South African Open 2016

Europeantour action for the 2016 season resumes in South Africa this week for the second oldest National Open Golf Championship in the world, when Ernie Els hosts at Glendower GC. Whilst Ernie will take on the responsibility of growing the National Open in his homeland, he can be pleased to see his compatriots and fellow Major winners, Retief Goosen and Trevor Immelman tee it up too despite the forced withdrawal of Charl Schwartzel. England's Andy Sullivan will defend.

Reports from the course is that it is in immaculate condition with little rough and weather seems perfect for low scoring. It should suit the bigger hitters where accuracy will not be as critical as most weeks. Schwartzel's withdrawal will mean Branden Grace will go off the clear favourite having produced four TOP10s in his last five starts worldwide and it may be difficult to see him getting beat here if he kick starts 2016 is much the same vein as he ended 2015. As is the case normally in South Africa co-sanctioned events such as this, the winner usually comes in the guise of a home player and Grace's leading challengers from his homeland are best represented with a 40 year plus old brigade such as Els, Goosen, Horne, Hugo, Fichardt, Van der Walt, and Van der Berg, whilst those slightly younger, and considered more of a challenge, could include Jaco Van Zyl (aged 36) , Trevor Fisher (36) and Hennie Otto (39). So, if Grace is not to succeed this week and a South African is to prevail with youth on his side, are we to look at and consider George Coetzee and Brandon Stone and Jbe' Kruger?  I'd like to think, of the leading home contingent though, that perhaps with a new season upon us, fresh goals and targets in their minds, that perhaps Richard Sterne can reproduce the quality of golf to re-ignite his career after a sustained rib injury enforced a rest for much of 2015 before returning to action in November in SA to finish with a T20 before producing a T34th at Leopard Creek where but for a poor third round 77, would have seen him finish closer to a TOP10. With a nice break over Christmas under his belt, the Pretoria man can follow up his T20 here of twelve months ago and contend. Of the 67 players from South Africa in the field (just under 50%), the average age of these players is 31 and the 34 year old is a class above the vast majority of them. If injury free he could have a good January.

Brandon Stone is one of the youngest in the field at 22 years of age and has a recent TOP20 under his belt at Leopard Creek following his win on the Sunshine Tour in his previous start at the Lion of Africa Cape Town Open. Stone was on the European Challenge Tour last season finishing 14th on the Order of Merit before producing a 6th place finish at the NBO Golf Classic Grand Final in Oman, three shots behind winner Ricardo Gouveia. Stone will be encouraged and should be confident heading into this week on the back of securing his card on the full tour this season and those recent results.He can ignore his course form of the past two years at this event and hit the ground running here and produce a bold showing. I will be ignoring the course form !

Selections:

0.5 pts e/w  R.Sterne @ 51.00
5 pts T20 B.Stone @ 3.00

Open d'Italia 2015 - Milano GC

The Europeantour heads to Milan this week and a revisit to Milano GC for the first time since 1990, where Sky Sports golf commentator, Richard Boxall saw off a class field to win his one and only tour title with a -22 score, helped by opening rounds of 65 & 64. Its a fairly decent field too this week where players are fighting for cards, R2D rankings and Ryder Cup points. Martin Kaymer, who disappointed hugely in Holland last week will no doubt head the betting but based on last week's effort it may pay to look elsewhere. Francesco Molinari will also be towards the head of the market here and carries the hopes for a home win. Kaymer, despite a poor showing last week should NOT be behind Danny Willett in the market though, but all three are far too short here.The tourney may not come quick enough for some though, especially the likes of Eddie Pepperell, Soren Kjeldsen, Tyrell Hatton and Kristoffer Broberg to mention a handful in fine form. With this and five other events left before the Final Series kicks off in Turkey at the end of October, those in form will be all out to grab as much R2D points and cash as possible and see where it leaves them in the Ryder Cup standings. Matt Fitzpatrick, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrell Hatton are just three players that I fancy to make a challenge for a place and who's to say that Thomas Pieters won't win more between now and Hazeltine next year. With Lee Westwood, martin Kaymer and indeed Padraig Harrington looking like they will be playing more on the European Tour next season, the race for those elusive points could be quite interesting and whatever the outcome, skipper, Darren Clarke should at least have an in-form team to defend the trophy. So, that's my reference to the Ryder Cup qualification out of the way on here but be prepared to hear it every week on the TV commentaries !

