Farmers Insurance Open 2013

The PGA moves onto San Diego this week and to Torrey Pines GC for the Farmers Insurance Open, formely known as the Buick Invitational and San Diego Open. There are two courses in play this week for the opening two rounds before the action continues on the South Course, host of the 2008 US Open where Tiger beat Rocco Mediate in a playoff (when Westwood should have won)
The top players seem to prevail here and the honour roll backs that up. So this week, with length off the tee of critical importance and the stats backing up the theory that course knowledge is essential I have finally agreed on my lineup to tackle it this year.

First up is Hunter Mahan who has scored well here over the past couple of seasons with 6th place finishes as well as a top 15 in 2009. He has already dusted off the cobwebs at Kapalua so I expect that rustiness to have been shaken off as he looks to build towards a successful 2013. At 33/1, the odds are a must for someone who relishes the bigger events and with the quality field assembled here I expect him to raise his game once more.

 My 2nd pick this week is Bill Haas. Again, in 8 visits here he has recorded 5 top 20s so he obviously is comfortable on this course. he was tied 4th here last year and can go even better this year. A stack of top 20s on tour last year including a win at The Northern Trust, Haas is becoming ultra consistent since his FedEx Cup win in 2011. Currently 50/1 with Betpack, who are paying 6 places this week, I cannot ignore him given his course form here.

I cannot really decide who to back between Dustin Johnson & Bubba Watson for my final pick but due to course form, the latter gets the nod. He won this in 2011 and seems to be playing his best on the tougher, longer tracks. Seems to be fully content in his life too which always helps the mindset when playing golf.  He finished 4th at Kapalua and will take that as a positive season opener into Torrey Pines this week. 16/1(same odds as DJ) just about value .


TIP 1: 1 pt e/w H.Mahan @ 33/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w B.Haas @ 50/1 with  Betpack (paying 6 places)

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w B.Watson @ 16/1

Qatar Masters 2013

Having gone so close in Durban with Scott Jamieson the week before, the blog quickly established some early profit for the season when Jamie Donaldson duly obliged in Abu Dhabi at 60/1 with Betpack/Stanjames/Paddypower. Part 2 of the Desert Swing tees off in Qatar on Wednesday (not the usual Thursday) to allow the locals to support on Friday & Saturday so if placing bets make sure to do so tomorrow as the event starts Wednesday morning at 3:30 GMT. This event has not been kind to me the past couple of seasons and my notes from last year suggested avoiding this year if weather conditions suggested doing so. However, I feel a bit like a player who has just grabbed the honour on a  220 yd par 3 over water this week as I have received alot of messages and tweets following the 60/1 win with kind words of congratulations. Thanks all and lets hope we can add to the bank again this week.(and make birdie on that par3!). Speaking of twitter, I did ask local Doha PGA Pro, Steven Troup via twitter this morning what the weather forecast would be for the week and Steve informs me that it will be "Beautiful v slight wind fcast for much the same all week. Rough not as thick as prev .." (You can follow me on @birdieclubtips and Steve on @stroup1) . So then, if the wind,as in previous years, does not show itself, the course could be there for the big hitters and therefore the players at the head of the betting must be considered.
 Of the leading players I like Jason Dufner & Martin Kaymer. The latter never really got going in Abu Dhabi but is definitely getting back to his best. He definitely needs to get a low one early if he is to win soon. Dufner has been a bit of a surprise to me on his recent events outside of America with a 2nd in Perth and a top 10 last week. And because of those performances I think he can go well this week now having settled in. At 16/1, he just about gets my attention ahead of Martin.
 I like the chances of former winner, Henrik Stenson this week as well. But for a poor 76 in round 3 last week, the Swede would have been in contention or at least recorded a top 10. He is a recent winner in South Africa and despite poor results here in Doha the past 2 years, he has recorded a win , 3x 2nds and a 7th the previous 5 years. He will be looking forward to it this week and I look forward to getting a run at 33/1 with him.
My third selection this week is Thorbjorn Olesen. I tipped him in Durban 2 weeks ago and he almost made a playoff with Donaldson on Sunday last. He will bring that confidence with him this week and if he drives as well he did last week I'm sure he will make plenty of opportunities to score. At 30/1 also, the Dane makes the staking plan.
I am adding a 4th player this week in the shape of Frenchman, Victor Dubuisson. Two top10s here the past 2 years should mean he likes the course. His performances last year from 20 events saw him make top 10 on 5 occasions and appears to be improving all the time, despite a missed cut (only just) last week and at 80/1, he is added to the lineup for this week.

