta does not suit his natural fade off the tee but the Dusseldorf native will be at home here, is very accurate and possesses one of the best short games there is. The 35/1 on offer with Betpack, also playing 6 places, is taken ahead of some 40/1 on offers only paying 5 places.
Third tip is Florida based, Zach Johnson who may stop the international list of winners at Sawgrass continuing. Accuracy is a given with Zach, not to mention his short game and if the putter is hot this week he will be up there. A former US Masters Champion will know how to stay patient, which is vital on this track. 66/1 with Paddypower again is exceptional value.
It not quite a major, but it is fondly called the 5th Major by the golfing peers so for that reason I am selecting a 4th this week in the shape of Ross Fisher. I admire this player greatly and firmly believe will win a Major. Has the cool head required to do so, comes here nice & fresh and the 125/1 is a steal. I considered top 10 for this bet at 14/1 but with the 6 places on offer, have decided to chance the e/w @ 125/1 with Paddypower

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w H.Mahan @ 33/1 Paddypower

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w M.Kaymer @ 35/1 Betpack

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w Z.Johnson @ 66/1 Paddypower

TIP 4: 1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 125/1 Paddypower

There have been quite a lot of tributes on various blogs and golfing press throughout the world paid to the late Severiano Ballesteros who passed away last Saturday and who was laid to rest today in Spain, so perhaps I'm not of the same calibre for paying similar tributes but Seve earned alot of respect throughout his golfing career and touched many hearts so I think it appropriate for me to mention my thoughts on his passing here. He was simply one of the best players we ever saw, his imagination on a golf course was remarkable and he will be sorely missed. I had the fortune to see him play here at Portmarnock GC but its when marshalling at the European Open at the K Club that I had exchanged a "good morning" with the great man that I realized what a great family man he was as he played football with his kids admidst a fit of laughter, but the time he took out to acknowledge fans and those around him without being flustered or aggravated was refreshing to witness, and I for one will miss his wit and expert analysis on the game. May Seve rest in peace