Thomas Pieters grabbed his second win on tour to make it back to back wins last week, emphasizing how current form and confidence are key to succeeding more so than over previous course form. Lee Slattery backed that up last week when he chased home the Belgian having won the previous week in Moscow! 

Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

The second of the FedEx Cup play-offs tees off at TPC Boston on Friday this week, where Jason Day hopes the extra day's rest will help him keep his amazing run going as he seeks his fourth win in five starts. The field is now reduced to 100 players and Rory McIlroy returns to the action having returned from injury at the PGA Championship to finish in the TOP20. He also returns with the World Number One tag back on his shoulders following Jordan Spieth's missed cut at Plainfield Country Club last week. He's a tempting 9/1 shot in fairness, he'll be fresh (some will say not competitively fit), and he's a former TPC Boston winner back in 2012. The problem though this week is that TPC Boston will be a birdie-fest as it is every year and those that are in form right now should be contending again this week. Jason Day rightly leads the betting market but he's far too short to win again here when the field are so much capable of winning. Golf is in a good shape at the moment and I've often thought to myself if I leave the betting alone for awhile would I enjoy the coverage more? Well, the coverage needs to improve first, far too many brilliant golfers out there on the tour now that we seldom get to see, the powers that be seem more interested in showing the stars on the practice range or indeed signing autographs rather than showing some golf action. The FedEx Cup playoffs were set up to be exciting and they are I suppose but with so many players that can realistically win any of these events, I'd like to see some more action ! So, who can win it this week ? Just about any of them can ! Bubba Watson is probably the most in-form player at present without a win of late, and will be on many staking plans for this week at 22/1. The price seems very fair considering his last win was only seven starts back at The Travelers! His returns since read 13-mc-2-2-21-3. His third place finish last week may have been a distance from Jason Day but his game is in very good shape and when it comes to birdie-fests, Bubba usually makes the shortlist. Course form at TPC Boston though is not great and for this reason, I've decided to leave him be.

A hot putter will be required this week to complement a good tee to green game ! I should therefore be on board with Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley and perhaps Henrik Stenson. The latter two have good chances here this week, The Swede is best price 16/1, which is short for a player that doesn't win often enough, but is a player that seems to excel at this time of the year and has very good form in the FedEx Cup playoffs, having won it two years ago by winning here and at East Lake. But one player who is also playing extremely well but is falling short due in part to some poor putting of late is Justin Rose (20/1). Since his win in New Orleans, the Englishman has recorded five TOP10s in eight events. His GIR performance is worth noting, along with Stenson's, they are encouraging for this week's event. If Rose has worked on his putting this week and he can rev it up for the four days he will be in the mix come Monday. He's playing too well not to be contending.


I backed Robert Streb last week and after an encouraging start, he fell down the leaderboard the weekend. I won't abandon him just yet though; the 28 year old from Oklahoma has been in fine form this season, sits ninth in the rankings with  no missed cuts in his last eleven starts. Four of those resulted in TOP10s and of those, three were TOP5! He appeared a little agitated during coverage last week, I like to see a bit of that as it can often emphasize how a player is approaching the tournament; this man wants to compete! Winner of the McGladrey Classic almost twelve months ago, Streb is looking to close out a successful campaign with a big win. He was T-9th here last year and @ 60/1, I'm happy to keep him on side.

Webb Simpson is simmering of late as he tries to come to grips with the new putting technique. But it's improving as his results have shown. His first win on tour came at the Wyndham Championship, named his daughter Wyndham as a result, and has often expressed his fondness for the course and backed that up with a 6th placing two weeks ago. He seems to be very relaxed of late, and is focused on making it to East Lake (currently sits outside the TOP30).  He won this event back in 2011 and has posted a TOP20 and TOP10 (last year) since. Like Rose, a marked improvement in putting performance should see the former US Open Champion in contention.


2 pts e/w J.Rose @ 20/1
1 pt e/w R.Streb @ 60/1
1 pt e/w W.Simpson @ 66/1

Glory's Last Shot for Rory ....or the Anchormen?

The final Major of the year returns to Whistling Straits in Wisconsin for the third time having hosted in 2004 and 2010 when Vijay Singh and Martin Kaymer emerged victorious in play-offs. The Pete Dye course is now infamous for the amount of bunkers on the course, rumoured to be in the number of circa 1000, depending on who's review you read and of course for the 2-shot penalty that was inflicted on Dustin Johnson for grounding his club in the wasteland deemed to be a bunker. Given the amount of bunkers and sand on the course and the controversial ruling from five years ago, the PGA have gone to great lengths this week to remind all the players and caddies of the ruling so as to avoid any confusion. We shall probably see a lot of referees being called upon this week !

