Alfred Dunhill Championship 2012

After a very frustrating week in Durban last week, the action moves towards Kruger Park and Leopard Creek GC for the Alfred Dunhill Championship on Thursday. Fresh from a win in Thailand last week, Charl Schwartzel heads the betting from fellow countryman and co-Major winner, Louis Oosthuizen. The former has good form here and will be a contender but as always we will look for some value outside these top two.

 I backed Thomas Aiken last week stating that he always plays well on home soil, and despite last week’s event being washed out, I have opted to leave the Joburg native out of my line-up this time round. Richard Sterne, however, who never got going last week, was on my radar for the upcoming events as I stated last week and given that he is a former winner here with some decent returns over the years in the Championship, I have to side with him again this week at odds of 40/1 with Betpack. He may well have loosened up last week and with a favourable track this week complemented with obvious course form, the course could serve as the catalyst for a good performance.

I am going to stick with David Howell again this week at the generous odds of 100/1, also with Betpack. Last week has to be ignored, so the odds do excite me as I believe the Englishman could have a better 2013 than the results of 2012 produced. Bar the two favourites, the field does seem quite open and if getting a good first round under his belt, he may just have a decent shout this week. As per my post last week, there have been signs of a return to some form and therefore I won’t abandon him this week.

My final pick this week was a toss up between Marc Warren and Robert Rock. I’ve gone with the latter purely because of his record on this track with numerous top 20 finishes. The 33/1 on offer is fair and despite not winning often enough, the course should help him compete. Always in favour for “horses for courses”, Rock has one of the better records apart from dual winner, Pablo Martin in recent years and hopefully that form shines through again this week.

 

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w R. Sterne @ 40/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w D. Howell @ 100/1

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w R. Rock @ 33/1

Nelson Mandela Championship 2012

No rest for the wicked they say! Just two weeks ago, the 2012 season finale was played out at the DP world Championship in Dubai where World Number 1, Rory McIlroy emerged victorious. In between, qualifying has been completed for 2013 cards, and the Challenge Tour graduates along with the qualifiers, are all looking to make good starts to the new season. A new event, the Nelson Mandela Championship, will be played at the Royal Durban GC which will be a new venue for the tour. Locals always tend to go well in South Africa and this is reflected in the blog’s selections for this week as 2 of the 3 picks hail from this amazing country.

 I backed George Coetzee in Dubai, despite is lack of killer instinct to get the job done and considered him again for this week. But I genuinely believe its bad value backing big George this week. He wants to win badly, his good friend Brendan Grace graduated onto the tour last year and promptly won on 4 occasions. He will be under a small bit of pressure to do well this week and with his good buddy (Grace) they head the betting at 8/1. Whilst not a great field, there is some value to be had further down. Thomas Aiken owes me at this stage, but recent outings have shown he is getting back into top form and he always goes well in his homeland. He did finish 3^rd at the SA Open last month and but for a poor opening 73, he could have contended. At 18/1 with Boylesports, this is a good price and makes my staking plan.

My second pick is Aiken’s compatriot, Richard Sterne. He had a mixed bag of fortune in 2012 due to injury but did manage a handful of top 10s. He has 5 European Tour titles, 2 of which came on hone soil, again echoing the achievements of Thomas Aiken. 33/1 is very generous in my eyes and with a short course in play this week; I expect his iron play to stand him well. He is one I will be watching over the South Africa swing that’s for sure.

My third and final pick is Englishman, David Howell. He has shown signs of improving over the course of 2012. Over 20 events that he played in, he missed 8 cuts, 5 of which were in the early parts of the season. He recently finished 5^th in Perth and his top 5 finish at the French Open on a tough course highlights the case that he can still compete and in this field assembled for the season’s opener, Howell is fantastic value at e/w 66/1. If he fins the fairways, he will score this week and hopefully get the blog off to a good start for the new campaign.

The weather forecast is not good for the 4 days with rain and wind expected and this may help the more experienced, patient golfers and the 3 picks above have that.

Dubai World Championship 2012

The season’s finale is finally upon us and the top 60 players on the European Tour have rightly qualified for the World Championships to be played on the Earth Course at Jumeirah Golf Estates in Dubai. This is the 3^rd instalment of the Race to Dubai showpiece where Alvaro Quiros & Lee Westwood have won the previous two years. Big hitters are well suited to this course but the approach shots on undulating greens will be vital too. It’s a top field so expect a top tournament to complete a rather successful one for the European Tour that saw European players dominate the World Rankings and regain the Ryder Cup in spectacular fashion. If you are reading this post today and wondering where I’ve been, I had been quite busy at work and spending more and more time with my family at the weekends. My 3 & 5 year old girls aren’t into golf…yet!

 I do hope to kick on and get the blog updated on a weekly basis going forward, its not been a great year tipping wise(I’m putting this down to work commitments- sure it couldn’t be my fault) but the new season will be full of winners. In the meanwhile don't forget I can be followed on twitter at @birdieclubtips . The aim is to finish this one with a bang!

