Valero Texas Open - 2013

Only one event this week as the European Tour takes a breather from all the travelling around the world. It was a starnge week for the blog on both sides of the Atlantic where 4 of our 6 picks missed the cut, and by some way too. In Morocco, we will just put it down to luck (or lack of) the draw as Scott Jamieson & Rafa Cabrera-Bello failed to cope with the wind and the rough on a course that was well set-up. Its certainly an event that with the right sponsorship could be a player on the tour in coming years. Lee Slattery made the cut, again, and finally put together a decent final round to finish in a tie for 21st. On the PGA, the blog almost produced the winner in Dustin Johnson who was on fire in his final round. Unfortunately I only saw bits of the coverage over the Easter, but I hear he missed a 5 footer for birdie on 11 and then went for the green on the 12th to find water. Had he made birdie on 11, things could have worked out better, but I'll never bemoan a player who goes for it. He finished T 4th to ensure some return and therefore minimize the damage of the 4 missed cuts. This result is prime example why e/w golf betting is important in my view as these place returns keep the bankroll somewhat tidy before the winner comes along. So then, where's the next winner I hear you say?
The Valero Texas Open takes place this week at TPC San Antonio where Ben Curtis will defend. He is joined in the field by Rory McIlroy who has expressed his desire to get more competitive golf under his belt before he heads to Augusta next week. Its a good decision in my eyes and we can be assured he is working very hard on his game to peak before he drives up Magnolia Lane. I expect him to play well this week, but I am sure he is not worried about winning the tournament, therefore he's not a bet for me. Of the favourites I would be tempted by Matt Kuchar, but he too is off to Augusta next week and I'm a bit wary of backing a player that has real high hopes of wearing a green jacket come Sunday week. Also in the field is Charl Schwartzel, Padriag Harrington, Ian Poulter, Peter Hanson and Freddie Jacobsen who are playing next week. Harrington is interesting and is a player I want to back next week and having won the par 3 at Augusta to "jinx" himself before, I'm sure he wont mind winning this week either. His driving is better suited to Augusta than here but he is a definite watch this week.
I have found three players that have some value and who I do expect to compete on the Greg Norman designed course, rated as the most difficult on tour outside of the Majors. The course has undergone some changes namely to 4 or 5 greens, and the run offs around them , as well as shortening of the rough.It will be interesting to see if it plays a bit easier this year on the back of these changes. Its  a 7,500 yarder, bunkers are quite deep and straight hitters and good GIR stats are what I'm looking at this week.

My first selection is Jim Furyk @ 33/1 with . Jim has not played this event in almost 20 years and makes his 7th start this season having made 6 cuts already. Not the longest of drivers, but his ability to find fairways is key here as he is ranked 8th currently on tour,and the "veteran" is quite capable of winning this as the par 5s this week will play for most as a "three shotter". The price is good for a player that has 3 top 25s in his 6 starts this year.

My second pick has to be Billy Horschel who I have put up twice already this season at bigger odds. Billy currently has the longest cuts made streak on the tour standing at 20. Last week he nearly won, the week I wasn't on him so I have to keep the faith in him this week. He is 55/1 with Bet Victor. Thats still good value despite not having won, but that win is coming. Following injury two years ago and a slow path back to the Tour, the early potential looks like its about to reap reward and having tweeted that he and his wife, Brittany had bought their first home a couple of weeks ago, all seems good in his life at the moment and that good feel factor goes along way on a golf course.

My final pick this week is Brendon de Jonge @ 66/1 with .From 11 starts this season he has made 9 cuts which include 4 top 25s and 2 top 10s. He's in form and had a good weekend in Houston. He is 26th in GIR, and 10th in all round scoring which comes on the back of making the most birdies on tour this year. A streaky player, so hopefully he continues the form he has shown already in Texas.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w Jim Furyk @ 33/1

TIP 2: 1 pt e/w B.Horschel @ 55/1 Bet Victor

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w Brendon de Jonge @ 66/1

Houston Open - 2013

Another quality tournament in store this week on the PGA sees a quality field line up at Redstone GC in Texas. This event is normally played the week before the Masters but has swapped weeks with the Valero Open taking place next week as a result of those organizers having a clause that they wont finish a tournament on Easter Sunday. The switch seems to have upset Phil Mickelson, as he likes to play Houston the week before the Masters. This year he will have a week off in between. A lot of eyes will be on Lefty here this week as a good performance will see his odds slashed for Augusta. Same can be said for Rory McIlroy. Should he be in the mix this week his odds will come in for Augusta and perhaps Tiger will drift back out. But we'll have to see how it goes this week in Texas. One thing we also need to keep an eye on this week is any Masters fancies, as Redstone GC is very similar to Augusta in setup. Long course, almost identical in length and fast, very fast greens. Those players with good GIR and scrambling stats this week will head to Georgia in a good state of mind !