TIP 1: 2 pts WIN J.Dufner @ 16/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w H.Stenson @ 33/1

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w T.Olesen @ 30/1

TIP 4: 0.5 pts V.Dubuisson @ 80/1

Humana Challenge - 2013

The PGA tour leaves Hawaii and returns to the "mainland" and onto California for this weeks Humana Challenge. The format for this week sees a pro-am format to be played over 3 different courses so expect the players to be out on the course for a good amount of time. It's not for everyone, but it would have been nice to see David Duval, who shot that 59 all those years ago on the Palmer Private course when the event was known as The Bop Hope Classic. Sadly, the former World Number 1 has not even been invited this year which is a great shame, but that round should never be forgotten on the final day back in 1999. He took to twitter this week to vent his disappointment, so hopefully that passion and frustration will kick start his career again soon and we get to see him more often back on the tour.
So who are we backing this week? Its early season for most of these players but I have selected two who played in Hawaii, and therefore should have some edge over the rusty ones out there.
My top pick is Webb Simpson at 22/1 with Betpack or Stanjames. The US Open champion played at the Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, so will be fresh and warmed up for this week where the format should suit his slow style of play. Simpson at this price always has me interested and if he gets the putter going he could go well for us.
My second pick is last weeks winner, Russell Henley @ 50/1. The rookie looked the real deal last week and if he is to continue to impress, we wont be getting 50s for much longer. Last year Johnson Wagner won the Sony Open and followed it up with a runners up placing here at the Humana Challenge so hopefully that trend goes one better agin this time round. Henley could be the star this year on the PGA, time will tell. Hopefully he hasn't been partying too hard this week either. Well worth backing again a player who has won 3 times in 5 starts (twice on web.com tour).
My third pick is a three-figure punt in the shape of Japanese star, Ryo Ishikawa at 100/1 (160.oo on Betfair). Very indifferent form last year but he again will like this format and I am a fan of his swing, his all round game, so much that despite coming in here very fresh for the season its worth a punt at 100/1 e/w.

TIP 1: 1.5 pts e/w W.Simpson @ 22/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w R.Henley @ 50/1

TIP 3: 0.5pts e/w R.Ishikawa @ 100/1

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship - 2013

We were so close to a 40/1 winner on Sunday when Scott Jamieson came up a shot short in the Volvo Championship in Durban. Former Open champion, Louis Oosthuizen proving one too many. Still we wont complain with the place money at 10/1. Over in Hawaii, a level par 3rd round put paid to any chance of Matt Kuchar winning and he finished tied 5th giving us very small place money with 2/3 reduction for the tie. With golf betting, if we can keep the bank tidy with some place returns, the winners will provide the bonus. We were so close last week!
 So, onto this weeks events. The World Number One is in action in Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship alongside Tiger Woods, course specialist, Martin Kaymer, Jason Dufner, Justin Rose and co. The very fact that Rory and Tiger are here would suggest this could be dominated by the big guns so the staking plan will take some consideration before deciding on where to place our money here. Rory comes here with his new clubs. I have to pay for mine but boy what a deal for Rory to use Nike from hereon in. The questions are being asked if he can produce the goods with the new clubs and the simple answer to that is most definitely. Over in the US PGA, the Humana Challenge takes place in pro-am format over 3 courses. Its this type of event that I normally stay away from but we will include a couple of players and great odds who could surprise.
 So for the Abu Dhabi event, course specialist, Martin Kaymer has come in the betting already since yesterday (16s into 10s!). We have missed the boat perhaps but is the 10/1 still value? 3 times a winner, and two seconds suggest you would be mad to leave him out this week. I do like the chances of Justin Rose and when weighing up the options, is 10/1 on Kaymer better value than 16/1 on Rose? With Rory heading the betting at 5/1 and Tiger at 17/2, Kaymer does still give us value at 10s, but only for a win bet. If you do prefer an e/w alternative I would suggest Justin Rose at 16/1. Rose played well towrds the end of 2012 and does tend to play well when back on European Tour. This could be a very big year for the Englishman too.
Speaking of Englishmen and expectant good 2013, Paul Casey has shown recent signs that his game is coming back to near his best. There is probably no better course than here this week to judge exactly where his game is at. Twice a winner here proves he has a taste for this course but two top 25s here in 2011 & 2010 when he was not having a good time of it do suggest that the course will bring out his best. At 30/1 I am happy to include him on the staking plan this week.
My third pick is Jamie Donaldson at 66/1.(60/1 best price for bookies offering 6 places this week, see below). Probably didn't get the result he was looking for last week in Durban but he did hit a lot of birdies there and if he can cut out the mistakes he could go well here as he has done in the past. Following his win at Royal Portrush for the Irish Open last year, the Welshman has moved up a tier and he will be looking forward to this one up against top quality players. 66/1 or 60/1 cannot be ignored.

Just to add, if you do follow these tips and secure a payout, please check out the "Big Bet" in aid of Great Ormond Street Hospital (GOSH) over at http://www.manvsbookie.com/the-big-bet.html, where just the smallest of donations is being pooled to create a big bet in aid of sick children.

Good luck to all.

TIP 1: 2 pts win M.Kaymer @ 10/1- general

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w P.Casey @ 30/1 (Betpack, Stanjames and Paddypower paying 6 places)

TIP 3: 1pt e/w J.Donaldson @ 66/1 or 60/1 (6 places) - I am taking 60/1 with Betpack