 

            So, onto this week’s event itself and the players will tee it up on Thursday with the lowest ranked player in the R2D standings hitting off first culminating in the last pairing of Peter Hanson & Rory McIlroy. The latter rightly goes off the tournament favourite after a fantastic year in which he won his second Major despite a missed cut last week, which is to be taken with a pinch of salt. He will be up for this here no doubt at all. But he is not backable at 6/1 for me. With a reduced field (just 57 playing) there is some surprising value to be had and as I write some of that value has disappeared since yesterdays prices but nonetheless some value still remains.

Last week in South Africa, Martin Kaymer produced solid golf the weekend to finish 3^rd and there is evidence that a real return to winning ways is imminent. He was 22/1 yesterday but has come into 16s today. At 22s I was keen but will pass at 16s regrettably. Westwood at 14s for me would be better value than the German, proven winner in this field and of course, winner here in 2010. At slightly better odds are Justin Rose & Peter Hanson at 20s which again are better value than Kaymer’s, purely because of recent form. In fact, Hanson has real form going into this and has top results on this course the past couple of years too, but despite holding McIlroy off recently at the BMW Masters in October, I have reservations if he has the bottle to see them off again come Sunday afternoon for a win. Instead I’ll put up my first tip in the shape of a non-European who finished well last week in his native homeland. George Coetzee. He can be backed at 30/1 which just about holds an interest for me. The big hitting South African has improved throughout the season and is due a big one. He certainly is one to watch out for next season and over the New Year back on home soil, but the course will suit him and he makes my staking plan this week.

Second on the list is one of my old favourites, Alex Noren who has proven that these type of courses plays into his hands. Strength is his main asset but approaches to the greens when on song can be deadly and if he hits it well this week he could go under the radar. I backed him yesterday at 90.0 on Betfair but he is widely available at 66/1 in the bookies and this for me is just too big in a 57 man field. He comes well rested so hopefully his opening round playing alongside Danny Willett will see him open with a score to build on for the remainder of the tournament.

I was undecided before writing this post as to whether to side with Thomas Aiken or Shane Lowry for my final tip. Of course, we are betting folk, and rather than make the decision, I have decided to back both of them. The Irishman got his first professional win last month in Portugal and is playing exceptionally well. He had top 10 here before so likes the place and is great each way value at 60/1. (If you are following these with me on Thursday, amazingly they go out one after the other- would be nice if I was there). Thomas Aiken hasn’t really produced the goods that I was expecting the past 3 years or so but can be awfully streaky. He also finished well last week (top5) but has a tendency to play better at home but also shows a tendency to play well in the big events, so I had to include him too. He can be backed now each way at 80/1.

 

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w G.Coetzee @ 30/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w A.Noren @ 66/1

TIP3: 1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 60/1

TIP 4: 1 pt e/w T.Aiken @ 80/1

KLM Open 2012 - Hilversumsche GC

The Dutch KLM Open is on again this week at the Hilversumsche GC just outside Amsterdam where tournament specialist Simon Dyson goes off as defending champion seeking a 4th title in 7 years, and his 2nd title at the course having the other 2 at the Kennemer GC. Its hard to look past him too with that sort of form in Holland. His past 3 starts saw him finish 27th at Crans and a MC at Gleneagles and a MC at the USPGA. Last week might just be the outing he needed before coming here. He seems to play well on this type of course and a general 25/1 across most bookies will ensure that I keep him onside, and I hope he gets a lift being back on Dutch soil which obviouly has served him well over the years and prevail once again come Sunday.

My second pick is Martin Kaymer at 20/1. Winner 2 years ago, the German will be anxious to get some form ahead of the Ryder Cup especially after a disappointing season. Again, he doesn't have to travel too far from Dusseldorf up to Amsterdam. He missed the cut here last year after an opening 74 but ran away with it the year before winning by 4 shots in the end. I'm a big fan of Kaymer and when 20/1 is on offer its hard to resist despite the form, but he comes rested not having played since the USPGA. In fact over the past couple of months he has played just 6 events, missing the cut in 3 of them including the BMW International in Cologne. He will be very keen to go well this week now that the Ryder Cup team is finalized and restore confidence not just for himself but his captain, Jose Maria Olazabal and his team mates. The price is like a carrot dangling in front of me and I can't ignore it. let's hope he sees this week as a real chance to lay down his marker for Ryder Cup.

My third pick is Ross Fisher. Again he is in some sort of decent form lately and has good record here also. Tied 11th 2 years ago and tied 6th in 2010 not to mention winner in 2007 on the Kennemer Course, he too like Dyson obviously likes playing here. Fishers driving and iron play will be a big advantage here this week and if he gets the flatstick going he could win this one and at 33/1 with Betpack, he too, cannot be omitted off my list this week. I was going to put up Shane Lowry who I also believe will be suited by the course and despite the odds of 45/1 I have taken the Englishman on course and toournament form in much the same vein as Dyson & Kaymer.