Tuesday 26 January 2021

Dubai Desert Classic 2021 - Emirates GC, Dubai

 

Having had the opportunity to walk this course during the tournament in 2019, it has naturally become one of my favourite events both from spectator point of view and a betting one. It's good to have an interest! Whilst still labelled as "desert golf", the Emirates GC has matured a lot since the inaugural event back in 1989 when Mark James tasted victory, and I'd suggest any reference to it being a links-type for certain players changes to a parkland, par-72 averaging 7300 yds. Yes, the sand off the fairways and rough areas requires the desert type play, but the maturity of the course these days promotes a more accurate game and if you are spraying it here, you simply wont score. The Course although set within the Jumeriah Beach Resort, can be exposed to winds, so those that good in those conditions can go well here.

 The Roll of Honour shows that the cream rises to the top here with a who's who of world class golfers, Ryder Cup stars and Major winners coming to the fore. Seve, Ernie, Monty, Tiger, Freddie Couples, Bjorn, O'Meara, Stenson, Rory, Jimenez, Cabrera-Bello, Willet, Garcia and DeChambeau have all tasted success at the Dubai Desert Classic, whilst Stephen Gallacher (twice) continually shows us that this is his favourite course, Eamon D'arcy, Mark James & David Howell have weighed in when at the top of their games and making Ryder Cup teams.


Collin Morikawa tees it up this week as the star PGA Tour player handing over the baton from last week's, Justin Rose and the PGA Champion will be hoping to do better than JT and first make the cut. Somewhat surprising that he skips the Farmers at Torrey Pines to play here (we assume the lure of $$ enticed him here instead) as Torrey Pines will host the US Open later this summer. How he goes remains to be seen but represents no value in the market whatsoever and he's passed off without too much deliberation. Tyrell Hatton quite rightly goes off favourite here and he demands closer attention having won 4 times on different tours in the past 15 months. As Stevie-G proved here many times, scoring on the par-5s can make a huge difference and if "the angry golfer" scores as well on them here as he did last week, he will be hard to beat for sure. Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Matt Wallace stay in the UAE for this and of the three perhaps Wallace would be the preference. He'll be happy with last weeks on course performance as well as the "angry golfer" video that was well received and he can call on his course form to approach the week with great confidence.

I am still checking to see what the status is with last week's selection, Thorbjorn Olesen who did not travel last week due to covid-19 test and subsequent isolation requirement but he's on the entry list still today (Tuesday) suggesting he has travelled. I take a chance that his symptoms are mild on that presumption and therefore is 100% fit to go. I did like his price for Abu Dhabi but here at slightly shorter I like his chances more as he has shown very good course form. 4 TOP-10s in his 7 visits is encouraging and whilst his court case is postponed until December this year, putting his personal troubles to one side and focusing on producing a solid 2021 will be his goal and the 100/1 for 8 places is worth taking, despite some risk around his health status following positive covid-19 test.

I will also stick with Aaron Rai again this week. He wasn't too far off putting a good result together last week and he could and should be happy with a T-25th at Abu Dhabi. He makes his 4th appearance at the Majlis Course this week and will hope to improve on a best to date, 29th but he's much more a player the past 12 months than before. The course should suit him and @ 80/1 - 8 places (100/1 - 5 places) I'm happy to stick with him here and possibly again in Saudi Arabia next week.

Christian Bezuidenhout @ 20/1 - 8 places though has to be taken. The South African was runner-up last year and enters the week in very fine form having won back to back in South Africa in December, winning his National Open after winning the Alfred Dunhill. 12th place last week followed a solid 14th in Dubai at the DP Tour Championship. His putting let him down last week but he can certainly bounce back here. I made Bez 18/1 here for the outright and possibly 16s with the additional places and with the exchange @ 27.00 I want to have him onside.

Sergio Garcia was a certain shortlist entry having won here in 2017 and has he's warmed up in Hawaii already this year, posting 11th & 47th he's sure to go well and @ 22/1 he may be worth chancing also. Like many, he's got his eyes on making the Ryder Cup team this year and should be at ease on this course to put a good result together. Sergio has posted a further TOP-5 just 2 years ago when finishing 3rd behind Dechambeau & Wallace, and with 3 other T-25s to his name, the Spaniard is a real runner here having won recently as last October when winning the Sandersons Farm on the PGA Tour. Just inside the OWGR TOP-50, Sergio will look to consolidate his ranking each week to ensure he's in the big tournaments. The Dubai Desert Classic gives him a great opportunity to grab much Ryder/Ranking points. 

Lastly, I'll look to last week's distance runner-up, Aussie Jason Scrivener to capitalize on past course form as well as the current form. To boot, the Western Australian has shown solid form at correlated courses, Dom Pedro in Portugal and Sun City where the Nedbank Challenge is hosted, by finishing 8th & 3rd respectively last year. 6th & 7th here in 2018/2019 complemented with a T10 at the DP Tour Championship in 2019, Scrivener can end his maiden tag in Dubai @ 66/1 - 7 places 


Selections

0.75 pts e/w T. Olesen @ 100/1 - 8 places
0.75 pts e/w A. Rai @ 80/1 - 8 places
2.50 pts e/w C. Bezuidenhout @ 20/1 - 8 places
1.50 pts e/w S. Garcia @  22/1 - 7 places
1.00 pts e/w J. Scrivener @ 66/1 - 7 places 

 





No comments:

Post a Comment