Joburg Open 2016

The Royal Johannesburg and Kensington GC will host the Joburg Open for the tenth time this week where for the second week running, England's Andy Sullivan is the defending champion. However the Englishman won't be in attendance this time round, but nonetheless, we do have a similar field as to that which teed it up at last week's tourney. This blog's each way selection at Glendower last week had a slow start but exploded into life on Saturday, as when faced with an imminent cut, he found three birdies to qualify for the weekend right on the mark. He then returned in the afternoon to go -7 for his round before weather suspended proceedings for the day. Mr Sterne had moved into the TOP15 at that point and I had high hopes of a Sunday charge but it just didn't happen. It turned out to be a day of mixed emotions though for the blog as the TOP20 selection held on to to win the title @ 50/1 odds pre-tournament. It's one that got away perhaps but Brendon Stone ensured we started the year in profit with a solid performance.

Whilst Stone rewarded recent solid performances with victory it was worth noting the effort of Christiaan Bezhuidenhout! The 21 year old is another youngster we will see a lot more of and I wouldn't be surprised if he produced the goods this week on the back of a top result last Sunday. He makes my shortlist off the back of that result and given his obvious talent he is sure to make his mark on home soil in these co-sanctioned events at some point. Whilst Bezhuidenhout was making an impression at Glendower the same cannot be said for Sweden's next big thing, Markus Kinhult, who surprisingly missed the cut. The cross-over from amateur status to professional status is never an easy transition to make but his game suggests that he is one to make an immediate impression on tour and it could come this week having had the weekend off last week - he could be chomping at the bit to get going here! The missed cut may have helped his odds too as he has drifted out to 80/1 and its a price with 6 places on offer that could look generous in time. But for the time being, I'd rather take a watching brief to see how he fares before getting involved.

In an event that celebrates just its tenth anniversary we will see the 206 players compete over two different courses for the opening two rounds; the easier West Course and the East course, which will be in use for the weekend. Past results here point to players with excellent GIR Stats for the week, as being those most likely to contend but it's also worth noting that players with form coming into it fare better than those who haven't the form coming in. With that in mind I'd have to give a lot of thought to backing the two Englishmen in Tyrell Hatton and David Horsey who open their 2016 campaigns here. Both could perform well and be inspired by their compatriot, Andy Sullivan, who broke through in South Africa before also taking out this title soon after his maiden win. The Joburg Open despite producing class winners has had a tendency to produce first time winners in it's short history.

As with last week though, these co-sanctioned events in SA usually go the way of one of the home based players and whilst Jaco Van Zyl may seem to be the likeliest of those to win here given his course form here over the years, he can't be backed at such short odds. Especially has he has had chances to clinch his first Europeantour Title in recent weeks which he didn't grab. Instead I am drawn back to last week's selection , Richard Sterne, who did show form on the aforementioned Saturday birdie spree. He should take the positives from that result as well as the two outings towards the end of last year and approach this week in confidence where he has prevailed twice in the past at the Joburg Open. At the price, Sterne is a quality player that cannot be ignored easily and he is my each way selection to contend for the title. 

Of the others, there could be an opportunity for TOP20 results from the likes of Justin Walters, Keith Horne, Dean Burmester, Trevor Fisher Jnr. and Darren Fichardt of the home players and another who I fancy to have a good week is Chris Swanepoel. The 31 year old has mixed form at the Joburg Open but has posted a TOP10 (last year) as well as TOP20 in 2012. He played nicely last week for T45th following some fine Sunshine Tour Form where he has won and posted a further two TOP10s and a TOP20 in his last six starts. Justin Walters and Keith Horne likewise have been in solid form on South African soil of late and if continuing the trend of bringing form into the Joburg Open to produce a decent result, then both must be of consideration here. I do like the chances of both but with the 50/1 on offer for 6 places, Horne would be the preferred selection of the two. With Sterne the main each way pick though, I'll add Horne into the staking plan for a TOP20 @ 3.75

Horne has played in each of the previous nine Joburg Opens and has only missed the cut once whilst bagging himself two TOP10s and a further two TOP20s. Has he form coming in ? Well he was tied 4th last week following a strong weekend and he can pick off where he left off there and go low enough to produce another solid result here.  Finally, Tom Lewis is a player that could relish conditions this week if wind and rain descend on the Johannesburg course which is possible according to weather forecasts, and he could surprise at a decent price in a field that he should be quite competitive in. He'd be my back-to-lay pick here. He's been gradually improving over the past few months and with a new season in front of him he could just be ready to go and play, but with the big open field in play this week, I'm happy to stick with just two selections.

