Its a traditional Links-type course, it will suit big hitters, and those that scramble and stay patient, as ever at a US Open, will do very well. You could argue that GB&I players should like the course and conditions as well as the men from down under!
The weather forecast is interesting as winds are forecasted - which is great...it means the course will play hard and fast and we will have a competitive US Open of old, where winning scores will be par upwards to -10.
The cream usually rises to the top at the US Open and recent winners back this up with Koepka, Johnson, Spieth, Kaymer, Rose and McIlroy all winning. The cream this week should rise again, Shinnecock will be a real test and it's highly unlikely a player will rock up here and produce the goods and spring a shock result. We have too many in form and of those, they are winning their fair share of tournaments with just the odd surprise winner. Mind, the first time MAJOR winners is a thing now but the US open is a different beast and a return to original US Open setups may see a returning past champion prevail.
My shortlist settled on 19 players and of the markets leaders that I deemed not to be of value, it's Rickie Fowler & Jason Day I fear the most to my finalized team consisting of Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Jason Dufner, Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer. Oosty, Grace and Adam Scott are decent prices for a bold showing too and are certainly trading options come tee-time.
I've plumped for Justin Rose again (having backed him at Augusta earlier this year) @ 17.00. He seems to be in one of those ultra-consistent phases at present, was a winner in Dallas last month and followed up with a T-6 at Jacks place LTO. 11 Starts this season on the PGA tour has yielded 2 WINS and 7 TOP-10s. Rose won at Merion in 2013, a course which tested all players and finished TOP-15 at Pinehurst in 2014, a course not too dissimilar to Shinnecock. Rose is a much better player than 5 years ago and it's inconceivable that he has yet to add to his sole Major title. Its been a mixed bag for Rose at the US Opens, with 6 MCS amongst his 12 starts, though he also has a win,2 further T-10s and a further 2 T-20s.
Spain's Jon Rahm has been backed @ 24.00 already but for blog purposes here I'm putting him up at each-way @ 21.00 with 8 places a begging. The Spaniard is a bit under the radar this week but he needn't be as his form is ideal.4th at Augusta this year shows he has the mental game for a Major and his win at Portstewart 12 months ago emphasizes his ability on a links course. The big hitting Spaniard was last seen completing a TOP-10 at "Jack's Place" and arrives nice and fresh. Winner of the DP Tour Championship, its clear that Rahm is a a big-time player, has experience on these green types. If he can keep his emotions in check for what he needs them for, he has a real shot of clinching the first of what we all expect to be, multiple Majors. He has a suitable threeball for the opening two rounds in that he plays with his compatriots, Sergio Garcia & Rafael Cabrera-Bello. World Cup chat should keep them relaxed!
Jason Dufner @ 151.00 each-way is added to my staking plan this week having surprised myself on just how decent his US Open form has been. A Major winner already, Dufner certainly has the tee to green game to compete at Shinnecock and despite missing the cut the last two events, he should be motivated to perform well at another US Open where he has already a brace of TOP-5s (Merion & Olympic) as well as a TOP-10 at Oakmont and a TOP-20 at Chambers Bay. If striking the ball as well as he can, he may have the required patience to get himself in to a position for the weekend and from there he can hold his own. He's a value punt at these odds and playing with Brandt Snedeker is a positive.
Former US Open Champions, Graeme McDowell and Martin Kaymer are added to the staking plan due to their liking of these type of courses and tournaments. I've fancied the German chances here ever since the season began but as alluded to in the BMW PGA Championship preview, I would have liked Kaymer to have had produced some more encouraging results of late. Still, signs are there that a return to form is not that far away. Its unbelievable that its 4 years since his last win, the US Open at Pinehurst! 8th in Italy LTO might have reassured him that his game is in decent nick and he too has a favourable threeball in playing alongside Stenson & Scott,all three players adapt at playing links. This could be a very interesting threeball over the opening two days and I'm hoping they carry each other along. Kaymer's price is too big for a MAJOR @ 151.00, full stop. Decent start and he's in Major mode!
G-Mac certainly isn't a bomber and may be could be considered a non-contender here but I'm loathe to leave him out especially as he is a fine exponent not just of links-style golf but of the bump and run shot, which could be a useful tool to have this week. 5th & 12th on his recent visit to Europe for the Rolex Series events has him in good form ahead of a US Open which will forever bring fond memories for the Portrush native and it'll be no surprise to see an upturn in his game the next 12 months as he prepares to be at home for the 2019 British Open. A bold showing in a MAJOR has to be a goal and he has the strategy and nuance to work his magic at Shinnecock as he sees the course as a true traditional US Open course, a course that is to his liking! In a recent interview he stated that "there's nothing here to upset me" and if he finds fairways and the course drys out, GMac has the experience and guile to post a number here, a number low enough to perhaps, at least, see him finish in the TOP-8 if not better. At 200/1, I'm happy to pay to find out.
Selections
Total - 14 ptsTake-up is slow over at Playon DFS for the US open this week - Big Overlay in their $10,000 game - sign up here, use code "B1RDIE" and avail of some free entries.
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