Rory McIlroy has declared himself fit, 100% fit and has been seen running up banks proving his ankle is strong and despite the layoff represents some value @ current odds of 12/1 to win here on a course he finished just one shot outside the playoff last time to finish third. Its a long course and with reports that its playing soft at present, it should be an ideal opportunity for him. Jordan Spieth starts as favourite and why not? Winner of the Masters and US Open and agonizingly one shot away from the playoff at St Andrews, Spieth is in fantastic form and we can expect to see him contend again this week but he's not worth backing for this one given that this Major has a tendency over the years to produce first time Major winners along with some "shock" winners. Spieth will play alongside the defending champion, McIlroy, as well as Open Champion, Zach Johnson so expect plenty of TV coverage from this group. Interesting to note also that Zach also finished alongside Rory at -10, five years ago here so he arrives this week with fond memories and recent Major success to instill a lot of confidence. If he plays his wedges anything like he has the past couple of tournaments he may make the 50/1 on offer a bargain price.

I so want to back Dustin Johnson here....but having failed so badly the weekend at St Andrews when he was looking like a winner at the half way point and having had his chance at Chambers Bay, I can't back him @ 16/1. I'd love to see him break through here though, revenge and all that but he bloody deserves a Major and the sooner he wins one, the better chance he has of adding another. I'll be rooting for him as well as the Irish contingent of course, once some money can be banked first !

As per my shortlist on Monday, I really do fancy the chances of Paul Casey this week. He's lost two play-offs already this season at the Northern Trust and Travelers Championship and despite a disappointing effort at The Open, Casey responded with a nice TOP20 last week at Firestone. The Englishman finished T12th here back in 2010 so has good course form (he missed the cut in 2004 though) and if he brings his solid tee to green game here he can make a bold effort and join the First-time-Major-winners-at-the-PGA Club. From his eighteen starts on the PGA Tour this year he has recorded six TOP10s! He could so easily have two wins also. He ranks 10th on tour for Strokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green and he's no slouch off the tee either sitting nicely within the TOP40. He's 5th in GIR and if he can put together a week of solid putting, then Casey can win here or at least present a perfect back-to-lay investment on the exchanges. I'm feeling quietly confident for the former Irish Open Champion. 

Justin Rose normally competes well on Pete Dye tracks but has had poor form at Whistling Straits in the past. However, Rose has been playing extremely well of late and but for a shed load of missed putts, particularly at Tigers event, The Quicken Loans, he would have won. Can't argue though his form of late though. Winner at the Zurich Classic in April having finished runner up to Spieth at Augusta with a score that would normally be good enough to win, Rose has returned figures of 2-27-6-4-3 in his last five starts. He's in form and knows how to win and at 20/1 with Paddypower (paying 6 places) he cannot be ignored.

This is of course the last Major that we'll see the "Anchor Men" and it could be just the case that we have the last winner here as we had Keegan Bradley winning the PGA Championship as the first to do so. Adam Scott has been quiet in 2015 but since Steve Williams has returned to the bag he's produced TOP10s at Chambers Bay & St Andrews. He was 39th here in 2010 and 9th in 2004. Whistling Straits should be right up the Aussies creek this week, and Ladbrokes have him available at 33/1 for 6 places, just too big a price for a man who can turn it on here. 

Matt Kuchar may wobble if in contention on Sunday but if he enters the final round just off the pace he may have the tools to go close this week. Four TOP10s and another six TOP20s from his twenty events already this season yet again show his consistency and his TOP10 on this course five years ago can aide his attempt to break his maiden tag for the Majors. He was TOP25 last week at Firestone which is worth noting as the winner here has usually finished within that TOP25 at Firestone since the events have been staged back to back. "Smiler" will be there or thereabouts and at a generous 66/1, with Ladbrokes again, he has to be included.

Of the "outsiders" I am tempted by Robert Streb @ 80/1. Streb meets a lot of the "criteria" for this week in that he finished 5th last week in Akron, has won on tour already this year and is a maiden in the Majors. Seven TOP10s since his win last October proves this is a player to watch out for as his TOP20 at The Open backs up. Hes ranked 25th on Tour for Strokes-Gained-Putting and 29th for Stokes-Gained-Tee-To-Green. The 28 year old lies 5th in the FedEx Cup rankings, so he's playing solidly all year round.



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