A punters account of weekly golf bets and free tips on the European Tour (now DP World Tour) and the PGA with some LPGA & Challenge Tour selections. This blog is intended for readers over 18 years of age
Wednesday, 22 August 2012
FedEx Playoffs- The Barclays 2012
Its business end of the 2012 PGA Tour season now, with the FedEx Cup playoffs commencing in New York with The Barclays Championship on Thursday. Mega bucks up for grabs for any of the top 125 qualifiers. Of course, those ranked lowest now need to move up the standings (to top 70) to make it to next week but they will find it tough at Bethpage, host of the 2009 US Open where Lucas Glover prevailed over David Duval. The Black course will suit the big accurate hitters this week and will ultimately go against those struggling of late. That said, the 2009 US Open did produce a lot of surprises but I don’t expect the same this week as far too many are in excellent form as of late. One of those is recent PGA Champion, Rory McIlroy and this course will be his cup of tea. He finished top10 in 2009 too! But 7/1? If I was a big punter then maybe yes, and to be honest, I had contemplated half of my staking plan on Rory this week….but its not the value bet for me….there are some players at decent odds that can win this week.
Top of my list is the recent WGC winner, Keegan Bradley. Its been a fantastic 12 months for the 2011 PGA Champion and following his win at Bridgestone, he finished 3rd at the PGA this month, emphasising the form he is currently in. 25/1 for me is great value considering the form he is in and he could be the one to watch over the 4 playoff events. He didn’t play the 2009 US Open but he has played a lot of golf on this course in his amateur days, therefore he should know his way round it. A must pick for me here.
Second pick this week is Adam Scott. I am hoping the playoffs will come as a distraction of some sort following his heart wrenching Open exploits and that he will see this as a new challenge. The course should be right up his alley and if driving well and produces the sort of form he has shown this season a win here could be the perfect tonic to end the season on a high. 25/1 also available and the Aussie is sure to give me a run for my money.
Final pick is outsider, Kyle Stanley. He looked a real prospect earlier this year before going off the boil but the course could suit him also. His recent form has suggested he may be coming back into form, despite missing the cut at the PGA. I’m gonna take a punt at 150/1 with Ladbrokes who are paying 6 places this week
Wednesday, 8 August 2012
USPGA Championship 2012
Tomorrow, the final Major of the season tees off on the Pete Dye designed Kiawah Ocean Course in North Carolina where last weeks winner at Firestone, Keegan Bradley defends. This Major is rapidly becoming the 2nd hardest of the 4 Majors to win, but is still keeping a trend in being the Major that produces a first time major winner. That said Americans are still dominating despite Harrington, Kaymer & YE yang prevailing in recent years. I like both of the statistics- first time major winner and American to boot! To be honest I really want to back Dustin Johnson but the 33/1 on offer last Monday is well gone and there are alot of tipsters on him this week. Simply this course suits him and he has great Major credentials in past couple of years and will win one soon. But I 'm gonna be either brave or stupid and sidestep to oppose all the other tipsters seen as I have missed the good odds (the joys of busy workload during the day). Instead I'm siding with me new "mate", Jason Dufner. he should be coming here as defending champion but was pipped by Bradley but he has proven this year that he can contend when in the mix and is my top tip this week to win it @ 25/1. Another top 10 ten last week, he is in incredible form and his accuracy from tee to green will serve him well here.
The wind and the fact that 10 holes run along the coastline suggests that a links player of renown will do well. I want to back GMac again. He didn't play well on Sunday at the Open and his final day stats in Majors is poor thus giving me doubts, but one thing Graeme does have is confidence, and buckets of it. If he gets a good start and gets into the mix he may be a bit more patient this time round than he did in Blackpool last month. I'll still take him again at 40/1.
Third pick this week is Matt Kuchar @ 35/1.Ultra consistent performer who is Major Champion in waiting and this could be his week. If he gets his putting going he will definitely be up there and he can break his duck and keep the trand going for a win in the PGA as his first Major.
