Wednesday 19 August 2020

Wales Open - Celtic Manor, Newport,Wales

 We stay at the Celtic Manor for the rejuvenated Wales Open, not held since 2014 on the European Tour.

I kept the faith the past few tournaments with the same stable although I was too quick to drop Wil Besseling from the staking plan despite alluding to Celtic Manor requiring strong GIR stats which the Dutchman excels in. He duly opened up last week with a 67,  which would have given an opportunity to balance the book somewhat by laying something off during the end of that round.With golf betting in general, I find with the downswings involved, it can become frustrating to see someone you tip up and back one week, drop the next and he then goes in...you'll see this often, but it pays to keep the faith, as I call it, for a time whilst he's showing form as there was a reason to zoning in on that player in the first place.. Of course, we all have that golfer we fall over the cliff with, not to mention racehorse etc...its the thing about sports betting, we are drawn to it initially through our passion of the sport, yet once we get into long term betting, we have to try and extinguish the emotional aspect of it. With golf betting, the winners don't come too often, unless you are Ben Coley in 2020, so it should be easier to control the emotional aspect of it as opposed to daily horse racing. There may be an upcoming tournament where the course does not suit and if that's the case, he can than be dropped. I have consoled myself in that Min Woo Lee did pick up form and had a decent enough opening round too last week. However he faded the weekend. Moreover, Wil Besseling put in a TOP-20 performance, whilst Alexander Bjork all but for a slow start on the Thursday did play decent enough to finish T-27th. The "stable" are close, haven't been close enough for more returns but as we stick to the same course this week, I feel it's worth sticking to Bjork based on the same logic as last week's. Bjork is available Wednesday morning @ 40/1 with 6 places. Lucas Bjeregaard is playing awful at present; he was taken at a price last week, is bigger this week but its a no for me until he can show some form again.

The UK Swing did though have quite a number of similar fields, and it continues to do so with certain players showing some sort of consistent returns. As with all tournaments, there is an abundance of value in the field, the problem though is you cant get them all in the staking plan and the level of competitiveness in world golf has certainly increased the past  5 years or so, that its becoming much harder to pick the price big winner as they are becoming less of occurrence. I tried to adapt 3 years ago and put more effort in to T-10/20 markets but I concluded having had a run of bad results that the staking plan would need review if pursuing any further. At the end of the day, sports punters do need some emotion and that means some winners and no better feeling than landing a few nice double digit or even triple figure winners such is the case sometimes in golf betting. The win outright bet is here to stay.....its whether to change the pre-tournament approach to putting more emphasis on in-play betting that I need to look at and just take win only before the off and then bet accordingly in play. This game is getting harder for sure. All that said, I'll conclude my staking plan with Nicolas Colsaerts @ 70/1 - 6 places. He finished a lowly T-63rd last week but having had the run out I expect him to improve and perhaps challenge on Sunday.


Over at the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the Northern Trust, I do like the look of DJ's price as well as Rory's but have opted for the former. I do think Tony Finau has some unfinished business this season and was keen to have some interest but the 33s are too short for me. As with the PGA Championship, I am going to chance Mark Hubbard @ 200/1 - 1/5 10 places as well as Adam Hadwin @ 130/1 - 10 places

Selections (Wales Open & Northern Trust)

1.50 pts e/w A. Bjork @ 40/1 - 1/5 6 places

1.00 pts e/w N. Colsaerts @ 70/1 1/5 6 places

2.00 pts e/w D. Johnson @ 20/1 - 1/5 8 places

0.25 pts e/w M. Hubbard @ 199/1 - 1/5 10 places

0.25 pts e/w A.Hadwin @ 129/1 - 1/5 10 places


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