Selections:

0.5 pts e/w R.Sterne @ 33/1
5 pts TOP20 K.Horne @ 3.75

South African Open 2016

Europeantour action for the 2016 season resumes in South Africa this week for the second oldest National Open Golf Championship in the world, when Ernie Els hosts at Glendower GC. Whilst Ernie will take on the responsibility of growing the National Open in his homeland, he can be pleased to see his compatriots and fellow Major winners, Retief Goosen and Trevor Immelman tee it up too despite the forced withdrawal of Charl Schwartzel. England's Andy Sullivan will defend.

Reports from the course is that it is in immaculate condition with little rough and weather seems perfect for low scoring. It should suit the bigger hitters where accuracy will not be as critical as most weeks. Schwartzel's withdrawal will mean Branden Grace will go off the clear favourite having produced four TOP10s in his last five starts worldwide and it may be difficult to see him getting beat here if he kick starts 2016 is much the same vein as he ended 2015. As is the case normally in South Africa co-sanctioned events such as this, the winner usually comes in the guise of a home player and Grace's leading challengers from his homeland are best represented with a 40 year plus old brigade such as Els, Goosen, Horne, Hugo, Fichardt, Van der Walt, and Van der Berg, whilst those slightly younger, and considered more of a challenge, could include Jaco Van Zyl (aged 36) , Trevor Fisher (36) and Hennie Otto (39). So, if Grace is not to succeed this week and a South African is to prevail with youth on his side, are we to look at and consider George Coetzee and Brandon Stone and Jbe' Kruger?  I'd like to think, of the leading home contingent though, that perhaps with a new season upon us, fresh goals and targets in their minds, that perhaps Richard Sterne can reproduce the quality of golf to re-ignite his career after a sustained rib injury enforced a rest for much of 2015 before returning to action in November in SA to finish with a T20 before producing a T34th at Leopard Creek where but for a poor third round 77, would have seen him finish closer to a TOP10. With a nice break over Christmas under his belt, the Pretoria man can follow up his T20 here of twelve months ago and contend. Of the 67 players from South Africa in the field (just under 50%), the average age of these players is 31 and the 34 year old is a class above the vast majority of them. If injury free he could have a good January.

Brandon Stone is one of the youngest in the field at 22 years of age and has a recent TOP20 under his belt at Leopard Creek following his win on the Sunshine Tour in his previous start at the Lion of Africa Cape Town Open. Stone was on the European Challenge Tour last season finishing 14th on the Order of Merit before producing a 6th place finish at the NBO Golf Classic Grand Final in Oman, three shots behind winner Ricardo Gouveia. Stone will be encouraged and should be confident heading into this week on the back of securing his card on the full tour this season and those recent results.He can ignore his course form of the past two years at this event and hit the ground running here and produce a bold showing. I will be ignoring the course form !

Selections:

0.5 pts e/w  R.Sterne @ 51.00
5 pts T20 B.Stone @ 3.00

Open d'Italia 2015 - Milano GC

The Europeantour heads to Milan this week and a revisit to Milano GC for the first time since 1990, where Sky Sports golf commentator, Richard Boxall saw off a class field to win his one and only tour title with a -22 score, helped by opening rounds of 65 & 64. Its a fairly decent field too this week where players are fighting for cards, R2D rankings and Ryder Cup points. Martin Kaymer, who disappointed hugely in Holland last week will no doubt head the betting but based on last week's effort it may pay to look elsewhere. Francesco Molinari will also be towards the head of the market here and carries the hopes for a home win. Kaymer, despite a poor showing last week should NOT be behind Danny Willett in the market though, but all three are far too short here.The tourney may not come quick enough for some though, especially the likes of Eddie Pepperell, Soren Kjeldsen, Tyrell Hatton and Kristoffer Broberg to mention a handful in fine form. With this and five other events left before the Final Series kicks off in Turkey at the end of October, those in form will be all out to grab as much R2D points and cash as possible and see where it leaves them in the Ryder Cup standings. Matt Fitzpatrick, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrell Hatton are just three players that I fancy to make a challenge for a place and who's to say that Thomas Pieters won't win more between now and Hazeltine next year. With Lee Westwood, martin Kaymer and indeed Padraig Harrington looking like they will be playing more on the European Tour next season, the race for those elusive points could be quite interesting and whatever the outcome, skipper, Darren Clarke should at least have an in-form team to defend the trophy. So, that's my reference to the Ryder Cup qualification out of the way on here but be prepared to hear it every week on the TV commentaries !