Fourth pick is Webb Simpson, the US Open champion. have to include him, he is the in form player alongside Dufner and simply cannot be left out and the 45/1 on offer is good value in my book.
My final pick for this week is to pick a big hitter as this is a big long course with genrous fairways. Its a toss up between Colsaerts, Woodland & Garrigus and I'll go with Robert Garrigus who has shown some decent form this season. He is 100/1, I'll have a nibble !
Wishing Padraig Harrington best of luck though. I really hope he contends this week, perhaps he was expecting it all to come together at St. Lythams and he will be quietly confident playing on this course in the wind with accuracy being a premium. Must be some money for him though as he was available Monday at 75/1 but I note he's down to 50s now ?
The wind and the fact that 10 holes run along the coastline suggests that a links player of renown will do well. I want to back GMac again. He didn't play well on Sunday at the Open and his final day stats in Majors is poor thus giving me doubts, but one thing Graeme does have is confidence, and buckets of it. If he gets a good start and gets into the mix he may be a bit more patient this time round than he did in Blackpool last month. I'll still take him again at 40/1.
Third pick this week is Matt Kuchar @ 35/1.Ultra consistent performer who is Major Champion in waiting and this could be his week. If he gets his putting going he will definitely be up there and he can break his duck and keep the trand going for a win in the PGA as his first Major.
Fourth pick is Webb Simpson, the US Open champion. have to include him, he is the in form player alongside Dufner and simply cannot be left out and the 45/1 on offer is good value in my book.
My final pick for this week is to pick a big hitter as this is a big long course with genrous fairways. Its a toss up between Colsaerts, Woodland & Garrigus and I'll go with Robert Garrigus who has shown some decent form this season. He is 100/1, I'll have a nibble !
Wishing Padraig Harrington best of luck though. I really hope he contends this week, perhaps he was expecting it all to come together at St. Lythams and he will be quietly confident playing on this course in the wind with accuracy being a premium. Must be some money for him though as he was available Monday at 75/1 but I note he's down to 50s now ?
Tuesday, 17 July 2012
The Open 2012
The Open is upon this week from Royal Lytham and St Annes, scene of David Duval & Tom Lehman’s sole Major victories in 2001 & 1996. American winners! Will there be one this week? Tiger? He always prepares well for the Majors, obviously, but although he has had some success lately his recent wins have come on courses that he likes and has vast experience on. The course week will be tough; the well documented rough will ruin anyone’s scorecard if it catches a ball in the wrong place. Accuracy is key this week. Tiger with iron off the tee can negotiate a score and I won’t be surprised to see him doing this with many three quarter shots in his bag. At 9/1 I have been tempted but when compiling the shortlist some others have better value at better odds even if they make a placing. Paddypower offers 7 places this week so this influences the selections.
I cannot drop Padraig Harrington this week can I ? I have sided with the twice former Champion for a few weeks now and he is playing very well. The putting let him down at Portrush on the Sunday but as per his performances at Augusta and Olympic he loves the tough tests and will be looking forward to it. I have already backed him at 28/1 but he is still available at 20/1 now.
My second selection this week is Dustin Johnson @ 50/1. The American has already won this year following a return from injury and has clearly demonstrated a liking for links golf. He should have won US Open at Pebble Beach in 2010, could have won at Whistling Straits. He has won tournaments at Pebble beach though and has good links form all round. 50/1 is too big and he could complete the USA hat-trick this week. He plays alongside GMAC who pipped him Pebble Beach, has a 09:30 start on Thursday, so a good start is possible and a good start is needed this week. Another American who could win is Rickie Fowler, excellent Open form but I think he still needs to serve his Major apprenticeship before he wins one. But Johnson has arrived very early for this one and is well rested up. I expect him to contend.
Third pick is Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Ladbrokes). Fantastic tee to green player and can putt when it matters. Has shown great consistency and can now contend on Sunday afternoons. He lost the PGA to Keegan Bradley when he should have won but has the bottle to win one now. If I was to pick another American I might have some interest in Stewart Cink, Open champion and excellent British Open form. Early start and could be great bet for first round leader.