I have once again gone through quite a lengthy shortlist yesterday and today, whittled in down to 23 as of Tuesday morning, scratched a few off it and then put one or two back on it. Its an intriguing event but stats do tend to back up the trend that Texans can do quite well here in their own backyard, and those that have the length off the tee. Americans normally win this event too so Westwood, Oosthuizen, Stenson, McIlroy got docked marks when I went through my notes. I really fancied Stenson to go well this week as he went so close for the blog last week (if he had not found water on 16 at Bay Hill in the final round he may well have got us a place bu it showed he was going for it, and I always like that. But 50/1 is a bit short of what I was expecting for the former Players Champion so regrettably I am leaving him out. He needs a good result to make the Masters.

Trophee Hassan II - 2013

European action moves to another continent this week. Quite a number of players have made the long flights from Kuala Lumpur to Agadir, Morocco and will be delighted to leave the thunderstorms behind for a much better climate in the North West of Africa. This will be the third year the event will be staged at the Golf du Palais GC where Northern Ireland's, Michael Hoey defends. Its a poor enough field this week, but to be expected really when most of the top Europeans are concentrating on plying their trade in the US this year as well as this being just 2 weeks ahead of the Masters at Augusta.

Arnold Palmer Invitational - 2013

The PGA Tour serves up yet another quality tournament this week when Arnold Palmer hosts at Bay Hill, Florida. Tiger Woods defends this week on a course he simply loves. Tiger is gunning for his eighth victory here, a feat that will match Sam Sneads record of winning the same title 8 times. Tiger loves breaking records ! Tiger is 3/1 favourite this week, and why not? So then, a short write up this week ? Well it could be if you strongly fancy Tiger to win but thanks to some bookies, we can avail of the betting w/o Tiger market which I firmly believe is the better way to go here this week. Whether Tiger does win or lose there is still value in this market due to a very strong field.

Whilst looking over the field for this week, I found it tough to actually look further down the betting market than the top 10 or 15 with the exception of one. This is a tough par 72, where an excellent tee to green game is required. On top of that, past results also show that a hot putter is required. My first two picks meet the first part no problem at all but one of these is a bit lacking in the putting department. That said he is not as bad as most critics would want us all to believe and his recent Major results the past few seasons assure me that he can certainly contend in these top events. Up first is Lee Westwood @ 28/1. Westy has not a great record here and is visiting Bay Hill for the first time in 5 years. Of all players on tour,if asked who would I rate as the best, most consistent driver, I would opt for Lee Westwood. And if he fufils my expectations with the driver this week, there is every chance he can stay patient and get across the winning line. Patience is a requirement on this course, ranked as one of the toughest on tour.

The second pick is Jason Dufner who excels off the tee and in approach play. Slow to get going this season, he showed signs last week that he is beginning to click into gear. Although he has not had a great record here over the years he did have a top 15 finish last year. This may be a big week for Dufner with the Masters looming and a lack of success so far on tour in 2013, so he should be keen to assess his game. I am expecting a real good performance from him. Again in the w/o Tiger market, he can be backed at 33/1

The shortlist also listed Hunter Mahan,Bubba Watson,Webb Simpson,Keegan Bradley, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose & Henrik Stenson. Hunter Mahan should have won for the blog a few weeks back at Riviera, and looked like defending his WGC Matchplay title but lost in the final to Matt Kuchar also. This recent form cannot be ignored either and over the past couple of seasons has shown that he is a player for the big events.Mahan has recorded 6 top 25s this season. Like Westwood, he will be patient on a demanding course and should be up there challenging. 33/1 in the w/o Tiger market is great value.

My final pick is an outside fancy in the shape of Swede, Henrik Stenson @ 100/1 (w/o Tiger) with Paddypower.He played recently in Puerto Rico without really contending but had shown some consistency towards the end of 2012 (winning in South Africa). He should be fresh enough and eager to do well here as he currently sits 58 in the OWGR. If he can move up 8 places he will be at Augusta in 3 weeks time.

TIP 1: 1 pt e/w Lee Westwood @ 28/1 w/o Tiger Betpack   StanJames


TIP 2: 1 pt e/w Jason Dufner @ 33/1 w/o Tiger Boylesports

TIP 3: 1 pt e/w Hunter Mahan @ 33/1 Boylesports

TIP 4: 0.5 pts e/w Henrik Stenson @ 100/1 Paddypower