Thomas Pieters grabbed his second win on tour to make it back to back wins last week, emphasizing how current form and confidence are key to succeeding more so than over previous course form. Lee Slattery backed that up last week when he chased home the Belgian having won the previous week in Moscow! 

Deutsche Bank Championship 2015

The second of the FedEx Cup play-offs tees off at TPC Boston on Friday this week, where Jason Day hopes the extra day's rest will help him keep his amazing run going as he seeks his fourth win in five starts. The field is now reduced to 100 players and Rory McIlroy returns to the action having returned from injury at the PGA Championship to finish in the TOP20. He also returns with the World Number One tag back on his shoulders following Jordan Spieth's missed cut at Plainfield Country Club last week. He's a tempting 9/1 shot in fairness, he'll be fresh (some will say not competitively fit), and he's a former TPC Boston winner back in 2012. The problem though this week is that TPC Boston will be a birdie-fest as it is every year and those that are in form right now should be contending again this week. Jason Day rightly leads the betting market but he's far too short to win again here when the field are so much capable of winning. Golf is in a good shape at the moment and I've often thought to myself if I leave the betting alone for awhile would I enjoy the coverage more? Well, the coverage needs to improve first, far too many brilliant golfers out there on the tour now that we seldom get to see, the powers that be seem more interested in showing the stars on the practice range or indeed signing autographs rather than showing some golf action. The FedEx Cup playoffs were set up to be exciting and they are I suppose but with so many players that can realistically win any of these events, I'd like to see some more action ! So, who can win it this week ? Just about any of them can ! Bubba Watson is probably the most in-form player at present without a win of late, and will be on many staking plans for this week at 22/1. The price seems very fair considering his last win was only seven starts back at The Travelers! His returns since read 13-mc-2-2-21-3. His third place finish last week may have been a distance from Jason Day but his game is in very good shape and when it comes to birdie-fests, Bubba usually makes the shortlist. Course form at TPC Boston though is not great and for this reason, I've decided to leave him be.

A hot putter will be required this week to complement a good tee to green game ! I should therefore be on board with Jason Day, Jimmy Walker, Russell Henley and perhaps Henrik Stenson. The latter two have good chances here this week, The Swede is best price 16/1, which is short for a player that doesn't win often enough, but is a player that seems to excel at this time of the year and has very good form in the FedEx Cup playoffs, having won it two years ago by winning here and at East Lake. But one player who is also playing extremely well but is falling short due in part to some poor putting of late is Justin Rose (20/1). Since his win in New Orleans, the Englishman has recorded five TOP10s in eight events. His GIR performance is worth noting, along with Stenson's, they are encouraging for this week's event. If Rose has worked on his putting this week and he can rev it up for the four days he will be in the mix come Monday. He's playing too well not to be contending.


I backed Robert Streb last week and after an encouraging start, he fell down the leaderboard the weekend. I won't abandon him just yet though; the 28 year old from Oklahoma has been in fine form this season, sits ninth in the rankings with  no missed cuts in his last eleven starts. Four of those resulted in TOP10s and of those, three were TOP5! He appeared a little agitated during coverage last week, I like to see a bit of that as it can often emphasize how a player is approaching the tournament; this man wants to compete! Winner of the McGladrey Classic almost twelve months ago, Streb is looking to close out a successful campaign with a big win. He was T-9th here last year and @ 60/1, I'm happy to keep him on side.

Webb Simpson is simmering of late as he tries to come to grips with the new putting technique. But it's improving as his results have shown. His first win on tour came at the Wyndham Championship, named his daughter Wyndham as a result, and has often expressed his fondness for the course and backed that up with a 6th placing two weeks ago. He seems to be very relaxed of late, and is focused on making it to East Lake (currently sits outside the TOP30).  He won this event back in 2011 and has posted a TOP20 and TOP10 (last year) since. Like Rose, a marked improvement in putting performance should see the former US Open Champion in contention.


2 pts e/w J.Rose @ 20/1
1 pt e/w R.Streb @ 60/1
1 pt e/w W.Simpson @ 66/1