I have to put in Ross Fisher. Great return to form the past few weeks and he has a penchant for links golf. Accuracy is strength and if he can limit the mistakes he will give us a great run at 80/1 over the 4days. It’s very open this year and I think he can prevail in one of the Majors and he is my Englishman to do well here this week over Westwood, Donald, Poulter & Rose. I would love to see Westwood win, so I’m leaving him out this week (maybe I need to give him some luck and not put my cash down on him).The other Englishmen mentioned should go well too.
My final pick is GMac. Decent form this year and came so close to a second US Open at Olympic last month. He will be confident of putting in a good effort here and the links format will be down his alley. 33/1 is still good value with proven credentials and I’m confident he is up for this. He is slightly preferred over Martin Kaymer who is still not back to his best despite some good rounds last week at castle Stuart. Former winner at the Dunhill, he can compete on links in the rain 7 wind but at 40/1 I’ll pass for the Northern Irishman instead.
So there is my list- queue 5 shot victory for Lee Westwood over Tiger Woods and Martin Kaymer!
TIP 1: 1 pt e/w P.Harrington @ 20/1 Ladbrokes
TIP 2: 1 pt e/w D.Johnson @ 50/1 Paddypower
TIP 3: 1 pt e/w J.Dufner @ 50/1 Ladbrokes
TIP 4: 1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 80/1 Paddypower
TIP 5: 1 pt e/w G.McDowell @ 33/1 Paddypower
TIP 6: 0.5 pts e/w FIRST ROUND LEADER S.Cink @ 100/1 Paddypower
I cannot drop Padraig Harrington this week can I ? I have sided with the twice former Champion for a few weeks now and he is playing very well. The putting let him down at Portrush on the Sunday but as per his performances at Augusta and Olympic he loves the tough tests and will be looking forward to it. I have already backed him at 28/1 but he is still available at 20/1 now.
My second selection this week is Dustin Johnson @ 50/1. The American has already won this year following a return from injury and has clearly demonstrated a liking for links golf. He should have won US Open at Pebble Beach in 2010, could have won at Whistling Straits. He has won tournaments at Pebble beach though and has good links form all round. 50/1 is too big and he could complete the USA hat-trick this week. He plays alongside GMAC who pipped him Pebble Beach, has a 09:30 start on Thursday, so a good start is possible and a good start is needed this week. Another American who could win is Rickie Fowler, excellent Open form but I think he still needs to serve his Major apprenticeship before he wins one. But Johnson has arrived very early for this one and is well rested up. I expect him to contend.
Third pick is Jason Dufner at 50/1 (Ladbrokes). Fantastic tee to green player and can putt when it matters. Has shown great consistency and can now contend on Sunday afternoons. He lost the PGA to Keegan Bradley when he should have won but has the bottle to win one now. If I was to pick another American I might have some interest in Stewart Cink, Open champion and excellent British Open form. Early start and could be great bet for first round leader.
I have to put in Ross Fisher. Great return to form the past few weeks and he has a penchant for links golf. Accuracy is strength and if he can limit the mistakes he will give us a great run at 80/1 over the 4days. It’s very open this year and I think he can prevail in one of the Majors and he is my Englishman to do well here this week over Westwood, Donald, Poulter & Rose. I would love to see Westwood win, so I’m leaving him out this week (maybe I need to give him some luck and not put my cash down on him).The other Englishmen mentioned should go well too.
My final pick is GMac. Decent form this year and came so close to a second US Open at Olympic last month. He will be confident of putting in a good effort here and the links format will be down his alley. 33/1 is still good value with proven credentials and I’m confident he is up for this. He is slightly preferred over Martin Kaymer who is still not back to his best despite some good rounds last week at castle Stuart. Former winner at the Dunhill, he can compete on links in the rain 7 wind but at 40/1 I’ll pass for the Northern Irishman instead.
So there is my list- queue 5 shot victory for Lee Westwood over Tiger Woods and Martin Kaymer!
TIP 1: 1 pt e/w P.Harrington @ 20/1 Ladbrokes
TIP 2: 1 pt e/w D.Johnson @ 50/1 Paddypower
TIP 3: 1 pt e/w J.Dufner @ 50/1 Ladbrokes
TIP 4: 1 pt e/w R.Fisher @ 80/1 Paddypower
TIP 5: 1 pt e/w G.McDowell @ 33/1 Paddypower
TIP 6: 0.5 pts e/w FIRST ROUND LEADER S.Cink @ 100/1 Paddypower
Wednesday, 11 July 2012
Scottish Open 2012
We are back on the links this week for the Scottish Open at Castle Stuart GC, Inverness. The inaugural hosting last year was reduced to 54 holes where Luke Donald emerged victorious. A great lineup this week, the week before The Open, will ensure the winner will need to be at top of his game if he is to win. I should sidestep Padraig Harrington being the week before the Open, but as always Pardraig will be out to win and but for his putter 2 weeks ago, he could have won his home open at Portrush. He can backed at 14/1 with Betpack where 6 places are on offer. No doubting his liking for links, he has been playing so well this season that the win is surely to come soon. Win this week and confidence will be sky high next week.
My second selection was a toss up between Nicholas Colsaerts & George Coetzee. The former did well here last year, did well in Ireland two weeks ago, but 20/1 is a bit skinny for the Belgian Bomber so I'll plumb for the South African at 40/1 also with Betpack. Martin Kaymer on paper looks value at 33/1 but poor showings both in Germany & France doesn't instill confidence in backing him....so he's bound to win now !
My third selection is proving more difficult each week, and perhaps I may have to review my staking plan going forward as a result. I'd better declare all of my shortlist contenders now rather than after the off ......Chris Wood,Louis Oosthuizen,Simon Dyson, Shane Lowry,Stephen Gallagher,Peter Whiteford and Alejandro Canizares were in the mix before I decided upon the Irishman and the Spaniard. Lowry went well here last year throwing in a 65, was brought up on links golf (won Irish Open at Baltray) and will feel no pressure this week. Canizares has spent a bit of time in the US and played very well at Portrush despite a 75 on Sunday dropping him down the field. I'll split my stakes to cover both with Lowry at 90/1 and Canizares at 200/1, both with Betpack
.
TIP 1: 2 pts win P.Harrington @ 14/1 Betpack
TIP 2: 1 pt e/w G.Coetzee @ 40/1 Betpack
TIP 3: 1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 90/1 Betpack
TIP 4: 1 pt e/w A.Canizares @ 200/1 Betpack
My second selection was a toss up between Nicholas Colsaerts & George Coetzee. The former did well here last year, did well in Ireland two weeks ago, but 20/1 is a bit skinny for the Belgian Bomber so I'll plumb for the South African at 40/1 also with Betpack. Martin Kaymer on paper looks value at 33/1 but poor showings both in Germany & France doesn't instill confidence in backing him....so he's bound to win now !
My third selection is proving more difficult each week, and perhaps I may have to review my staking plan going forward as a result. I'd better declare all of my shortlist contenders now rather than after the off ......Chris Wood,Louis Oosthuizen,Simon Dyson, Shane Lowry,Stephen Gallagher,Peter Whiteford and Alejandro Canizares were in the mix before I decided upon the Irishman and the Spaniard. Lowry went well here last year throwing in a 65, was brought up on links golf (won Irish Open at Baltray) and will feel no pressure this week. Canizares has spent a bit of time in the US and played very well at Portrush despite a 75 on Sunday dropping him down the field. I'll split my stakes to cover both with Lowry at 90/1 and Canizares at 200/1, both with Betpack
.TIP 1: 2 pts win P.Harrington @ 14/1 Betpack
TIP 2: 1 pt e/w G.Coetzee @ 40/1 Betpack
TIP 3: 1 pt e/w S.Lowry @ 90/1 Betpack
TIP 4: 1 pt e/w A.Canizares @ 200/1 Betpack
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